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Asset sales: we have a mandate, Key insists

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Kiwithrottlejockey
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« Reply #100 on: September 09, 2012, 07:59:44 pm »




Reputations on line over water issue

Audrey Young on politics

Weekend Herald | 5:30AM - Saturday, September 08, 2012



WHETHER you think the water claim to the Waitangi Tribunal by the New Zealand Maori Council is an audacious try-on or a legitimate test of legitimate rights, it is an issue that will make or break the reputations of many.

Most immediately, the Government's reputation as competent is at stake.

John Key's Cabinet has chosen to delay National's flagship policy of partial assets sales in the belief that conducting a consultation will put it on safer ground in any final judgment of the courts on a challenge by Maori.

It was cast as a win by both parties — the Maori Council forced a delay but the Crown changed nothing but the timing.

The longer-term verdict is very much open but there are two potential flashpoints for crisis — the Maori response and the court's response.

King Tuheitia is hosting a national hui at Turangawaewae next Thursday on the partial float of state-owned power companies, to be followed on Friday by a meeting at nearby Hopuhopu of the Iwi Chairs Forum, a grouping of 64 iwi from throughout the country from which the elite Iwi Leaders Group comes.

If Maoridom were to unite behind a single and reasonable response to the Waitangi Tribunal report and the Government unreasonably ignored it, it could develop into a crisis.

But the chances of that happening are slim to zero and the Government is banking on that.

The Government does not have a strategy of divide and rule.

As well as the tensions and agendas that go hand-in-hand with politics, difference exists as a matter of settlement evolution. The different rates and sizes of iwi settlements mean that the interests of Maori have diversified with time.

Some iwi have no settlements, some such as those based around the Whanganui River are well advanced in their settlement processes. And others have moved well beyond settlement. Ngai Tahu's settlement not only already covers freshwater issues but its interests over water range from guardianship to commercial with its large dairy holdings.

They don't need the Maori Council, which is reinventing itself as the voice of the forgotten hapu and iwi, a counter to the powerful Iwi Leaders Group.

The hui will be unified in the belief that they have proprietary rights in water but the problems come in determining not only how that should be recognised but on the processes to determine how it should be recognised.

The fact that the hui has been called by the Kingitanga says much about the ambition of King Tuheitia and his advisers to assert its traditional leadership role.

The hui will mark another chapter in the remarkable career of Tukoroirangi Morgan. Having been dumped from the Waikato Tainui executive, he is now not only the King's spokesman but is his nominee on the Iwi Leaders Group — alongside Waikato-Tainui's Tom Roa — and will chair the hui.

Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples has been somewhat sidelined in the process, having gone from a brokering role between the Maori Council and the Iwi Leaders Group to more of bystander.

The party is variously the subject of condemnation and praise of the Maori Council, depending on which council chairman or which spokesman is speaking.

The machinations of the Maori Council have the makings of an opera, though it is not clear whether it is a tragedy, farce or a heroic tale of happy ever after. That a former High Court Judge, Sir Edward Taihakurei Durie, has taken on a highly political role as head of the council runs counter to the principle of an independent judiciary but appears not to have raised an eyelid. Sir Eddie is expected to play a prominent role, in the hui, probably talking up the merits of a legal challenge in the courts.

Contrary to many reports it will not be the first national hui in 30 years. Tuwharetoa have often done so to rally iwi on important issues.

Quite apart from foreshore and seabed hui, the late Tuwharetoa chief Sir Hepi te Heuheu called a national hui in 1995 to discuss the fiscal envelope proposed by Sir Douglas Graham and Jim Bolger.

The 1000 tribal representatives there passed a resolution opposing the policy aimed at settling all historical treaty grievances with $1 billion over 10 years.

The current Tuwharetoa paramount chief, Sir Tumu te Heuheu, might have been expected to call the national hui on water seeing he is the leader of the Freshwater Iwi Leaders with whom the Government has been discussing water issues since 2007 and which is an integral part of the Land and Water Forum which is formulating allocation policy.

But the chief is facing his own pressures.

From time to time there are rumours that Tuwharetoa could take High Court action to claim a water rental from Mighty River Power based on its undisputed ownership to the bed of Lake Taupo.

