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Tropical Cyclone 15P (Innis)

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DazzaMc
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« on: February 18, 2009, 05:11:00 am »

Tropical Cyclone 15P (Innis) is a small little weak cyclone heading our way. At this point it's looking to cross the country around the middle somewhere...

There wont be a heap of wind in it but it's likely we will get a fai bit of rain.

Details below.


WTPS31 PGTW 180300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 160.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 160.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 31.4S 159.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 35.8S 160.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 160.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (INNIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SHEARED
FROM THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION BY OVER 90 NM. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS TC 15P HAS INCREASED TRACK SPEED AND HAS MOVED INTO A REGION
OF UNFAVORABLE SST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC
15P HAS LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO AN
ACCELERATION OF THE TRACK SPEED. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
IMPINGED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HALTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BASED
ON THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASED SST, INCREASED
TRACK SPEED, AND THE DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING AS TC 15P CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EVEN LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN



« Last Edit: February 18, 2009, 09:46:45 pm by DazzaMc » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2009, 09:48:25 pm »

Stormy weather on the way

Tropical Cyclone Innis is heading for New Zealand, with weather forecasters warning of heavy rain and strong winds in many places on Friday and over the weekend.

The low pressure system was upgraded to a category one tropical cyclone last night and is now off the Queensland coast heading south.

The tropical cyclone is expected to decay into a deep depression as it nears central New Zealand on Friday but MetService is warning it will still be intense enough to bring heavy rain and wind for most.

Heavy rain is expected across the western and central North Island, as well as the Tararua range, ranges of Nelson, Buller, Westland and northern Fiordland on Friday.

Weather warnings are possible in the hill country from Taranaki to the central North Island and eastern Bay of Plenty, and as far north as the Kaimai Range and the coastal hills of southern Waikato, also about the ranges of northwest Nelson on Friday, Metservice says.

Warnings may also be necessary for the Tararua Range, the Marlborough Sounds, the Richmond Range and the ranges from Buller to northern Fiordland.

Metservice advises people to keep up to date with weather forecasts and note that streams and rivers are likely to rise quickly.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4851838a11.html

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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2009, 09:50:28 pm »

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE HILL COUNTRY FROM TARANAKI TO CENTRAL
NORTH ISLAND AND EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY, KAIMAI RANGE, COASTAL HILLS
OF SOUTHERN WAIKATO, TARARUA RANGE, RANGES OF NELSON (INCLUDING THE
RICHMOND RANGE) AND RANGES FROM BULLER TO NORTHERN FIORDLAND.


ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1137hrs 18-Feb-2009

HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND, ALSO THE
TARARUA RANGE, RANGES OF NELSON, BULLER, WESTLAND AND NORTHERN
FIORDLAND ON FRIDAY.

A small Tropical Cyclone, named Innis, is expected to merge with a
trough currently over eastern Australia and should then move south
over the Tasman Sea on Friday as a larger low. An associated front,
accompanied by very warm and humid air, sweeps across the North
Island and much of the South Island on Friday, then stalls over
southern New Zealand as the low becomes slow moving off Fiordland
late Friday and into Saturday.

The front should bring a period of strong winds and heavy rain to
many regions in the north and west of both islands on Friday.

Warning amounts are likely in the hill country from Taranaki to the
central North Island and eastern Bay of Plenty, and as far north as
the Kaimai Range and the coastal hills of southern Waikato, also
about the ranges of northwest Nelson on Friday.

Warnings may also be necessary for the Tararua Range, the Marlborough
Sounds, the Richmond Range and the ranges from Buller to northern
Fiordland.

A prolonged period of easterly rain is also likely about South
Canterbury and Otago from late Friday through Saturday. Heaviest
falls will probably be near the eastern hills north of Dunedin
although at this stage it is uncertain if amounts will reach warning
criteria.

People are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts and note
that streams and rivers are likely to rise quickly.

