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from The Washington Post....

North Korea tests another missile, spurring angry retort from Trump

The missile reportedly flew toward waters off the Korean Peninsula.

By EMILY RAUHALA | 10:49PM EDT - Monday, July 03, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170703nkm_NorthKoreaMissile_zpsdrfup74i.jpg~original) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/04/Foreign/Images/06064464.jpg)

BEIJING — North Korea has test-fired another ballistic missile, defying international pressure and earning a swift and angry rebuke from President Trump.

The launch was made on Tuesday morning from a site in North Korea's North Phyongan province, according to U.S. Pacific Command. The missile was tracked for 37 minutes and landed in the Sea of Japan, it said.

The test comes after a string of recent tests, including a salvo of missiles last month and three tests in May alone. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has now launched more missiles in one year than his father launched during 17 years in power.

The rate and variety of tests has alarmed experts, who see the launches as part of an effort to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States.

Trump has made tackling the issue a priority, focusing his efforts on getting China to pressure the Kim regime and cut off its nuclear weapons program.

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170703sknkml_SouthKorea_NorthKorea_MissileLaunch_zpssgxt6hds.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-07-04/AP/Images/South_Korea_Koreas_Tensions_88423.jpg-03007.jpg)
Army soldiers walk by a TV news program showing a file image of a missile being test-launched by North Korea at the Seoul
Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea on Tuesday, July 4th, 2017. North Korea on Tuesday launched yet another ballistic
missile in the direction of Japan, South Korean officials said, part of a string of recent test-firings as the North works to
build a nuclear-tipped missile that could reach the United States. The signs read “The presidential Blue House was
briefed immediately after the North Korean missile was fired”. — Photograph: Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press.

As news of Tuesday's test emerged, Trump weighed in on Twitter (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882061157900718081), calling out Kim and appearing to call on China to do more to pressure him.

“North Korea has just launched another missile,” Trump wrote. “Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?”

“Hard to believe that South Korea and Japan will put up with this much longer,” he continued. “Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all.”

In recent weeks, there have been signs that the U.S. president is frustrated with China's progress. On June 21st, he tweeted that, while he appreciated Beijing’s efforts, “it has not worked out.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared to share his frustration. In remarks to the the press on Tuesday, Abe vowed to work closely with the United States and South Korea, but called on China and Russia to do more.

“North Korea forcibly launched a ballistic missile again. This ignores repeated warnings by the international community. This launch clearly shows its threat has increased,” he said, according to NHK, a Japanese broadcaster.

“I'd like to strongly urge international society's co-operation on the North Korea issue and urge China's Chairman Xi Jinping and Russia's President Putin to take more constructive measures.”

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

__________________________________________________________________________

More on this topic:

• US tracks North Korea missile for 37 minutes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/the-latest-missile-likely-landed-in-japanese-economic-zone/2017/07/03/14b2e362-605e-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html)

• VIDEO: Trump calls for more action against North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/trump-calls-for-more-action-against-north-korea/2017/06/30/7bca068e-5dac-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_video.html)

• North Korea and trade on agenda for US-South Korea talks (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/south-korean-leader-vows-to-stand-with-trump-on-nkorea/2017/06/28/e5c1bdc2-5c60-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html)

An updated story....

from The Washington Post....

North Korea claims successful intercontinental ballistic missile test,
defying international condemnation

If the missile's capabilities are confirmed, this would mark a major development.
As early details of the launch emerged, President Trump weighed in on Twitter
to acknowledge the test and call out Kim Jong Un. He also appeared to urge
China to do more to pressure North Korea's leader.

By EMILY RAUHALA | 3:29AM EDT - Tuesday, July 04, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170704nkmt_NorthKoreaMissile_Tokyo_zpsysao5fqw.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/04/Foreign/Images/AFP_Q88CI.jpg)
A pedestrian walks past a screen in Tokyo on July 4th, 2017 broadcasting file news footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un,
after a ballistic missile was launched by North Korea earlier in the day. — Photograph: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

BEIJING — North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile on Tuesday, defying international condemnation and earning a swift and angry rebuke from President Trump.

In a special television announcement, North Korean state media claimed the country had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, which, if confirmed, would be a major development.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in had said earlier that it may indeed be an ICBM. U.S. Pacific Command's first statement on the launch called it a land-based intermediate range missile.

Either way, the test has renewed questions about how close Kim Jong Un's regime is to developing a missile capable of hitting the United States.

It also appears to have put North Korea at the top of Trump's agenda as he heads into Group of 20 meetings in Germany this week, raising the stakes as he prepares to meet foreign leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

As news of the July 4th test emerged, Trump took to Twitter, calling out Kim and appearing to urge China to do more to pressure him. “North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?” Trump wrote (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882061157900718081).

“Hard to believe that South Korea and Japan will put up with this much longer,” he continued (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882062572081512449). “Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared to share Trump's frustration, if not his tone. In remarks to the press to the press on Tuesday, Abe vowed to work closely with the United States and South Korea, but called on China and Russia to do more.

