The Northland byelection

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

John Key: “Mr Peters has ‘zero’ chance of winning the Northland byelection.”


• Winston Peters an early favourite for Northland byelection — poll

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from The New Zealand Herald....

Shock lead adds weight to NZ First campaign

By JOHN ARMSTRONG | 5:00AM - Friday, March 06, 2015


New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. — Photo: Alan Gibson.

WHATEVER spin National tries to put on last night's 3News-Reid Research byelection poll in the seat of Northland, the result will have sent shockwaves through the ranks of the governing party.

Taking such an early lead over his National rival in the campaign will give Winston Peters' bandwagon even more momentum.

Peters' support registered at 35 percent in the poll, against 30 percent for National's candidate Mark Osborne. It would be unwise to put too much stock in the exactitude of those numbers. As a minimum, however, the poll answers a crucial question: does the New Zealand First leader have any chance of winning the seat. That he clearly has a chance should see more voters clambering aboard, far less fearful of casting a wasted vote.

The poll will leave National's tacticians more than perplexed. Nationwide, National is still polling at the levels which secured victory in last September's general election. Yet, it is seemingly in serious trouble in one of its supposedly safe seats.

If there is a comparison to be made, it is with Labour's defeat in the 1985 Timaru byelection which was held some 10 months after the election of a Labour Government which became hugely popular, especially in metropolitan areas.

Initially, however, the sweeping economic reforms implemented by Sir Roger Douglas saw the removal of the cushion of agricultural subsidies and hit rural New Zealand very hard. Timaru went National.

Peters likewise may well be pushing a similar button in rural New Zealand by focusing on the notion — real or imagined — that Northland has been taken for granted for too long by National, that the electorate is missing out on the economic recovery and is instead suffering from severe Government neglect.

Peters' message is that Northland voters have been granted a unique and unexpected opportunity to make themselves heard by the Beehive and — knowing the modus operandi of John Key — able to extract some promises and concessions.

Peters is certainly being greeted locally like the return of the Prodigal Son. His means of transport — a large, specially-painted bus — doubles as a huge mobile New Zealand First billboard and as a backdrop for the street meetings beloved by a politician who believes in campaigning the old way by making hard-hitting speeches to whatever throng he can muster, rather than relying on photo-opportunities to sell his message.

But one poll does not make a trend. Moreover, polling specific electorates can go horribly wrong.

Nevertheless, all eyes will be glued to TVNZ's Q&A on Sunday morning which will add to the drama by revealing the result of a One News-Colmar Brunton poll of the electorate.

• John Armstrong is The New Zealand Herald's chief political commentator.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-political-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502734&objectid=11412532

[reality]

We need Peters to win...the NZ dollar is too high..a Peters win will likely see it drop😜

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

ROFLMAO....Mr “STUPID” is back from his pretend job/holiday/life.

Have you got bored with your sad-sack existence in your hole?

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from TV3 News....

Can National's newbie catch Winston Peters?

By DAN SATHERLEY| 12:47PM - Friday, 06 May 2015



NATIONAL is confident its relatively unknown candidate for the Northland by-election has what it takes to topple 40-year veteran Winston Peters.

The first poll of the by-election, to be held on March 28th, has Mr Peters in a shock 5 percent lead — surprising because the seat was won by departing former National MP Mike Sabin by more than 9,000 votes.

National's Mark Osborne has only three weeks to claw it back.

“I'm not surprised a senior citizen like Winston, with 40 years political experience has a higher name recognition,” says National's Botany MP Jami-Lee Ross.

“Mark Osborne was selected six days ago. He works in the local council, his wife and he run a business successfully in Northland. He's someone who's on the ground working hard up there in Northland. Winston lives in Auckland and commutes to Wellington to work,” Mr Ross said on Firstline this morning.

“Give Mark Osborne another couple of weeks and you'll be seeing him well above Winston.”

But Mr Ross' confidence isn't shared by political commentator Chris Trotter.

“I was surprised at National's choice — he's a very inexperienced politician, and I think he'll struggle in a race against an old tusker like Winston Peters,” he said.

“I saw on TV3's bulletin last night the smiling face of Winston, the big bus, the ‘Hang on, Help is on its Way’ theme song, and I just thought, this is going to be very hard to stop.”

It's not just Mr Osborne's inexperience that could hinder his chances — Mr Sabin's resignation might have hurt the party in the electorate.

“Their supporters need to be drifting away, for whatever reason,” says Mr Trotter. “The Sabin question is probably one of the big reasons.”