Te Heuheu's preference is to negotiate, both for his iwi and in the water group.

His statement two weeks ago to that effect was held up as an example by Key of a more sensible approach. But it has also had led to rumblings as to whether te Heuheu was acting as a representative of the iwi leaders or of Tuwharetoa.

He issued a statement on Thursday night to clarify that "the Iwi Leaders Group has never sought to usurp the right of individual groups to progress their issues in whatever forum they choose".

He will play a prominent role in the hui and is likely to promote the course of continued negotiation in order to be part of a new framework to be developed around water management.

The second potential flashpoint on this issue is if it gets to court and to the Supreme Court in particular.

Chief Justice Sian Elias would then have to make a decision to step aside from any decision because of conflicts of interest or not. Her specialty before she joined the bench was in Treaty litigation.

A decision by the court to stop the Government's flagship SOE programme would be the ultimate flashpoint.

It would probably force John Key to put his Government on the line and force an early election — the ultimate test in reputation.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10832514
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« Reply #101 on: September 09, 2012, 08:05:18 pm »




Poor hand forces Key the gambler to fold up

Matt McCarten on politics

HERALD on SUNDAY | 5:30AM - Sunday, September 09, 2012



JOHN KEY made his millions by being a good gambler. After his Cabinet meeting on Monday he threw in his hand.

Most of us go along with the notion that as a successful money man he must know what he's doing when it comes to making deals and managing crises.

We did wonder a bit when he offered SkyCity casino more pokie machines if they built him a convention centre; and we still haven't got the hundreds of jobs he promised from his national bicycle track idea.

But we gave him the benefit of doubt because at least he was thinking of job creation.

However, Prime Minister Key's reputation as a sharp operator collapsed on Monday. His admission of defeat by postponing any asset sales until next year is a disaster.

Key's handling of the asset sales programme has been incompetent for months. This was a long way from where he was at last year's election, when he had shrewdly pitched to sell only a minority share in our public utilities to "mum and dad" investors.

As Labour had run on an anti-privatisation platform, Key could legitimately claim, after his poll victory, that he had a mandate to sell.

The partial privatisation programme was the defining issue between the Government and the Opposition. Earlier this year Key had started to win over public opinion and his political opponents were beginning to resign themselves to the inevitable. The biggest pitch was that it made economic sense and was financially prudent. Most of us glaze over when men in suits talk economics so we were susceptible to this spin.

However, it started to unravel when respected economists in recent weeks started saying the numbers didn't stack up.

Then the Maori Council blindsided him.

The council fortuitously got a hearing with the Waitangi Tribunal. It started innocently enough. The tribunal was asked to give an opinion on whether it was appropriate to sell public power companies, which use vast amounts of water, before claims over water rights were held.

Instead of staying out of it, Key couldn't help himself, saying no one owned water. When it became public that the Government had made past Treaty settlements that included water rights, he changed his position, claiming everyone owned water. That implied property rights over water. The Waitangi Tribunal logically supported the Maori Council position.

With the increasing chorus around the economics of the sale and the absolute certainty that Maori would seek an injunction if the Government tried to proceed, the Cabinet caved.

Whatever the Government spin, most New Zealanders will see this as Key bowing in to Maori extortion. He will now be perceived as weak and questions will be asked about his judgment. His new position, that he'll consult with iwi leaders, will embolden Maori negotiators and enrage his own conservative voting base.

This year's Budget had the premise of the Government getting billions from the sales to spend on education, infrastructure and job creation. The delay will have far-reaching consequences for the economy. The Government's present budget forecasting is in tatters. Does this mean National will have to borrow billions more dollars to pay the bills or will it have to make savage cuts to meet the shortfall?

The opposition senses an opening and its tails are up.

And it gets worse. The asset sales delay will guarantee time for the referendum petition campaign now under way to reach the number of signatures it needs. Once completed, the Government will be forced to hold a voter referendum on whether New Zealanders support sales of assets.

Presumably the referendum will reject the Government sale programme. If this happens National is in a no-win position.

If Key tries to proceed he will be acting against the will of the people, thus giving his opponents an electoral gift just months before the general election.