“I'd like to strongly urge international society's co-operation on the North Korea issue and urge China's chairman, Xi Jinping, and Russia's President Putin to take more constructive measures.”

Beijing has yet to issue a formal response.

Experts are still looking for clues about the missile and what they might mean, both in terms of North Korea's capability and the international community's response.

U.S. and South Korean officials say the launch was made from a site in North Korea's Phyongan province. The missile flew more than 500 miles before landing in waters off the Japanese coast.

Melissa Hanham of the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies in California said experts are waiting for more detailed information about the missile's trajectory, as well as pictures of the weapon, to identify and categorize it, but that early signs suggested it may be a significant development.

“This is definitely a serious missile,” she said. “We just don't know if it’s the same serious missile we've seen, or if it went further.”

The test comes after a string of recent tests, including a salvo of missiles last month and three tests in May alone. Kim has now launched more missiles in one year than his father did in 17 years in power.

The rate and variety of tests has alarmed experts, who see the launches as part of an effort to develop a nuclear-tipped weapon capable of reaching the west coast of the United States. The missiles are already capable of hitting much of East Asia.

Tuesday's test will put fresh pressure on the Trump administration to address North Korea. Since taking office, Trump has made North Korea's weapons program a priority, focusing his efforts — and tweets — on getting North Korea to back down.

At the heart of Trump's strategy is getting China, North Korea's neighbor and patron, to pressure the Kim regime. In recent weeks, there have been signs that is frustrated with the progress. On June 21st, Trump tweeted that, although he appreciated Beijing's efforts, “it has not worked out.”

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea missile launch marks a direct challenge to Trump administration

President Trump's tough talk has yet to yield any change in Pyongyang's behaviour as the regime
continues efforts to build a nuclear weapon capable of striking the mainland United States — the
latest missile flew high and long enough to reach all of Alaska, experts say. Experts also say
the administration does not have many choices for what to do next.

By ANNE GEARAN and EMILY RAUHALA | 4:11PM EDT - Tuesday, July 04, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170704nkml_NorthKoreaMissileLaunch_zpsm9cfwvek.jpg~original) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/04/National-Security/Images/AFP_Q881B.jpg)
A South Korean soldier views a television news broadcast about the test launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile
by North Korea early on July 14th. — Photograph: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

NORTH KOREA's test launch on Tuesday of what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile marks a direct challenge to President Trump, whose tough talk has yet to yield any change in Pyongyang's behavior as the regime continues its efforts to build a nuclear weapon capable of striking the mainland United States.

The latest missile flew higher and remained in the air longer than previous attempts — enough to reach all of Alaska, experts said, in a major milestone for North Korea's weapons program.

The test comes just before Trump will see key Asian leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week. North Korea was already expected to be a main subject for meetings on the sidelines of the Group of 20 economic summit, but the test adds urgency to a widening U.S. campaign aimed at further isolating North Korea.

Trump responded to the missile test by applying rhetorical pressure on China, North Korea's ally and economic lifeline, and by mocking (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882061157900718081) North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on Twitter (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882062572081512449).

“North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?” Trump asked in a message very shortly after the launch, which took place late on Monday evening in the United States.

“Hard to believe that South Korea and Japan will put up with this much longer,” Trump continued. “Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!”

The launch follows a string of recent actions by Pyongyang, including a salvo of missiles last month (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-salvo-of-missiles-defying-international-condemnation/2017/06/07/7d8b8ff2-4bdb-11e7-b69d-c158df3149e9_story.html) and three tests in May. Kim has now launched more missiles in one year than his father and predecessor in the family dynasty did in 17 years in power.

North Korea has also conducted five nuclear weapons tests (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/14/a-timeline-of-north-koreas-five-nuclear-tests-and-how-the-u-s-has-responded) since 2006, including two last year.

The number and variety of tests worry experts who see each step as part of a march toward a missile capable of striking America's West Coast.

The missile tests violate existing United Nations and other sanctions, which North Korea has found ways to evade. Although Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have declared that the “era of strategic patience” with North Korea is over, the new U.S. administration has not spelled out what that means.

Tillerson has said Washington might eventually negotiate with North Korea under the right circumstances, but he has suggested that possibility is remote. The United States will act alone if it must, he has warned, though he has not spelled out what exactly that would entail.

The Trump administration has recently leaned on China to rein in North Korea and curb illicit trade with the country, an international pariah largely cut off from the global financial system.

Given that Japan and South Korea are within range of existing North Korean missiles, Trump has also sought to unite leaders of both nations behind a strongly worded U.S. position that it will no longer tolerate the North's provocations. The Trump administration has asked other nations around the globe to sever or downgrade diplomatic ties with Pyongyang.

