....hope so
You may not like it, but the New Zealand flag will change stuff nation video
Where do you stand with the NZ flag?
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We asked Kiwis to show us their flag pride. Where does yours lie?
OPINION: I want to declare a few things straight off the bat. Firstly, I am very pro change. Secondly, I do like the proposed new flag. Lastly, for those that are politically-minded, I am very much left of centre in my views.
Now, here's the thing, the flag WILL change, and before all the keep-the-flag advocates get upset and quote polls at me, I do have a very sound argument to support this view. You may not like it, but the flag will change.
Let's first of all look at some simple facts.
The political facts are simple. The three largest parties currently in parliament - National, Labour and the Greens - all have a party policy to change the flag. If Labour had won the last election this would still be happening. So if we sweep past the can't-agree-with-each-other rhetoric, the conclusion is that the political will is there for change, from both sides of centre, and history tells us that will eventually lead to change.
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Another fact is that prior to this debate there was no real public push for change, no active lobby group, no section of society protesting, challenging or campaigning. There may have been a section of New Zealand that wanted change, but it was generally a very silent section.
However, since the debate started lobby groups have sprung up, some very enthusiastic and very vocal, with strong membership. A public campaign for change has started, and it is significant. It may still be a vocal minority, but it isn't a small minority and it is very active. History suggests that these types of groups make change, especially if they have political support, which this cause has by the bucket load.
Now that the lobbyists for change have an alternative, they also have a very powerful tool, which can be used to enact change.
Jeff and Nicole Lowe support the Silver Fern flag "to show that New Zealand is a truly independent country looking towards the future".
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Jeff and Nicole Lowe support the Silver Fern flag "to show that New Zealand is a truly independent country looking towards the future".
I am sure many in the Keep Our Flag camp are hoping that the vote will happen, they will win and the whole idea of a flag change will just fade away. This is very naive, and very, very unlikely.
The newly-founded change the flag lobby groups will treat any loss at the referendum as a mere setback, they won't see it as the end of the journey. Especially if the vote is close - anything above a third of the vote will be considered significant.
Let's crunch some numbers: 3.25 million people are registered to vote. The highest turnout for a referendum in New Zealand has been 80 per cent. The first flag referendum was about 50 per cent. So if we do the maths with a top turn out we can expect 2.6 million votes. With a low turnout we can expect 1.63 million.
If a third of the vote is for change then we could have between 540,000 to 870,000 people wanting change. That's not a small minority. The thing is the vote is quite possibly going to be closer, and a high turnout, coupled with a 40 per cent vote for change, means over 1 million people could easily vote for the new flag. If that happens the pro-change lobby groups will be very inspired, and energised.
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The campaign for change will not end with referendum if the vote to change is rejected. It will mark a new beginning. The alternative flag will not go away. It will be everywhere, on people's personal flag poles, at sports events, on t-shirts, etc. It will be everywhere. It will become a norm.
Many people will start to assume it is already our flag. Its use may even overtake the old flag in many situations. It would have become a part of our national psyche and culture. Eventually the law will have to catch up.
In 1977 God Defend New Zealand legally became our national anthem. This surprised many New Zealanders who had assumed for years it was our official anthem, because we had been singing it for years, and it even was played at the 1975 Olympics. The flag change could progress in exactly the same way.
There are a couple of other really important considerations. One is the current factions. There are four distinct groups at the moment, and two groups are very capable of swaying. There is the vote-for-the-alternative faction, there is the keep-the-current-flag faction, there is the sizeable (if the chat rooms and discussion groups are a guide) group who are pro-change but just don't like the current alternative, and there is the "I don't like the cost" and "I don't like John Key" faction.
The last three groups are all going to vote to keep the flag. The last group could easily flip if it becomes a Labour initiative, and the process is cheaper. The second-to-last group is interesting, for various reasons many people in this group strongly dislike the current flag, and this dislike, may finally (given time) guide them to vote for the alternative, because it is the better of the two options.
Nothing scientific here, and I may be wrong, but my sense is that the people who actually like or love our current flag are not the majority. Polls show how people will vote, not why. A majority poll result showing that people want to keep the current flag does not indicate love for the flag, as many who hate the current flag will still vote for it.
So how will it play out? Well this is my prediction: If the vote in this referendum is to keep our current flag, then the campaign for change will dig itself in. The public interest in change will continue to grow, the flag will become more common. My guess is, that by the general election 2020, New Zealand will be ready to vote on this option again, and it will be included in the general election process, therefore negating the high mail-out cost associated with this referendum.
The Key haters, the cost-of-the-exercise haters and the hate-the-current-flag-but-not-keen-on-the-alternative groups will jump camps. And so in 2020, it will romp in, with a huge majority.
That's if it doesn't change in the upcoming vote, which is still a possibility.
The simple fact is, a noise for change has started, and it won't shut up until the change happens, and this upcoming referendum won't stop the change campaign, even if change is voted down.
The flag is going to change.
Where do you stand on the flag debate? We're producing a video of how New Zealanders feel on this issue. Submit your photo or video by hitting the green button or emailing
stuffnation@stuff.co.nz - Stuff.co.nz