If he backs off from his sales programme he will be seen to be capitulating over his central policy of the last election.

He's doomed either way.

This may well be the week National lost the next election.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10832609
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« Reply #102 on: September 10, 2012, 02:15:24 pm »


Iwi have Nats over asset-sale barrel

By TRACY WATKINS - The Dominion Post | 9:36AM - Sunday, 09 September 2012



IN THE immortal words, "we won, you lost, eat that".

The Maori Council couched its response to news the Government had delayed its first share float till next year far more politely. However, those words could yet turn out to be the epitaph for National's asset sales programme.

Only weeks ago, Prime Minister John Key was stirring up the base by talking tough about no one owning the water.

He labelled the Maori Council bid to halt asset sales opportunistic. He talked over the top of the claimants to remind everyone the Government was not obliged to do the Waitangi Tribunal's bidding. He made it clear Cabinet would not delay the first state-owned power company share float by choice.

It played well in the polls, but come high noon it was Mr Key, not the Maori Council, who blinked first.

Senior ministers should now be questioning the advice they were receiving before the Waitangi Tribunal hearing that the council claim was not a serious threat to the asset- sales programme. Given all the previous posturing, Monday's delay proved that advice badly wrong.

The increasing reliance on the powerful Iwi Leaders Group as the de facto Treaty partner should also be questioned. Ministers banked their assurances that negotiation, rather than the tribunal, or legal action, was the favoured path forward for Maori. That bolstered their view that the Maori Council had no-one of consequence behind them. Consequently they underestimated the looming threat.

There was apparently robust debate around the Cabinet table before the final decision to push out the first state-owned power company share float till next year. The camp that saw delay as defeat wanted the Government to press on with its original timetable. Others were prepared to take the political hit from delay with the longer game in mind.

After the meeting, one senior member of Cabinet reported feeling bruised and bloodied. No wonder. Asset sales are National's flagship economic policy. Their success or failure will define National's second term, and success is largely dependent on following National's second term strategy of pushing through unpopular policies early in time to show them paying dividends before the election.

Even assuming the first share float hits the new deadline of June next year, that strategy looks to have flown out the window.

Failure means a $5 billon to $7b hole in the books, borrowing more to fund capital spending, a gaping gap in National's economic platform and giving away the high ground on economic management.

Delay might have been the prudent course legally, it may even have been the right thing to do economically. Trying to flog off shares amid uncertainty over the future status of iwi shareholders would potentially have hammered the share price. However, there are no guarantees that the same uncertainty won't still prevail this time next year. That raises the stakes politically.

If the tribunal's report is tested in court — and it is bound to be — progress could be measured in years, rather than weeks. The likelihood of that happening looks even stronger after the Government rejected a pan-Maori approach — though the Government's legal advice clearly takes the opposite view.

Announcing the concession to the Maori Council on Monday, Mr Key could not have been any clearer; his body language screamed that consultation with iwi would be the bare minimum to satisfy the legal test.

Nor did he mince any words that shares-plus, the Waitangi Tribunal's recommended redress for Maori with a proprietary right in water, was off the table as far as the Government was concerned, even though that is ostensibly what the Government will be consulting iwi about.

In a purely legalistic sense, that might be what they call good faith bargaining, even if within Maoridom it may look as if good faith is lacking.

But the reluctant-bride act is largely for the punters. The odds that the Government won't use the next five weeks for some serious bargaining seem low. With so much riding on the next share float deadline being met, iwi claimants who potentially stand in the way have the Government over a barrel. It is notable that one of the more powerful members of the Iwi Leaders Group, Ngati Kahungunu, registered its own claim with the Waitangi Tribunal the same day the Government announced the delay.

They weren't part of the original claim to the tribunal (one of their hapu was). But they saw which way the wind was blowing.

And as their statement of claim showed, far more is at stake than the sale of power company shares. The Ngati Kahungunu claim deals with the country's second-largest aquifer, lakes, rivers and even swamps. It is potentially a sign of things to come. Irrigation, bottled water supplies — anything where water is commodified — is potentially caught in its sweep.

The Government will consult dozens of iwi and hapu in a series of hui over the next few weeks. However, the conga line of claimants is likely to grow.