Leaders of China, South Korea and Japan will be at the G-20 meeting in Germany.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared to share Trump's frustration, if not his tone. In remarks to the news media, he vowed to work closely with the United States and South Korea, but called on China and Russia to do more.

“I'd like to strongly urge international society’s cooperation on the North Korea issue and urge China's chairman, Xi Jinping, and Russia's President Putin to take more constructive measures,” Abe said.

In a daily news conference, Geng Shuang, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, condemned the test but countered that Beijing had “spared no effort” in its fight.

On Tuesday, Russia and China jointly proposed that North Korea put further nuclear and missile tests on hold while the United States and ally South Korea refrain from large-scale military exercises. Both nations oppose North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Both also oppose the U.S. anti-missile system being installed in South Korea.

Experts said the Trump administration does not have many choices for what to do next.

“Unfortunately, the Trump administration has few options other than robust economic pressure on China and North Korea,” said Anthony Ruggiero, a specialist on the long-running diplomatic and military standoff at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The U.S. wasted the last 10 years with a combination of negotiations that were destined to fail and strategic patience that failed from the start.”

A new sanctions regime led by the United States would be the best response, Ruggiero said, because China and Russia would veto the most effective form of sanctions at the U.N. Security Council.

Last week, the Trump administration announced sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-announces-sanctions-on-chinese-bank-arms-sales-package-for-taiwan/2017/06/29/c0b66e3c-5d0b-11e7-a9f6-7c3296387341_story.html) targeting a China-based bank accused of laundering money for the North Korean government and moved forward with an arms sale to Taiwan that Beijing opposes.

Trump followed up with a call on Sunday to China's Xi, in which Trump “raised the growing threat posed by North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” according to the White House.

“Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a de-nuclearized Korean Peninsula,” a White House statement said, while “President Trump reiterated his determination to seek more balanced trade relations with America's trading partners.”

The trade reference was an implicit threat to reassert U.S. complaints about Chinese economic practices that Trump has largely set aside in recent months as he has sought to engage Xi, with whom he claims a strong relationship.

China has pledged co-operation with the United States over North Korea but has not fundamentally shifted away from a strategy that balances pressure on the Kim regime with keeping the regime afloat, said Chris Steinitz, a research scientist at the federally funded, nonprofit Center for Naval Analyses.

“It's kind of how China looks at everything. They have a very long view,” Steinitz said. “They will wait, they will bide their time. They have a lot of priorities.”

In the meantime, Steinitz said, North Korea will continue to test missiles.

The U.S. military said the Hwasong-14 was in the air for 37 minutes, a duration that signals a significant improvement over previous tests. In a special announcement on state television, North Korea said the missile flew about 579 miles, reaching an altitude of 1,741 miles.

The launch was made from a site in North Korea’s North Pyongan province, and the missile flew more than 500 miles before landing in waters off Japan’s coast, U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials said.

As with other recent launches, the missile appears to have been fired at a very steep trajectory in an effort to avoid flying over neighbors.

Multiple independent analyses of the test showed that the missile flew at a high-altitude trajectory, soaring to about 1,700 miles before landing in the Pacific off the Japanese coast, about 580 miles from its launch point.

• Emily Rauhala reported from Beijing. Joby Warrick contributed to this article from Washington; Shirley Feng and Yang Liu contributed from Beijing.

• Anne Gearan is a national politics correspondent for The Washington Post.

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related media about this topic:

• VIDEO: North Korea fires ballistic missile ahead of G-20 summit (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/433acbe0-6073-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_video.html)

• VIDEO: Russia and China join forces over North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/71c71ed2-60d7-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_video.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/north-korea-claims-successful-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-test-defying-international-condemnation/2017/07/04/4f804488-609c-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/north-korea-claims-successful-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-test-defying-international-condemnation/2017/07/04/4f804488-609c-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html)

Haw haw haw.....Trump is huffing & puffing and threatening to make a total dork of himself!

The moment the first American missile enters North Korean airspace, tens of thousands of artillery guns will open up on Seoul and American bases in South Korea.

President DUMB is no doubt too stupid to comprehend that fact (as is that clown Reality/Donald in ENZED). Just as well there are saner people in the Pentagon, eh?

from The Washington Post....

U.S. Army and South Korean military respond to North Korea's
launch with missile exercise

The countries launched weapons into South Korean territorial waters along the country's
eastern coastline, a move directly in response to “North Korea's destabilizing
and unlawful actions”, U.S. Pacific Command said in a statement.

By DAN LAMOTHE | 7:45PM EDT - Tuesday, July 04, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170704tsis_TelevisionScreensInSeoul_zpsohta0zc4.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/04/Foreign/Images/APTOPIX_South_Korea_Koreas_Tensions_77470-c5bef.jpg&w=1484)
TV screens at a Yongsan Electronics shop in Seoul on Tuesday show a North Korean newscaster reading a public announcement
about the North's missile launch. — Photograph: Lim Tae-hoon/Newsis/Associated Press.