Labour voters need to make a call on whether to vote for Willow-Jean Prime, or throw their support behind Mr Peters, who worked relatively well with the previous Labour Government.

“There is I think a disillusionment with the incumbent party, and the obvious truth of the matter is that Labour is not going to win the seat under any circumstances,” says Mr Trotter.

Ms Prime is well back, polling about half what Mr Osborne is and nearly 20 points behind Mr Peters.

“There is a shadow cast over the National Party at the moment, under which we are having this by-election,” says Labour's Jacinda Ardern.

“She is a fantastic candidate, but it is about her being able to build momentum as well up there… I don't think we should be too pre-emptive about what's going to happen. We've got a little bit of the campaign to go as yet.”

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/can-nationals-newbie-catch-winston-peters-2015030612

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from The Dominion Post....

John Key to boost National's Northland by-election campaign

By VERNON SMALL and STACEY KIRK | 4:10PM - Friday, 06 March 2015


STIRRING IT UP: NZ First leader Winston Peters is leading the Northland by-election race,
according to an early poll.

PRIME MINISTER John Key appears to have changed his tune on the Northland by-election after this week saying NZ First leader Winston Peters had “zero” chance of wresting the true-blue seat off National.

Key said in Nelson today that National had “a big job to do” in Northland after a 3News-Reid Research poll showed its candidate, Mark Osborne, with 30 percent support against Peters' 35 percent.

Labour candidate Willow-Jean Prime was on 16 percent.

Key, who will campaign in Northland tomorrow, said he would make three visits to the electorate.

“That's a bit more than I normally would in a by-election,” he said.

“It's just part of the focus of us wanting to make sure we retain that seat and it's important from the Government's agenda point of view.”

He said that without that seat it would be “much more challenging” to advance the party's roading and broadband plans and Resource Management Act reforms.

A defeat for National would not overturn the Government, but it would probably make it more difficult for National to pass its programme.

It would have 59 seats in the 121-seat Parliament and would need two votes from a combination of the Maori Party's two seats or the single votes of ACT and UnitedFuture.


CAMPAIGN MODE: PM John Key will be on the campaign trail in Northland this weekend.

Key said he was confident National voters would turn out and back Osborne.

He was a strong candidate who knew local issues well and was “young” and wanted to build “a long career in Parliament” — an apparent dig at Peters, who will turn 70 this year.

Key said his party had a “big ground force up there and there's a lot of support for a National-led government”.

“We've got a big job to do and we'll be working hard,” he said.

The 3News poll was “interesting” and some of the voters from the parties “somewhat opposed to National” were coalescing around Peters, and that was natural in a by-election.

The seat was left vacant by the sudden resignation of National's Mike Sabin.

Key is expected to visit local businesses tomorrow and have a series of public walkabouts in various spots throughout Northland.

The National Party said the timing of the visit was in no way related to the poll.

“This time was indicated prior to a candidate being selected, so subject to the prime minister's availability, this time was [decided] long before selection,” a spokesman said.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/67037024/John-Key-to-boost-Nationals-Northland-by-election-campaign

[reality]

Ktj...re your post....

Been having a very nice holiday in the best country in the world for a month....but now am back at work 😜

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from The New Zealand Herald....

Northland byelection: John Key turns up Nats' heat

By CLAIRE TREVETT | 5:00AM - Saturday, March 07, 2015


Mark Osborne, National candidate for the Northland byelection. — Photo: Peter de Graaf.

THE National Party is scrambling all jets to bolster Northland byelection candidate Mark Osborne as polling shows NZ First leader Winston Peters has a chance of taking the traditionally safe National seat.

Prime Minister John Key will go on the campaign trail tomorrow and said he would visit another two times before the March 28th vote — more than he would usually dedicate to a byelection.

A TV3 poll this week showed Mr Peters on 35 percent support to Mr Osborne's 30 percent. Labour's Willow-Jean Prime was on 16 percent.

Mr Key has rated Mr Peters' chances at “absolutely zero” but yesterday conceded National had a bit of work ahead.

He also set about pushing the message to National voters that a win for Mr Peters would make it harder for National to push through reforms it believed could benefit Northland.


The PM will go on the campaign trail tomorrow.
 — Photo: Greg Bowker.

National is bringing out its big campaigning guns — MP Steven Joyce is leading the campaign and veteran National campaign organiser Jo de Joux is also involved.

One of the first steps after Mr Osborne was selected last Sunday was to give him media training, understood to have been with long-standing National Party media trainer Janet Wilson.

Yesterday, Mr Osborne had a photo op with Steven Joyce and MP Chris Bishop, erecting a billboard in a paddock as some pigs watched on.