There is a rising fear the Government's approach will be to ride roughshod over any genuine "good faith" consultation with iwi and instead adopt the age-old strategy of divide and rule.

Small hapu and iwi, many of which are still years away from having Treaty settlements concluded, worry about the Government going into direct negotiation with others who have overlapping claims.

They fear their interests will be shunted aside so the Government can settle quickly with iwi who stand in the path of the sale of Mighty River Power shares and the other SOEs. They will demand to be heard too.

Legal expert Matthew Palmer suggests the closest analogy to what the Government is facing lies in the 1987 Lands Case, in which the Court of Appeal said the government could not transfer assets from Crown ownership into state-owned enterprise ownership without putting in place a mechanism to safeguard future Maori claims to those assets.

In that case, the government was able to sit down with the Maori Council and thrash out a regime which satisfied both parties within months, not years. The situation may be more complex now — there would be an expectation the Government negotiate a deal with iwi, rather than just the Maori Council — but it shows what can be done.

The national hui called for next week by King Tuheitia is an attempt to thrash out a united Maori front. There is no guarantee it will succeed in that aim. But it could be a fork in the road for the asset-sales programme.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/columnists/tracy-watkins/7637742/Iwi-have-Nats-over-asset-sale-barrel
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« Reply #103 on: September 11, 2012, 09:36:20 pm »



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« Reply #104 on: January 05, 2013, 01:40:21 pm »


Asset sales petition gets its numbers

A petition to force a referendum reached the 300,000 signatures needed.

By OLIVIA WANNAN - The Dominion Post | 5:00AM - Friday, 04 January 2012

NATS' ASSET SALES

NEW ZEALANDERS will have their say on asset sales this year after a petition to force a referendum reached the 300,000 signatures needed, campaigners say.

Since April, a coalition including Grey Power, the Council of Trade Unions, the Green Party and Labour have been collecting signatures for the petition.

They need 10 per cent of all registered voters, or approximately 310,000 people, to sign to force a referendum.

Grey Power national president Roy Reid said the group had collected more than 340,000 signatures, allowing for a percentage of signatures that did not meet the requirements under the Citizen Initiated Referendum Act.

After checking the figures at the end of 2012, Mr Reid was confident they now had the numbers to push through the referendum.

The petition asked if people wanted a referendum on the question, "Do you support the Government selling up to 49 per cent of Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power, Genesis Power, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand?"

Mr Reid said the anti-asset-sales coalition would continue to collect signatures over the new few weeks, before the petition was presented to Parliament when it opened again in the last week of January.

"I hope it will demonstrate to the Government that they can't sell the government's assets — they belong to the people of New Zealand," he said.

"Selling them isn't the Government's right."

Labour Party MP Chris Hipkins was delighted the petition had met the signature threshold.

"Overwhelmingly New Zealanders are opposed to these asset sales, and the referendum will be an opportunity to demonstrate that."

"I think the Government are now panicking about it. That's why they're trying to rush these asset sales through: they're now talking about selling three companies in one year."

Mr Hipkins hoped the referendum would be held as soon as possible.

"New Zealanders should be given a chance to have a say before the Government go ahead."


http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/8141732/Asset-sales-petition-gets-its-numbers
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Newtown-Fella
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« Reply #105 on: January 05, 2013, 03:04:27 pm »

the Labour Party have well and truly shown how fucked up they really are .....

they get behind a Petition to stop Asset Sales when they were the fucken govt who back in the 90s who SOLD NEW ZEALAND TO WHOEVER HAD THE MONEY ....

think Telecom / our rail system / Air NZ / BNZ etc etc etc

then in 2007 they sold 49 per cent of state owned Spring Creek Mine for millions of dollars to American multi-national Cargill Coal
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/06/labours_2007_asset_sale.html

i would love to see National lose at the next Election just to give the country the wake up call it needs ....

we dont need billions of dollars tied up in Assets ......

we need money to pay off debt ....

what is so hard to comprehend about settling debt ?

but hey let Labour back for 3 more years and the National wil have a right royal mess to sort out ...

look what Labour has on its horizon .....

is this how people want to be controlled ?