THE U.S. Army and South Korean military responded to North Korea's latest launch with their own exercise of missiles, launching them on Wednesday into South Korean territorial waters along the country's eastern coastline, U.S. Pacific Command said in a statement. The launches were directly in response to “North Korea's destabilizing and unlawful actions,” Pacific Command said.

The Army used its Army Tactical Missile System and South Korea used its Hyunmoo Missile II, which can be deployed rapidly and provide “deep strike precision capability,” Pacific Command said.

The South Korean-U.S. military alliance “remains committed to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and throughout the Asia-Pacific,” Pacific Command said. “The U.S. commitment to the defense of the [Republic of Korea] in the face of threats is ironclad.”

On Tuesday, North Korea launched a missile that flew higher and remained in the air longer than previous attempts, enough to reach all of Alaska, experts said, in a milestone for North Korea's weapons program. The response from the U.S. and South Korean military alliance, which came during Tuesday evening Washington time, amounted to a show of force, though it is unclear how the North Korean government would perceive it.

The Army describes the missiles it used as long-range, all-weather guided missiles. They are designed to be precise in nature and can be used beyond the range of artillery and rockets.

The U.S. missile system can be used to take out ground combat units, surface-to-surface missile units, air-defense units, helicopter rearming and refueling systems and communications sites, according to an Army fact sheet.

Some of the missiles in the system are designed to deliver a single, 500-pound warhead on a target through the use of satellite guidance, while others distribute hundreds of smaller bomblets over a larger distance, according to the Army.

Dana White, a Pentagon spokeswoman, confirmed in a statement on Tuesday night that the missile North Korea used was an intercontinental ballistic missile and described it as a “escalatory launch”.

“The launch continues to demonstrate that North Korea poses a threat to the United States and our allies,” White said. “Together with the Republic of Korea, we conducted a combined exercise to show our precision fire capability.”

White said that the United States remains prepared to defend itself and allies and to use “the full range of capabilities at our disposal against the growing threat from North Korea.” The United States seeks only the peaceful denuclearization of the Korea Peninsula, and its commitment to its allies is ironclad, she added.

• Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/04/u-s-army-and-south-korean-military-respond-to-north-koreas-launch-with-missile-exercise (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/04/u-s-army-and-south-korean-military-respond-to-north-koreas-launch-with-missile-exercise)

from The Washington Post....

Experts: North Korea's missile was a ‘real ICBM’ — and a grave milestone

North Korea’s defiant test shows that U.S. cities could soon be within reach.

By JOBY WARRICK | 7:48PM EDT - Tuesday, July 04, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170704nkmt_NorthKoreaMissileTrajectory_zps5ubu3ayt.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/04/National-Security/Graphics/wNKmissileMAPrangeJuly2017.jpg)

THE North Korean missile that soared high above the Sea of Japan on Tuesday was hailed by state-run television as a “shining success”. But to U.S. officials, it was a most unwelcome surprise: a weapon with intercontinental range, delivered years before most Western experts believed such a feat possible.

Hours after the apparently successful test, intelligence agencies continued to run calculations to determine precisely how the missile, dubbed the Hwasong-14, performed in its maiden flight. But the consensus among missile experts was that North Korea had achieved a long-sought milestone, demonstrating a capability of striking targets thousands of miles from its coast.

Initial Pentagon assessments said North Korea had tested a “land-based, intermediate-range” missile that landed in the Sea of Japan just under 600 linear miles from its launch point, Panghyon Airfield, near the Chinese border. The State Department and the Pentagon later confirmed North Korea had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. Government and independent analyses showed the missile traveling in a steep arc that topped out at more than 1,740 vertical miles above the Earth's surface.

If flown in a more typical trajectory, the missile would have easily traveled 4,000 miles, potentially putting all of Alaska within its range, according to former government officials and independent analysts. A missile that exceeds a range of 3,400 miles is classified as an ICBM.

“This is a big deal: It's an ICBM, not a ‘kind of’ ICBM,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “And there's no reason to think that this is going to be the maximum range.”

David Wright, senior scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists, calculated in a published analysis (http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/north-korea-appears-to-launch-missile-with-6700-km-range) that the Hwasong-14's demonstrated capability exceeded 4,100 linear miles, based on estimates released during Tuesday.

“That range would not be enough to reach the Lower 48 states or the large islands of Hawaii, but would allow it to reach all of Alaska,” Wright said.

North Korea's apparent accomplishment puts it well ahead of schedule in its years-long quest to develop a true ICBM. The Hwasong-14 tested early on Tuesday could not have reached the U.S. mainland, analysts say, and there's no evidence to date that North Korea is capable of building a miniaturized nuclear warhead to fit on one of its longer-range missiles. But there is now little reason to doubt that both are within North Korea’s grasp, weapons experts say.

