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Detecting Earthquakes Before They Strike


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Author Topic: Detecting Earthquakes Before They Strike  (Read 454 times)
DazzaMc
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« on: July 06, 2009, 12:36:28 pm »

Detecting Earthquakes Before They Strike

Earthquakes are feared because they seem to strike without prior warning. Seismologists are good at estimating the probability of large earthquakes within timescales of years or decades: "There is a 62.4% probability that one or more earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 or larger will hit the San Francisco Bay Area before 2032", says a US Geological Survey website. Clearly, we should be able to do better.  In fact, we probably can.

To develop an effective earthquake early warning system we have to first understand what happens in the hypocenter deep in the Earth, where tectonic forces stress rocks to the breaking point. My scientific work on positive hole charge carriers, which is done at the SETI Institute and the NASA Ames Research Center, seems to provide a good start.

Laboratory experiments tell us that, when a rock is stressed, it turns into a battery. Something similar must happen in all hypocenters prior to catastrophic failure.

A battery is a device that can deliver electric currents. However, for a current to flow, the battery circuit must be closed. In other words, if a stream of positive holes is to flow out of a stressed rock volume, the electrons must follow suit.

That's where the difficulty lies. Rocks are hole conductors but cannot conduct electrons. The electrons, co-activated in the stressed rock volume, have to take a different path. The situation is like in an electrochemical battery, where cations flow through the electrolyte but electrons have to hitch a ride through the wire connecting the anode to the cathode.

It appears that, occasionally, the Earth manages to generate powerful electric currents flowing out of the hypocenter, indicating that the battery circuit had closed. The currents flow in pulses. They produce potentially powerful electromagnetic signals at extremely low and ultralow frequencies (ELF/ULF).

However, there is a catch: ELF/ULF waves coming from below will be totally reflected when they hit the Earth's surface beyond a certain angle. We don't know yet how large this angle is, but suspect that it is pretty steep. This means that only ELF/ULF waves within a relatively narrow cone will have a chance to make it through the Earth surface.

To record those ELF/ULF signals directly one has to be close to the epicenter. This is rare.

At the same time any ELF/ULF waves, which make it through the Earth's surface, will be beamed straight up into the ionosphere. Once there, they will spread within the ionospheric waveguide and travel around the globe. Usually, it is hard to tell from where they came.

The moderate Alum Rock earthquake, magnitude 5.4, rattled the southern San Francisco Bay in late 2007. For those who experienced it at close quarters, it was a brief, hard jolt. Overall this event was unremarkable except that one of QuakeFinder's CalMagNet stations, which are spread over California along the San Andreas Fault, was barely 2 km from the epicenter. 

A new paper, just published by "Natural Hazards and Earth System Science," describes that three suspected pre-earthquake indicators were recorded by this QuakeFinder station: (i) short bursts of electromagnetic radiation, 10-30 sec long, increasing in number over the last two weeks before the quake, (ii) a 14-hours long episode of intense air ionization on the day before the earthquake, and (iii) a continuous wave of ULF magnetic pulsations, lasting for nearly 1 hour during the time of the most intense air ionization.  In addition, satellites picked up enhanced infrared radiation emitted from several areas around the earthquake site.  Together these observations make a strong case that they are all related to this earthquake BEFORE it struck.

With observations like these the future for earthquake early warning looks bright. Once the basic physical processes are understood, we can bring to bear many different techniques, both space-bound and on the ground, each capable of providing a different piece of the puzzle. 

This paper can be downloaded from:
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/585/2009/nhess-9-585-2009.html
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pantherrr0
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2009, 01:33:47 pm »

mmmm we still cannot predict such large scale events due intial conditions being dependant on a resolution lower than the unit size we can no longer measure with out changing  its properties =(  entropy in the  system,  or  in otehr words chaos ( your god, which has certainly had chaotic effects on what would otehrwise could be a sane rational person)  and the effects of  are slightly out of reach for mathmatical mapping. but we can work towards  using marcoscopic averages  to build  the basis of theory and completly remove 'god' from the equation

puzzeled why you would  imply that your imaginary friend is embodied destruction but i guess  'god' works in strange ways
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Lovelee
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2009, 01:55:05 pm »

As summary of Dazzas BS follows.
We still have no clues on how to predict an act of God.