Do not read these if you are of a nervous disposition. Bear in mind that they are not yet official Labour Party policy. They are merely up for consideration. But nevertheless read on with horror what utopia New Zealand is planned b Labour Party grassroots activists and read their policy remits to be debated at their annual conference. Here’s a summary:

    Nationalisation of any partially sold assets
    A financial transactions tax
    Require all private boards to comply with a 50% gender quota within five years
    A universal child benefit so millionaires get paid money for having kids
    52 weeks paid parental leave (why stop there – go for 18 years I say!)
    Lower the voting age to 16
    A gender quota for the House of Representatives (why not a race and sexual orientation quota also!)
    Compulsory Te Reo Maori until age 15
    End all funding of private schools (which ironically will force them all to be integrated and go from 25% funding to 100%)
    Bring ban the food police to school tuckshops
    Ban seabed mining for minerals oil and gas
    Ban fracking
    A tax on aquaculture
    Ban all coal mining
    A mineral exports tax
    Ban plastic bags
    Fund a brand new commercial free TV broadcaster
    Fund a Pacific TV broadcaster
    A Super Gold card for transport for under 21s
    A rail link to the airport for Auckland (think how much taxes will be gong up to pay for all of this)
    A petrol tax to fund rail
    Set up a state owned insurance company to compete with private insurers
    De facto compulsory unionism by forcing all employees to “contribute to the benefits of enterprise and multi-enterprise bargaining”
    Turn contractors into employees
    Reverse employment law changes and destroy NZ as a location for international film making
    Ban companies that do not pay a “living wage” (which is much higher than the minimum wage) from winning government contracts
    Compulsory worker representation on large company boards
    Direct Kiwirail as to whom must win their tenders
    restore the social obligation to the SOE Act (despite the fact they were never repealed!)
    Insert the Treaty of Waitangi into the Constitution Act
    Raise the age of Super to 67 – except for Maori!
    That the Government should create state owned and managed retirement homes
    That all single benefits be increased by $50 a week!!!
    That any NGO receiving even minimal government funding be required to have a 50% gender quota on its governing board!
    Bring back compulsory membership of student associations

Once you have returned from the bathroom, comment below on which ones are the most hideous. I think the fixation with gender quotas might be it for me – they want them not just for Parliament, not just for company boards but also for any NGO which gets even $1,000 of Government funding.

It will be fascinating to see which ones pass.

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/11/be_afraid_be_very_afraid.html

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wgtngirl
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« Reply #106 on: January 05, 2013, 03:12:35 pm »

the problem i have with referendums is that they are not binding.  So why bother wasting millions of dollars in setting up a referendum when we all know that regardless of what the majority vote for, the referendum will still be a waste of time.
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Newtown-Fella
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« Reply #107 on: January 05, 2013, 03:41:19 pm »

are Grey Power, the Council of Trade Unions, the Green Party and Labour going to pay for the referendum ?
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wgtngirl
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« Reply #108 on: January 05, 2013, 03:46:50 pm »

Course not.  It will probably come out of the slush fund unless they attach it to next years election (which they won't)
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« Reply #109 on: January 05, 2013, 03:49:10 pm »


Well....the referendum will show whether or not the Nats REALLY have the support of NZ's population for flogging off OUR assets.

I betcha the Nats desperately try to flog them off before the referendum because they'll be scared of the TRUE public opinion being shown up before they steal OUR assets off us, then offer to sell the STOLEN PROPERTY back to us.

However, if the Nats have nothing to hide, then they'll wait until AFTER the referendum has been held.

Moreover, if the Nats IGNORE the results of the referendum, it will be able to be used as a WEAPON against them in next year's general election.

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« Reply #110 on: January 05, 2013, 04:38:40 pm »


Well....the referendum will show whether or not the Nats REALLY have the support of NZ's population for flogging off OUR assets.

I betcha the Nats desperately try to flog them off before the referendum because they'll be scared of the TRUE public opinion being shown up before they steal OUR assets off us, then offer to sell the STOLEN PROPERTY back to us.

However, if the Nats have nothing to hide, then they'll wait until AFTER the referendum has been held.