“In the past five years, we have seen significant, and much more rapid than expected, development of their ballistic-missiles capability,” said Victor Cha, a former director of Asian affairs for the George W. Bush administration's National Security Council. “Their capabilities have exceeded our expectations on a consistent basis.”

While U.S. intelligence officials have sought, with some success, to disrupt North Korea's progress, Pyongyang has achieved breakthroughs in multiple areas, such as the development of solid-fuel rocket engines and mobile-launch capabilities, including rockets that can be fired from submarines. Early analysis suggests that the Hwasong-14 uses a new kind of indigenously built ballistic-missile engine, one that North Korea unveiled with fanfare on March 18th. Nearly all the country’s previous ballistic missiles used engines based on modifications of older, Soviet-era technology.

“It's not a copy of a crappy Soviet engine, and it's not a pair of Soviet engines kludged together — it's the real thing,” Lewis said. “When they first unveiled the engine on March 18th, they said that the ‘world would soon see what this means’. I think we're now seeing them take that basic engine design and execute it for an ICBM.”

In announcing the test in a special TV broadcast on Tuesday, North Korean officials proclaimed that the country had achieved an ICBM capability that would safeguard the communist government from attacks by the United States and other adversaries. According to U.S. analysts, leader Kim Jong Un has long calculated that nuclear-armed ICBMs are the best deterrence against threats to his survival, as any perceived aggression against him could trigger a retaliatory strike targeting U.S. cities.

“As the dignified nuclear power who possesses the strongest intercontinental ballistic rocket which is capable of hitting any part of the world along with the nuclear weapons, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will fundamentally terminate the U.S. nuclear war threats and blackmail and credibly protect the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the region,” a government spokeswoman said in a bulletin read on state-run television.

The spokeswoman said that the missile's trajectory was deliberately set “at the highest angle” to avoid harming nearby countries.

That claim rang true to U.S. analysts, who agreed the high arc was probably intended to avoid the possibility of hitting Japanese territory. Moreover, the rocket's flight path would help North Korea secure another objective: secrecy. By sending the spent engine splashing into the deep waters of the Sea of Japan, Pyongyang ensured it would be hard, if not impossible, for U.S. and Japanese divers to retrieve the parts.

• Joby Warrick joined The Washington Post's national staff in 1996. He has covered national security, the environment and the Middle East and currently writes about terrorism. He is the author of two books, including 2015's “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/0385538219), which was awarded a 2016 Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction.

__________________________________________________________________________

More on this topic:

• North Korea showed off a lot of missiles. What might be its targets? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/north-korea-targets)

• North Korean missiles getting an important boost — from China (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kim-jong-uns-rockets-are-getting-an-important-boost--from-china/2017/04/12/4893b0be-1a43-11e7-bcc2-7d1a0973e7b2_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-north-koreas-missile-was-a-real-icbm--and-a-grave-milestone/2017/07/04/554bb81e-60da-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-north-koreas-missile-was-a-real-icbm--and-a-grave-milestone/2017/07/04/554bb81e-60da-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html)

from the Los Angeles Times....

U.S. says North Korea's ICBM launch is ‘a new escalation
of the threat to the United States’ and the world

The test still may be the North's most successful yet; a weapon analyst
says the missile could be powerful enough to reach Alaska.

By MATT STILES and JONATHAN KAIMAN | 8:05PM PDT - Tuesday, July 04, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Tribune%20Images/latimes_20170704_1499178182_Hwasong14MissileLaunch_zpsot3dulbi.jpg~original) (http://www.trbimg.com/img-595ba4cc/turbine/la-1499178182-xf2kkcl0dz-snap-image)
A photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what is said to be the launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile
in North Korea on July 4th. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency.

SIX MONTHS AGO, North Korea's dynastic leader, Kim Jong Un, announced in clear terms his nation's resolve to develop a ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental United States.

Such an accomplishment would surely shift the power dynamic in Northeast Asia — and help cement the government's long-sought status as a nuclear state.

It appears Kim has gotten his wish.

North Korea announced on Tuesday that it had, at long last, test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile — a “glistening miracle”, as state news described it.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson condemned what he acknowledged was an ICBM test, saying the launch represents "a new escalation of the threat to the United States, our allies and partners, the region and the world.”

The news means an already intractable problem posed by Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear and missile programs just became more difficult for the United States and its regional allies.

“It's really, really significant from a technological and political standpoint,” said Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California who studies North Korea's missile program.

A report in North Korean state media on Wednesday said a smiling Kim, speaking to his scientists, referred to the “package of gifts” they had delivered on the U.S. Independence Day, and urged them to “frequently send big and small ‘gift packages’ to the Yankees,” according to the Associated Press.

The report said Kim “stressed that the protracted showdown with the U.S. imperialists has reached its final phase and it is the time for [North Korea] to demonstrate its mettle to the U.S., which is testing its will in defiance of its warning.”

American and South Korean officials, while confirming the launch and expressing concern, said in their initial assessments that the missile appeared to be somewhat less capable than North Korea announced.