Mr Joyce said Northlanders would start to do the maths and realise Mr Peters was already in Parliament.

“Does it make sense to put Winston in there when he's already in Parliament? If they vote for him they'll have one less Northland MP.”

But Mr Joyce said he was not worried.

“Every byelection is tough. To win it, Mark will have to earn the seat, but I'm confident he can.”

He did not believe the resignation of previous MP Mike Sabin would derail Mr Osborne's campaign.



Following the TV3 poll, Labour leader Andrew Little will not rule out changing party strategy to give a nod to Labour voters to support Mr Peters rather than Mrs Prime.

No change was proposed at the moment, but Labour was constantly reviewing its approach.

“That poll result last night would have been a massive wake-up call for National. If a candidate other than National wins then the Government is down a vote and can't ram through things like the Resource Management Act reforms.”

“But we've entered the race in good faith with our candidate and she is continuing to campaign.”

He conceded Labour had been critical of electorate deals.

“Voters tend to be pretty cynical about electorate deals so that's clearly a factor.”

Mr Peters had not discussed the issue with Labour and if the TV3 poll was accurate he would not need help.

“He's clearly campaigning hard and that poll will obviously be a boost to his campaign.”

• Claire Trevett is The New Zealand Herald’s deputy political editor.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11413187

[reality]

This election can probably be used as an IQ test for northlanders...are they smarter than your below average rail worker?😜

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

This election can probably be used as an IQ test for northlanders...

Too bloody right....if they vote in the Nats candidate, it will show that the Northland electorate is full of STUPID people.

If, however, they vote in Winston and fuck-up John Key's “full-of-shit” Nats government, then Northlanders will show they are HIGHLY-INTELLIGENT people.

2½-years of John “slippery” Key having to suck-up to the MP for Ohario and a couple of Maori MPs would be the best entertainment ever in NZ politics.... 

It would be almost as entertaining as that idiot reality's whinging & whining for the next 2½-years....

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

See, Northlanders? Rodney Hide as got it!

Vote for Winston and the rest of us will be treated to 2½-years of ENTERTAINING “fun & games” watching John Key suck-up to people he'd rather not suck-up to to get anything done.

GO Winston!! 




from the HERALD on SUNDAY....

Fun and games if Winston wins

By RODNEY HIDE | 5:00AM - Sunday, March 08, 2015


Politician Winston Peters win would destabilise the Government and power up a Wellington electorate MP.
 — Photo: Nick Reed.

THE MISCHIEF in me wants Winston Peters to win Northland. The upset would be huge. National would lose a seat to New Zealand First.

Peter Dunne would be emboldened by National needing him and ACT to pass legislation. Dunne says he would revisit his Supply and Confidence agreement with National — a deal made when his position was less propitious.

It would be a big hit on the Government. Peters would take one of National's safest seats. National's election night outright-win would be reduced to two votes short. The smallest tail would wag the biggest dog.

A Peters win would destabilise the Government and power up a Wellington electorate MP. Ohariu would benefit — not Northland. On winning Northland, Peters would resign as a list MP to clear the way for the next candidate on New Zealand First's list. That candidate is Ria Bond ... from Invercargill.

That's right. In choosing Peters, Northland voters would be electing an MP from Invercargill.

Those in the Far North would elect a candidate from the deep south.

But it gets better.



Peters lives in Auckland. Parliament is in Wellington. That's how he divides his time. Kerikeri is 250km north of Auckland. So Peters is asking the people of Northland to vote for an Aucklander to elect an MP from Invercargill and empower an MP from Wellington.

It's possible Peters could win. Byelections have low turnouts and provide the opportunity to send Government a message.

Peters certainly must campaign. He can't afford to do poorly. To come third behind Labour's candidate would prove too big a rejection.

I could walk across the Epsom electorate on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Northland is a different proposition. It's vast and rugged. I spent a hair-raising day with local legend and then-MP John Carter driving across just a fraction of it.

Carter's stories and jokes came thick and fast as I kept my seatbelt tight and my body braced. Carter knew every corner and every bend and drove accordingly.

We had big distances to travel between meetings. I preferred my leisurely Sunday walks.

Peters is 70 this year. It's a long way from Auckland to Northland. It's even further across the electorate. Peters will be bogged down and busy doing the bare minimum needed to be local MP. I doubt the region will be much troubled by him.

And he would lose in 2017. Northland will return a National candidate in a General Election.

It has been 40 years since Peters stood for Northern Maori. He's late in rediscovering the north but his campaign is exciting.