Moreover, if the Nats IGNORE the results of the referendum, it will be able to be used as a WEAPON against them in next year's general election.



and just when are we off to the Polls to vote on this referendum ?

you seem to forget that they arent binding anyway ..... [ Labour showed that fact after the 1999 one and the Smacking Referendum returned a resounding No yet S59 was enacted .... gee thanks wankers oops Labour for being two faced ]  ]

and wil we be able to buy back the 49% of the Coal Mine Labour sold in 2007 .... ?

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« Reply #111 on: January 05, 2013, 05:26:29 pm »

Who cares what Labour's policies are, they have Jacinda Ardern. Them getting into power means she gets to be on TV more. Sweet.
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Newtown-Fella
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« Reply #112 on: January 05, 2013, 09:52:13 pm »

Who cares what Labour's policies are, they have Jacinda Ardern. Them getting into power means she gets to be on TV more. Sweet.



mmmm isnt she a Lesbian ?
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« Reply #113 on: January 06, 2013, 05:58:06 am »

Who cares what Labour's policies are, they have Jacinda Ardern. Them getting into power means she gets to be on TV more. Sweet.



mmmm isnt she a Lesbian ?

It doesn't matter, she is the hottest looking politician we have. If Labour gets in, they should make her the Foriegn Affairs Minister. All she would have to do is do the occasional hiking up her skirt a bit and we would get any deal we wanted.
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« Reply #114 on: February 25, 2013, 12:38:09 pm »


SNIGGER....







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« Reply #115 on: February 28, 2013, 10:41:20 pm »

I cant wait to get my hands on some of them assets  Grin
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« Reply #116 on: March 01, 2013, 08:05:32 am »

I cant wait to get my hands on some of them assets  Grin

Well, I hope you lodged your expression of interest. I have.
If you haven't, I'll sell ya some of mine, if ever they are released for sale.   modified to add:

OOOOPS --- presuming, of course, that you ARE a Kiwi   


** Trouble is, we could perhaps be obliged to top 'em up a bit once we own 'em - if and when they look set to fail.  **

http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/don-brash-david-cunliffe-interview-transcript-4361392/video


I am inclined to hope that prospective purchasers of Solid Energy use the 'read more' button on the home page

 


 
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« Reply #117 on: March 04, 2013, 10:14:06 pm »

I was born in NZ. Thats as 'kiwi' as I need to be  Grin
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« Reply #118 on: March 05, 2013, 09:20:55 am »

I was born in NZ. Thats as 'kiwi' as I need to be  Grin


lotsa people have been born in NZ but later acquired citizenship elsewhere.  Seems to me some of them could perhaps be described as convenient citizens or as traitorous rats leaving a sinking ship before they're made to walk the plank.  (you know how I luurrve mixing metaphors  Cheesy)

I am against the sale of our remaining assets; However I will be buying as many as I am entitled to, to keep them in NZ.

I have been watching the rise in sales of privately installed alternative generation systems and I anticipate that inevitable? escalation of the price of traditional sources will soon (imo) make the privately-installed alternatives truly cost-neutral.








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« Reply #119 on: March 05, 2013, 10:38:44 am »

skonky jonkey strikes again ignoring majority opposition.... wonder how much he is getting as a backhander.
free trips, finacial chicanery for his cohorts and stuff the kiwi....
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« Reply #120 on: March 05, 2013, 11:46:27 am »

I cant wait to get my hands on some of them assets  Grin


So as the Nats government are planning to STEAL assets I already collectively own with all other NZers, then offer to sell a proportion of 49% of what they have stolen back to me, I guess this means the Nats want me to become a fence purchasing stolen property.

I guess this means that YOU are a criminal who has no morals when it comes to receiving stuff pinched from other people.




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« Reply #121 on: March 05, 2013, 01:46:08 pm »




lol, @ this one too

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8380602/Heavy-traffic-hits-Mighty-River-Power-share-site

So I followed the embedded links and clicked on a random country in the dropdown box as if I were residing somewhere else, and found I would have to contact the 0800 if I believed I am eligible to participate in the sell-out

With the thousands of those NZ born who now reside elsewhere, seems to me that 0800 will need a multitude of lines and operators.