This Watch will be reviewed by 11:30am Thursday 19th February

Forecast prepared by: Chris Noble

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php?alias=severeweatherwatches
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2009, 04:38:05 am »

 Grin
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2009, 08:56:28 pm »

Watch the weather this weekend folks. If you live in a area prone to flooding then all the more - we have a heap of rain heading our way. It should be short lived, but it's going to absolutely piss down in some areas.

Be careful out there!
« Last Edit: February 19, 2009, 09:30:33 pm by DazzaMc » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2009, 08:59:28 pm »

Issued by MetService at 07:44pm 19-Feb-2009

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ZEALAND ON FRIDAY.

A deepening low in the Tasman Sea is moving south and should lie close to south Westland by midnight Friday. An active front preceded by strong northerlies and very moist subtropical air should sweep across the North Island during Friday bringing a period of intense rain. The rainfall warning now covers the whole northern half of the North Island north of a line from Taranaki to Ruapehu to East Cape.The heaviest falls are likely to be on Mt Taranaki and in the ranges of Bay of Plenty but the rain is likely to be very heavy at times over the whole area.Starting from early Friday morning a period of heavy rain is also expected for the Tararua ranges, Nelson ranges, Marlborough Sounds,and the ranges of Westland. Many other regions are expected to receive significant amounts of rain, but not enough to justify a warning. A heavy rain watch is also in force for parts of Buller Canterbury Otago and Southland. People in all of these areas should watch for rapidly rising streams and rivers during Friday. The rain in many North Island areas may be particularly intense at times leading to surface flooding and difficult driving conditions.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS FOLLOWS:

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED: THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH ISLAND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TARANAKI TO RUAPEHU TO EAST CAPE. ALSO THE TARARUA RANGES,THE RANGES OF NELSON AND WESTLAND AND THE MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS. FORECAST:

TARANAKI:Rain expected to become heavy from early Friday morning. In the 12 hours from 3am to 3pm Friday expect 60 to 80mm over much of the Taranaki area and up to 150mm over Mt Taranaki.

NORTHLAND AUCKLAND WAIKATO WAITOMO TAUMARUNUI COROMANDEL PENINSULA TAUPO and NORTHERN TAIHAPE:Rain is expected to become widespread overnight and to become heavier during Friday morning. In the 14 hours from 4am to 6pm Friday expect 60 to 80mm in many areas and up to 100mm about higher ground in the central North Island. Rainfall rates may reach 25mm per hour at times.

BAY OF PLENTY:Rain is expected to develop during Friday morning. In the 18 hours from 6am to midnight Friday expect 80-100mm rain in many areas and up to 150 mm about the ranges.

TARARUA RANGES:Rain is expect to develop early morning and become heavier during the morning.In the 12 hours from 4am to 4pm Friday expect 80 to 120mm rain.Heaviest falls are likely to be late morning when rainfall rates may reach 30mm per hour.

RANGES OF NORTHWEST NELSON, RICHMOND RANGES AND THE MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS:Rain is expected to become heavy early Friday morning.In the 12 hours from 3am to 3pm Friday expect 60 to 80mm rain.The heaviest falls are likely to be late morning when rainfall rates may reach 20mm per hour.

RANGES OF WESTLAND SOUTH OF OTIRA:Rain is expected to set in overnight and become heavier by dawn on Friday.In the 24 hours from 6am Friday to 6am Saturday expect 100 to 150mm rain.Further heavy rain is expected at times through the rest of Saturday.Rainfall rates may reach 25mm per hour at times.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres over the South Island.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00am Friday 20-Feb-2009
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2009, 09:01:05 pm »

Issued at: 8:51 pm 19 Feb 2009 NZDT

Amended Discussion: An active trough is expected to bring widespread heavy rain to many areas of the North Island, moving eastwards from Auckland around early afternoon to Bay of Plenty in the evening. There is a moderate risk of squally thunderstorms from Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty, with rainfall rates 15-25mm per hour. There is also a risk of locally heavier falls of 35mm and hour. As a result, streams are expected to rise rapidly and there is a risk of localised flash flooding. A lower risk of thunderstorms extends down into central regions from Mt Egmont to East Cape.


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