I believe he prefers a close second. Winning would be altogether too much work.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11413598

[reality]

ktj.....
"Peters lives in Auckland. Parliament is in Wellington. That's how he divides his time. Kerikeri is 250km north of Auckland. So Peters is asking the people of Northland to vote for an Aucklander to elect an MP from Invercargill and empower an MP from Wellington."

...let's see how smart northlanders are.....I would like to think that they are not so stupid....either way...I win😜

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from Fairfax NZ....

Andrew Little prods Northland to vote for Winston Peters

By STACEY KIRK | 2:55PM - Sunday 08 March 2015


TACTICAL HINT: Labour leader Andrew Little has given his strongest hint yet, that a vote for
Winston Peters in the Northland by-election might benefit Labour more than a vote for the
party's own candidate. — HAGEN HOPKINS/Fairfax NZ.

NORTHLAND Labour voters would likely be forgiven for voting tactically, if they were to put their support behind NZ First leader Winston Peters.

In his strongest hint yet, Labour leader Andrew Little has said if voters “want to send a message to Government”, his candidate — Willow-Jean Prime — may not be in the best position to do so.

His comments come off the back of a second poll which has placed Peters in first position in the Northland by-election, and National candidate Mark Osborne and Prime in second and third respectively.

A Q+A-Colmar Brunton poll showed Peters and Osborne were tied on 36 percent support, with Prime trailing on 20 percent.

But the poll of 500 also showed Peters would be the clear favourite to win Northland, if Prime was pulled from the competition. Peters support would jump to 51 percent, leaving Osborne on 37 percent.


CHALLENGER: NZ First Leader Winston Peters is contesting the Northland by-election.
 — FIONA GOODALL/Fairfax NZ.

“Willow-Jean is a very strong candidate. She is somebody who Labour wants in Parliament sooner rather than later,” Little told Q+A.

“But this is a Northland by-election. People have got one vote. They are going to have to decide.”

“If they want to send a message to the government that they are sick and tired of being neglected, then they are going to have to pick who they want to get that message through.”

The latest poll has left Little with much to ponder. His candidate was the first to announce her campaign, but Peters had not declared his intentions at that time.

Little is not budging over calls that it might be tactically prudent for him to Prime from the race, but he won't be drawn on questions over whether he wants Labour voters to vote for her either.

“We have a candidate in the race, and she's a good candidate, and she's somebody who we want in Parliament. I have a duty to back her. But in the end, I want Northlanders to exercise their choice, to see that they could make a difference here. If they want to send a message to the government that we are sick and tired of being neglected, then they know what their choice is,” he said.


LABOUR CANDIDATE: Willow Jean Prime. — LAWRENCE SMITH/Fairfax NZ.

The seat has been a relatively safe National seat, with former National MP Mike Sabin winning comfortably by 9,000 votes at last year's election.

His sudden resignation due to personal matters earlier this year, sparked the by-election and left National with one less MP to vote for its Government programme.

Without Sabin's vote, the Government needs an extra two votes from any of its support partners — ACT, UnitedFuture and the Maori Party — to pass it's legislation.

If Peters was to win Northland, under the rules of MMP, he could resign from the list and clear the way for one more NZ First MP to enter parliament as a list MP.

He has so far refused to indicate whether he would do this, but such a move would result in one less seat for National.



Prime Minister John Key was in Northland yesterday, campaigning alongside Osborne.

He said Peters did not care about Northland, he cared about “being disruptive”.

Key was planning to campaign in Northland at least two more times, and a bevy of senior ministers also lending a hand would suggest National is concerned.

Last week, a 3 News-Reid Research poll placed Peters 35 percent, with Osborne on 30 percent Prime trailing on 16 percent.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67099070/andrew-little-prods-northland-to-vote-for-winston-peters

[reality]

Mmmmmm.....get ready for the $NZ to drop😀.....and the cost of everything to rise...😳

People bringing cash into NZ will be happy😝

[reality]

Haha...guess the headline should really read...

" Little  shits on his own candidate"

Labour has never been known for its principles😜

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

Little would be thinking, “what would the GREAT John Key do if the by-election was in Epsom, based on his past actions there?”

Ah, yes.....according to the idiot reality, John Key is a GREAT prime minister, therefore his way must be the correct way, eh?

[reality]

Jeeeez...isn't Winnie looking very OLD....have not seen a close up of him for a while...very wrinkled...I guess it's all the alcohol and cigarettes taking a toll....do you think he would make it to the next election😳

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

Changed the subject, eh? A a bit like your hero John Key.

First he wasn't worried about the Northland byelection, declaring that Winston hasn't a hope of winning.