Ummm   .?

yeahbut

With the thousands of those NZ born who now reside elsewhere, and may be unaware of the looming SOEs sale, seems to me it's unfair that former Nz-born expats may miss the opportunity to register.  Shouldn't all of them be personally contacted and informed of the impending sale?
They should/could take a class action against the govt if they have been discriminated against???



**sorry, TJ, just borrowing 'em to indicate that I am laffin at my own joke**


 

   

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« Reply #122 on: March 05, 2013, 04:44:55 pm »


Wayne Cartwright: Asset sale is ‘strategic blunder’

Wayne Cartwright says Government plans to sell hydro assets
are blind to the rising cost of other energy sources.


The New Zealand Herald | 5:30AM - Tuesday, March 05, 2013

As it gets harder to extract fossil fuels, the cost advantage of hydro power will become critically important.
As it gets harder to extract fossil fuels, the cost advantage of hydro
power will become critically important.


THE GOVERNMENT's plan to sell publicly owned hydro-energy resources is a huge strategic blunder. This is not due to the objections raised so far, such as worries about the public-private ownership model or transgression of Maori water rights. The reason is arguably much more important than both of these concerns.

The Government has grossly underestimated the value of hydro-energy assets to New Zealand citizens. The assets are likely to be worth at least double the amount the Government is prepared to accept. This is because the valuations have apparently ignored the implications of clear signals that global energy costs and prices will increase greatly and permanently within the next seven to ten years.

The average cost of extracting oil and gas globally will more than double and prices will follow. Be clear that this is not about oil and gas running out, as was feared until recently. To the contrary, oil and gas reserves are huge and more are being discovered. However, they are accessible only at much higher costs because they require extraction from deep ocean wells, tar sands, and tight deposits that require fracking.

In rough figures the current average global cost of extracting a barrel of oil is about US$35 ($42.50). However, the range is from about US$20 to more than US$100. This is the telling point — the cost of all the new sources is more than US$100, and the low-cost fields are rapidly depleting. The situation with gas is comparable. It is obvious a rapidly increasing proportion of global oil and gas production must come from the more costly sources. This process will result in the average cost of producing oil rising to more than US$100 per barrel in the next decade.

Supply of energy from wind, solar, tidal, and even nuclear will expand but this will not reduce energy prices much because these sources all have cost structures roughly comparable to the future higher costs of oil and gas.

Hence, there is no escape from a global economy in which energy is much more expensive and less affordable. It follows that the economy, and human living with it, will necessarily adjust to using much less energy. Because the global economy is not resilient to increases in energy prices, it will become recessionary and adjustments will be tough.

New Zealand will be part of this global shift, but we are less dependent on oil and gas than most other developed countries due to our hydro and geothermal resources providing a high proportion of our total energy. These resources provide New Zealand with an extremely valuable buffer during the forthcoming times of adjustment and change.

New Zealand's distinctive energy endowment provides us with the huge future benefit of already providing the high proportion of moderate-cost and renewable energy sources that most other countries, far more dependent on fossil fuels, will struggle to achieve. This means our capacity for hydro and geothermal electricity generation has remarkably high future value. These endowments are truly sovereign strategic assets. They have a very high holding value arising from future strategic opportunities and applications that will emerge for New Zealand if ownership of them is retained.

It seems this high holding value has not been understood either by the generating companies or by the Government and its advisers. This appears to be because the mainstream traditional commercial valuation techniques consider only current and projected electricity prices. The value of strategic holding opportunities is ignored ... and underestimates the value of the asset.

Realisation of the high value of holding strategic hydro resources will depend on implementing national energy strategies that substitute low-cost hydro electricity for future high-cost oil. A way of doing this is already available.

Government's hydro asset sales strategy is inept because it is blind to the future global energy situation. The strategy is extraordinarily naive and demonstrates both an alarming absence of strategic common sense and a lack of understanding of future economic realities. It squanders a resource that has huge future value to the nation. Implementation of it should be stopped pending proper development of a strategic holding plan.


Dr Wayne Cartwright is a strategy consultant and retired Professor at the University of Auckland Business School.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10869145
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« Reply #123 on: March 11, 2013, 08:13:35 pm »



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« Reply #124 on: March 13, 2013, 11:47:02 am »



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