Tillerson called upon all nations to publicly stand together against North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons — as diplomats from the United States, Japan and South Korea requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss the launch.

“Global action is required to stop a global threat,” Tillerson said in a statement. “Any country that hosts North Korean guest workers, provides any economic or military benefits, or fails to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions is aiding and abetting a dangerous regime.”

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and her counterparts from Japan and South Korea called for a Security Council meeting on Wednesday.

“As we, along with others, have made clear: We will never accept a nuclear-armed North Korea,” Tillerson said.

The U.S. Army and South Korea military conducted a combined missile exercise Tuesday as a show of force in response to North Korea's test.

Multiple Hyunmoo-2 missiles, capable of striking any target in North Korea, were blasted from launchers along South Korea's eastern coastline into the South’s territorial waters. The exercise took place within 10 miles of the demilitarized zone separating North and South.

“The deep strike precision capability enables the [South Korean]-U.S. alliance to engage the full array of time critical targets under all weather conditions,” the U.S. Army said in a statement.

The initial questions about North Korea's claim appeared to be about the performance and range of the missile — not the fact that Pyongyang had significantly improved its capability. By any measure, the missile appeared to be the longest-range military device North Korea has tested.

The apparently successful test wasn't a surprise for security analysts and military officials like Hanham, who were watching in the fall when North Korea suffered two mysterious and explosive missile failures at the same launch facility.

North Korea has also recently released images from rocket engine tests and displayed what appeared to be several intercontinental ballistic missiles at a massive military parade in Pyongyang this spring. The government has accelerated the pace of its missile testing program in recent years under Kim, a grandson of Kim Il Sung, the nation's late communist patriarch.

But the new capability — a clear violation of Security Council resolutions — seems to have crossed a psychological threshold. It already has led to widespread alarm that other, shorter-range ballistic missile tests this year haven't provoked.

“Politically, it's a game changer,” said Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

Tuesday's test, conducted about 9:40 a.m. from Banghyon airfield near the northwestern town of Kusong, was North Korea's 12th and most significant launch this year.

North Korean media released images of a smiling Kim, who reportedly watched the test nearby on a panel of computer monitors. Other images showed the leader surrounded by celebrating military commanders.

The device, which North Korea called the Hwasong-14, flew on a trajectory more than 1,700 miles into the atmosphere — farther than the International Space Station — for about 40 minutes. It landed more than 500 miles east, in the Sea of Japan, which Koreans call the East Sea.

In theory, the missile's range could have allowed it to reach Alaska on a flatter trajectory, though such a flight path would have introduced other technical complexities and physical hurdles for the North's scientists.

Still, it's a significant accomplishment for the government. “When I heard it was a 40-minute flight,” Hanham said, “my stomach just dropped.”

Newly elected South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who recently discussed North Korea at a summit with President Trump in Washington, convened an emergency security meeting. He also called on the international community to “take action.”

But for South Korea and the United States, which has 28,000 troops on the Korean peninsula, a list of bad options for slowing or stopping North Korea now appears even more limited.

Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs have perplexed the last three American presidents. They have tried negotiation, economic aid, international sanctions, diplomatic pressure and even covert action.

The strategies have failed. Experts now believe North Korea is an established nuclear state with more than a dozen devices. A key question had been whether the government could deliver its weapons globally.

Experts believe North Korea needs more time to miniaturize its warheads so that they can be launched on missiles. And scientists there still would need to figure out how to get the warheads to safely and accurately re-enter the atmosphere en route to a target.

Still, the aim of long-range delivery now appears within sight despite Trump's pre-inauguration tweet in January vowing, “It won't happen!”

The Trump administration has announced a new policy of imposing “maximum pressure” on North Korea, calling for sanctions but also dialogue if the regime ends its program. The administration has left open the possibility of a military strike, but that could prove catastrophic.

North Korea, for example, could retaliate with its masses of conventional weapons, such as artillery, along the border that is about 40 miles from Seoul, a metropolitan area of more than 20 million residents.

Some believe the United States and other countries that have concerns about North Korea's nuclear and missile programs should negotiate a freeze on testing and perhaps a return of international inspectors to North Korean laboratories.

With all the focus on missiles lately, it's easy to forget that the North could perform its sixth underground nuclear detonation test any day — another provocation that would further increase the sense of crisis in the region, said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“There are some diplomatic options — they're not great — but they're probably what we should do,” he said.

Trump had hoped that China — North Korea's only significant trading partner — would help solve the problem. But in recent weeks his administration has grown frustrated with what it claims is a lack of pressure by Beijing on Pyongyang, concerns Trump reportedly expressed in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week.

“Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!” Trump tweeted after the launch.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang insisted China has already made “relentless efforts” to stem North Korea's nuclear ambitions. And he repeated China's usual refrain, calling for a stop to actions that violate United Nations resolutions but emphasizing a need for calm and restraint.