Next, he is in full panic mode, rushing off to Northland and showing signs of desperation.

Funny, that?   

[reality]

Changing the subject??

Is this thread about the northland election?...is OLD Winnie contesting??....yeah..thought so😀

Let's hope he wins..and the $NZ drops😜...there will be rush of cash into NZ😛

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

You changed the subject alright.

As soon as I suggested that your great hero John Key showed how to do it in Epsom, you suddenly switched to slagging off at Winnie.

I guess that shows you are as shallow as your mates in the Nats party who were bragging a few days ago that they were going to clean up in the byelection without even trying.


BTW....I notice you kept very quiet while you were supposedly in NZ (we've only got your word you really were here, and not pretending to be here). Perhaps you were terrified of running into somebody from XNC2 and being unmasked as a retard?

[reality]

Poor old Winnie...ya gotta feel a bit sorry for him.....70 years old and he's still in the gutter....was he a rail labourer before he went into politics😩

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from The Dominion Post....

Stakes high as Little gives Winston the nod

By STACEY KIRK | 5:00AM - Monday, 09 March 2015


LABOUR CANDIDATE: Willow-Jean Prime. — LAWRENCE SMITH/Fairfax NZ.

SHE WAS the first horse out of the gate, and Willow-Jean Prime could be forgiven for wondering where she faltered after finding Labour Party heads suddenly pulling in the reins.

But there's a bigger game at play in the Northland by-election, and Labour leader Andrew Little's sudden shift in language serves to highlight the stakes.

Speaking after a TVNZ Q+A-Colmar Brunton yesterday — the second poll to place NZ First leader Winston Peters in a lead position — Little refused to tell Labour voters to support their candidate at the ballot box.

In the latest poll National candidate Mark Osborne stood neck-and-neck with Peters on 36 percent. Prime was on 20 percent.

Remove Prime from the equation and Peters stands to gain 51 percent of the vote, compared with 37 percent for Osborne.

It's too late for Little to remove his candidate. Especially when he spent so long at the start staunchly stating he would not play those electorate games.

But that was before the polls set the lay of the land.

Prime is a strong candidate in a tough seat, and if she plays by the rules it could steer her well for 2017. But she won't be making it into Parliament this year.

Her job, as voiced by Little over the weekend, is to now campaign on Labour's issues, a la National's Paul Goldsmith in Epsom.

But while Prime Minister John Key was far more clear in telling National's voters who to tick, it clearly grates Little to be so openly strategic.

“If Northland voters want to send a message to Government, they know what to do,” says Little.

He won't say that outright, but he means “vote Winston”.



However, Labour sources have said there is a prevailing view among senior party MPs, including Annette King, Clayton Cosgrove and David Shearer, that the message with one eyebrow cocked may not be enough.

That unless Labour creates some space for Peters, there will be another National MP.

It's also understood that Labour Party hierarchy are watching Prime's moves here, and any suggestion she's not a team player could hurt her chances in 2017.

Behind the scenes, there are also mutterings that all roads are leading to a similar situation experienced by Kelvin Davis in the 2011 Te Tai Tokerau by-election.

MP Kelvin Davis was soundly beaten by Mana leader Hone Harawira, and he learnt a valuable lesson in playing the long game.

His fight went some way to bolstering Hone's prospects.

Davis might also naturally be of the opinion to cut Peters some slack, given the assistance he received at last year's election.

Many should recall Peters endorsed Davis in Te Tai Tokerau in that battle against Harawira. It sent a dog whistle to the 4,500 on that roll, that voted the NZ First party vote, to give Davis their electorate vote. That turned a very different result.



Peters has the power to turn middle-of-the road conservative voters, of whom there are many on the roll in Northland, out to vote.

There's a group who will be voting Prime purely out of loyalty.

And there are National voters who are disgruntled over the fact they have to go back to the polls.

There's enough room in Northland for a swing to make life slightly more difficult for the Government.

It seems a no-brainer for the opposition to chisel at that chink in the armour.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/67116330/Stakes-high-as-Little-gives-Winston-the-nod

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

Poor old Winnie...ya gotta feel a bit sorry for him.....70 years old and he's still in the gutter....was he a rail labourer before he went into politics😩

Hahaha....panicking, eh?

Pick on a 70-year-old man time, eh? 

Does that make you feel “big & tough”? 

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

And speaking about panicking....you should pop on over to Whaleoil.

They are going RABID over there, slagging off at poor Winnie.

Those retards at Whaleoil are being poor losers before their beloved party (the Nats) has even lost the by-election!