While I have no leanings at all to 'gods' I fail to comprehend how anyone could imagine we could predict an act which has no precursors, such as an earthquake.

The best thing to keep an eye on IMO is your animals and those around you - however, they will only give a moments notice  Smiley
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pantherrr0
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2009, 02:38:11 pm »

there must be some way that you could model where quake will happen  but im guessing that we have a fair way  to go before we can acess all the information we would need  fotr it,  core currents and stress levels along tectonic breaks  for example.  agree on the animals thing   but that brings up  the question of how do they know ^^
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Sir Blodsnogger
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2009, 04:34:30 am »

Instead of all your jargon mumbo jumbo Jamba Pantherr why dont you quit making it up as you go  and admit you have not got a clue how to predict an act of God.
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Lovelee
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2009, 11:22:56 am »

In 373 B.C., historians recorded that animals, including rats, snakes and weasels, deserted the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the place.

Accounts of similar animal anticipation of earthquakes have surfaced across the centuries since. Catfish moving violently, chickens that stop laying eggs and bees leaving their hive in a panic have been reported. Countless pet owners claimed to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before the ground shook—barking or whining for no apparent reason, or showing signs of nervousness and restlessness.

But precisely what animals sense, if they feel anything at all, is a mystery. One theory is that wild and domestic creatures feel the Earth vibrate before humans. Other ideas suggest they detect electrical changes in the air or gas released from the Earth.

Earthquakes are a sudden phenomenon. Seismologists have no way of knowing exactly when or where the next one will hit. An estimated 500,000 detectable quakes occur in the world each year. Of those, 100,000 can be felt by humans, and 100 cause damage.

One of the world's most earthquake-prone countries is Japan, where devastation has taken countless lives and caused enormous damage to property. Researchers there have long studied animals in hopes of discovering what they hear or feel before the Earth shakes in order to use that sense as a prediction tool.

American seismologists, on the other hand, are skeptical. Even though there have been documented cases of strange animal behavior prior to earthquakes, the United States Geological Survey, a government agency that provides scientific information about the Earth, says a reproducible connection between a specific behavior and the occurrence of a quake has never been made.

"What we're faced with is a lot of anecdotes," said Andy Michael, a geophysicist at USGS. "Animals react to so many things—being hungry, defending their territories, mating, predators—so it's hard to have a controlled study to get that advanced warning signal."

In the 1970s, a few studies on animal prediction were done by the USGS "but nothing concrete came out of it," said Michael. Since that time the agency has made no further investigations into the theory.

Erratic Behavior in Dogs

Researchers around the world continue to pursue the idea, however. In September 2003 a medical doctor in Japan made headlines with a study that indicated erratic behavior in dogs, such as excessive barking or biting, could be used to forecast quakes.

There have also been examples where authorities have forecast successfully a major earthquake, based in part on the observation of the strange antics of animals. For example, in 1975 Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of Haicheng, a city with one million people, just days before a 7.3-magnitude quake. Only a small portion of the population was hurt or killed. If the city had not been evacuated, it is estimated that the number of fatalities and injuries could have exceeded 150,000.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1111_031111_earthquakeanimals.html

I have no doubt at all that animals feel or sense something b4 an EQ.  Anecdotes they may well be, but there are thousands of tales of animals reacting differently b4 an EQ.

My own experience, one that really stands out for me, was in the late 50s, in Wellington.  We were staying with friends who lived on the Akatarawa range.  We were attending a dog show in Wellies and our dogs were out in the kennels with our friends dogs.  We were all inside, it was about 7pm.  The dogs all started howling and barking.  Uncle went out to yell at them, and it was like they didnt hear him.  He walked back into the house saying I think theres a EQ coming and within moments we were ducking for cover, us kids sent under the table and the parents freaking  Grin  It was the worst Ive been in, winter time there was a fire in the fireplace, I was watching the fireplace through the shaking.  The mortar cracked, the bricks moved in many directions and burning wood from the fire tumbled onto the hearth.

