Tropical Cycone for Tonga on the way

[Lovelee]

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER ONE ISSUED FROM NATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE FUA’AMOTU AT 4:00PM TUESDAY 27 JANUARY 2009.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U,HA'APAI,TONGATAPU AND'EUA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F (1000 HECTOPASCAL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 SOUTH, 176.1 WEST OR ABOUT 235 KILOMETERS WESTNORTHWEST OF VAVA'U AT 1:00PM TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER TOMORROW. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK 08F MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO HA'APAI GROUP,TONGATAPU AND 'EUA IN 24 HOURS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NIUAS AND VAVAU GROUP SPREADING TO HA'APAI,TONGATAPU AND 'EUA TONIGHT. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS IN 24 HOURS ABOUT VAVA'U, HA'APAI,TONGATAPU AND 'EUA. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

    TIDES

    HIGH 08:30PM
    LOW 02:50AM

THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT FUA’AMOTU AT 4:00PM WAS 1007.8 MILLIBARS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9:30PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER.

[DazzaMc]

ABPW10 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261400Z-270600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S 176.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NUKU'ALOFA, TONGA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 261000Z ASCAT PASS. THE LLCC LIES
POLEWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODER-
ATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THIS SHEAR AND ALLOW THE
DISTURBANCE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[DazzaMc]

[Lovelee]

I predict that will break up before doing too much damage 

[DazzaMc]

I haven't really looked yet!