Message #176433

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from STUFF/Fairfax NZ....

Human-induced global warming:
Faster than ever and accelerating!

11:00AM - Tuesday, 14 November 2017


Warming exceeded 1°C above mid-nineteenth-century levels in 2017.
 — Photograph: David Gray.

HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING is happening faster than ever and accelerating.

And it's increasing at a rate that means there's little time left to achieve goals of the Paris climate agreement, researchers say.

A tool to measure the rate of global warming called the Global Warming Index — developed by an international team led by Victoria University's Professor Dave Frame — showed the acceleration of warming.

Dr Karsten Haustein from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom and lead author of a paper on the index said global warming had risen at a rate of 0.16 degrees Celsius per decade over the past 20 years.

“Worryingly, it appears to be accelerating, despite the recent slowdown in carbon dioxide emissions, because of trends in other climate pollutants, notably methane.”


The Global Warming Index is a continuously updated index of human-induced warming.

The release of methane gas from ruminant livestock — sheep and cattle — amounted to almost a third of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions, and it was the largest contributor, according to Landcare Research.

Methane also accounted for over 40 percent of all emissions in terms of global warming potential, Landcare Research said.

Warming exceeded 1°C above mid-nineteenth-century levels in 2017.

Frame said: “A robust, continuously updated index of human-induced warming — the only component of global temperatures we have any control over — is essential to monitor progress toward meeting temperature goals.”

“We hope the Global Warming Index will provide this essential information to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process.”

“Using our index, as well as ClimateClock.net, in conjunction with carbon budget estimates based on current emissions, the remaining time until we cross the anthropogenic warming target of 1.5°C or 2°C can be monitored continuously.”

Haustein said global temperatures could be pushed up temporarily by El Niño events or down by volcanic eruptions.

“We combine temperature observations with measurements of drivers of climate change to provide an up-to-date estimate of the contribution of human influence to global warming.”

Frame said a consistent measure was important so that when it hit 2°C, it didn't fluctuate based on factors other than human-induced warming.

The index is intended to provide improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets, with the potential to reduce climate policy volatility.

The findings were announced in a paper for the Nature research journal Scientific Reports.

• THE CLIMATE CLOCK

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Related to this topic:

 • Livestock and global warming

 • Climate change to hit insurance

 • NZ to go big on climate change

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/98851471