Some question whether there's much more that can be done by China, which also fears that a leadership change in Pyongyang could lead to a North Korean refugee crisis or even a unified Korea that counts the United States as an ally.

“Even if you cancel most of the trade between China and North Korea, I think Kim Jong Un would still be determined to do these nuclear activities,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at People's University in Beijing. “I think the problem from China's perspective is quite serious. And the issue is that China still can’t find a way out of this predicament.”

China announced in February that it would ban North Korean coal imports for the rest of 2017, in line with United Nations sanctions. Yet visitors to the China-North Korea border have witnessed coal trucks crossing, casting doubt on the ban's efficacy, and China's trade with North Korea grew nearly 40% in the first quarter of the year, according to Chinese official figures.

North Korea announced Tuesday's launch on state television, using a familiar news anchor seen in other major announcements, a middle-aged woman in a pink hanbok, the traditional Korean dress.

“The success of the last stage of becoming a nuclear power state is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile,” she read in a booming cadence familiar to North Korea watchers.

Her report added that the test shows the “unwithering power of our state, our strong independence and defense in the world, and will be marked as a significant mark in our history.”

The announcement came after a nearly 30-minute montage featuring soaring socialist songs and patriotic imagery, including panoramas of the Pyongyang skyline and Mount Paektu, a volcano included in the country's national emblem.

The montage also briefly included a soaring missile, which perhaps has now given North Korea an advantage it might retain for some time.

“At this point, it's no longer about de-nuclearizing the Korean peninsula,” Hanham said. “Now it's just about containing North Korea as best we can.”

• Matt Stiles reported from Seoul and Jonathan Kaiman reported from Beijing.

• Matt Stiles is a freelance journalist based in Seoul who writes for the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, NPR, the Chicago Tribune, The Sydney Morning Herald and the Houston chronicle, as well as several other newspapers.

• Jonathan Kaiman is the Los Angeles Times' Beijing bureau chief. He was previously a correspondent for The Guardian, a freelance writer and a Fulbright scholar researching folklore in China's rural southwest. He graduated from Vassar College.

__________________________________________________________________________

Read more on this topic:

• Trump suggests China should step in after North Korean missile test (http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-trump-suggests-china-should-step-in-1499184237-htmlstory.html)

• As the world focuses on its nuclear ambitions, North Korea deploys another weapon: Drones (http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-north-korea-drone-2017-story.html)

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-20170704-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-20170704-story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Trump has never had a plan for dealing with North Korea

Trump's only plan was to make China solve the problem.

By PHILIP BUMP | 10:34AM EDT - Wednesday, July 05, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705xjdt_XiJinping_DonaldTrump_zps8thijr3p.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/05/15/Editorial-Opinion/Images/AFP_OB936.jpg&w=1484)
Since his inauguration, President Trump’s tone on Twitter has oscillated between blaming China for North Korea and dismissing
China as unnecessary in containing the problem. — Jim Watson/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

WE forget sometimes that President Trump's political rhetoric was forged not over years of policymaking or in discussions with experts on foreign policy and domestic issues, but in weekly phone interviews with “Fox and Friends”. Before he declared his candidacy, the real estate developer and TV personality would appear on the program every Monday morning, weighing in on the issues of the day as the hosts offered their now-familiar lack of criticism of his musings.

On April 8th, 2013, for example, Trump called in (http://video.foxnews.com/v/2285474911001/?playlist_id=930909787001#sp=show-clips) to discuss a variety of subjects: his show, “Celebrity Apprentice”, WrestleMania — oh, and North Korea.

Host Steve Doocy broached that subject by noting that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might soon test a nuclear weapon “or do something dopey like that” — but that China might actually be starting to put pressure on the rogue nation.

“Well, I think China has total control over the situation,” Trump responded. North Korea “wouldn't exist for a month without China. And I think China, frankly, as you know — and I've been saying it for a long time, and people are starting to see that I'm right — China is not our friend.”

He had been saying this for a while, in fact. He tweeted about it (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/317962835974053888) in March of that year, saying that, “China could solve this problem easily if they wanted to, but they have no respect for our leaders.” A few weeks later, another tweet (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/320161090732433409): “North Korea can't survive, or even eat, without the help of China. China could solve this problem with one phone call — they love taunting us!”

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt01_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsxavffsjb.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/322792909780963328)

How did “Fox and Friends” reply to Trump's argument? Well, the conversation quickly transitioned to Trump having been inaugurated into the pro wrestling Hall of Fame.

To be fair, Trump wasn't a politician then, so there was much less of a reason to demand a hard answer. Of course, there was also little reason to ask his opinion. But this is the crucible in which Trump's policy on North Korea was formed — and over the course of the presidential campaign, it didn't evolve much.