That was my first experience of animals reacting b4 a quake, whether they feel the tremors because of their attachment to the ground or not I dont know, but I dont doubt their ability.
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pantherrr0
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2009, 01:01:44 pm »

im curious as to weather a quake has any efffect on the flow in the liquid core.  the em/ vibrations   in regards to animals i think would be most likely. saw the sheep  bolt often enough myself
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Im2Sexy4MyPants
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2009, 12:49:44 pm »

I believe and have seen many times that animals seem to have a kind esp and they often know things before things happen.

My mother had a small dog it would sleep soundly while all day while she was away and then jump up from its deep sleep and look out the window a few seconds before she arrived home.

When i was kid i was watching a speed boat there was a dog on it and it jumped off it a split second later the boat exploded, there was a guy on the boat he went flying up into the air but survived and was fished out the water later and was OK.
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Are you sick of the bullshit from the sewer stream media spewed out from the usual Ken and Barby dickless talking point look a likes.

If you want to know what's going on in the real world...
And the many things that will personally effect you.
Go to
http://www.infowars.com/

AND WAKE THE F_ _K UP
Sir Blodsnogger
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2009, 11:36:46 am »

Oh yes sheep are far more advanced than the typical New Zealander when it comes to predicting an earthquake.


WHY IS THAT?
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pantherrr0
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2009, 01:46:28 pm »

 Huh maybe because that 'flock of sheep' doesnt go to  church ?
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Sir Blodsnogger
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2009, 07:13:06 pm »

Nope.
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Kiwithrottlejockey
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2009, 12:00:12 am »


GOD is a figment of the imagination of some people.


Perhaps you'd like to PROVE otherwise, Gommie?  Cool
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AnFaolchudubh
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2009, 03:58:15 pm »

Sheep know before the shepherd that a quake is coming. God protects his sheep bro  Wink
The shepherd is busy contemplating evolution. You see he forgot to tune in to God.

That is because he got nothing but static!
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Stupid people are not an endangered species so why are we protecting them
R. S. OhAllmurain
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2009, 06:24:01 pm »

If you happen to live in an area where there are pheasants, they create mayhem several hours before a quake.
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AnFaolchudubh
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2009, 11:11:54 am »

and the answer to the problem is.
The sheep are more intelligent than the idiot predictors of earthquakes who call themselves scientists.
In a nut shell New Zealand scientists are more dumb than sheep . Dazza you must also believe this truism surely.

It is true sheep are dumb, I guess that is why christians/ creationilists are know as sheep and jesus the shepard!
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Stupid people are not an endangered species so why are we protecting them
R. S. OhAllmurain
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2009, 02:02:36 pm »

FAOL WHATS WRONG WITH YOU.
wHY DO YOU FEEL COMPELLED TO ANSWER FOR THAT SLIMY DOG DUNG DAZZA?
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AnFaolchudubh
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2009, 02:52:28 pm »

FAOL WHATS WRONG WITH YOU.
wHY DO YOU FEEL COMPELLED TO ANSWER FOR THAT SLIMY DOG DUNG DAZZA?

I'm not answering for him gommie, he is old enough to fight his own battles, I just don't like slimy dog dung arrogant bornagain fundy creationalists... like you!
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Stupid people are not an endangered species so why are we protecting them
R. S. OhAllmurain
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2009, 05:53:21 am »

Thanks for small mercies. It would be a worry if you declared that you did like me.
Lissen up faol
Your prancing around in here like a turkey before Christmas is funny to watch. Have you got any other mooooves man?
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AnFaolchudubh
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2009, 03:39:53 pm »

Thanks for small mercies. It would be a worry if you declared that you did like me.
Lissen up faol
Your prancing around in here like a turkey before Christmas is funny to watch. Have you got any other mooooves man?

None of your business! it is a bit hard for someone to actually prance around inside a computer gommie!
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Stupid people are not an endangered species so why are we protecting them
R. S. OhAllmurain
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2009, 10:14:21 am »

Get your gynaecological check up before the christmas rush faol you old tart

You never passed biology at school did you gommie... explains it all really! I always knew you weren't the sharpest knife in the draw now you've proved it... thanks!
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Stupid people are not an endangered species so why are we protecting them
R. S. OhAllmurain

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