During the Republican primary debates last year, Trump's argument was consistent: North Korea was China's problem, and China wasn't dealing with it because they didn't respect President Barack Obama since Obama wouldn't strong-arm them. In a January 2016 debate, Trump argued (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/14/6th-republican-debate-transcript-annotated-who-said-what-and-what-it-meant) that China was “ripping us on trade” and that the country was “devaluing their currency,” implying that he might use tariffs and a crackdown on that manipulation to bring China to heel on the North Korea issue.

The following month, Trump put the whole issue in China's lap (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/06/transcript-of-the-feb-6-gop-debate-annotated):

I deal with them. They tell me. They have total, absolute control, practically, of North Korea. They are sucking trillions of dollars out of our country — they're rebuilding China with the money they take out of our country. I would get on with China, let China solve that problem. They can do it quickly and surgically. That's what we should do with North Korea.

In a debate the following March, Trump criticized how Obama and other presidents had handled tensions, saying that “every time this maniac from North Korea does anything, we immediately send our ships. We get virtually nothing.” (In April of this year, Trump's administration said it was sending an armada to North Korea in response to Kim’s saber-rattling, but no ships were actually en route (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/04/19/where-americas-carrier-groups-were-as-the-administration-talked-about-its-armada).)

To The New York Times at that time (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html), Trump was explicit in his charge that Obama was impotent on the issue.

China says well we'll try. I can see them saying, “We'll try, we'll try.” And I can see them laughing in the room next door when they're together. So China should be talking to North Korea. But China's tweaking us. China's toying with us. They are when they're building in the South China Sea. They should not be doing that but they have no respect for our country and they have no respect for our president.

In a speech in April 2016, Trump said (http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=117813) that “President Obama watches helplessly as North Korea increases its aggression and expands even further with its nuclear reach. Our president has allowed China to continue its economic assault on American jobs and wealth, refusing to enforce trade rules — or apply the leverage on China necessary to rein in North Korea.”

Once he won the GOP presidential nomination, Trump repeatedly hammered Democratic rival Hillary Clinton on her failure to curtail the North Korea problem when she was the secretary of state. His campaign created a lengthy list of ways in which Clinton had failed (http://web.archive.org/web/20161018024724/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/clinton-is-weak-on-north-korea), citing news reports of successful nuclear tests and rocket launches a few months into Clinton's State Department tenure. Despite that, his campaign's national defense platform included only one mention of North Korea (https://web.archive.org/web/20170101080611/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/national-defense), arguing that the United States should bolster its missile defenses.

During the general-election debates, Trump stuck to the same theme. “China should solve that problem for us,” he said in September 2016 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/26/the-first-trump-clinton-presidential-debate-transcript-annotated). “China should go into North Korea. China is totally powerful as it relates to North Korea.”

When Trump met with Obama during the presidential transition, Obama reportedly warned Trump (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html) that North Korea would be the most urgent problem he would face. Trump, during that period, continued to argue that China must address the North Korea threat and that, under his watch, no North Korean weapon could strike the United States.

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt02_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpspejgoqlz.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/816057920223846400)

Once he became president, though, Trump's tone shifted.

In April of this year, with the 100-day mark of his presidency looming, Trump told Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/04/12/president-trumps-throughly-confusing-fox-business-interview-annotated) that getting China to fix the problem was not that simple. Describing a conversation with President Xi Jinping of China, Trump said that North Korea was the first thing he brought up. However, Xi “then explain[ed] thousands of years of history with Korea. Not that easy.”

“In other words,” Trump said, “not as simple as people would think.”

Since his inauguration, his tone on Twitter has oscillated between blaming China for North Korea and dismissing China as unnecessary in containing the problem.

March:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt03_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zps5a1lsh4k.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/842724011234791424)

April:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt04_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsvfstwmzu.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852508752142114816)

(He made this point that same month in an interview with the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/4d9f65d6-17bd-11e7-9c35-0dd2cb31823a?mhq5j=e2), saying that “if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you.”)

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt05_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsdrvggpxb.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/855406847200768000)

May:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt06_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsucb6eqft.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/869166145894535169)

June:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt07_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsuaxqmzgu.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/877234140483121152)

July:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt08_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsmzmepn49.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882062572081512449)

China can fix this and needs to. Maybe China can fix this. If China doesn't fix this, we will. China isn’t fixing this, but can.

The reason for this back-and-forth is obvious: Trump promised that he could put pressure on the Chinese to cut off North Korea, forcing that nation to end its nuclear ambitions. But once Trump took office, that policy proved to be much harder than he'd presented. So, lacking an obvious solution (since none exists), he continues to try to blame China's policy while explaining why the Chinese haven't been moved to action.

As he's done so, he's been put in the uncomfortable position of having to wave away his past promises. On labeling China a currency manipulator, for example, he told “Fox and Friends” in April that he wouldn't press that issue as long as China was working with the United States on North Korea.

“[W]hat am I going to do, start a trade war with China in the middle of him working on a bigger problem — frankly — with North Korea?” Trump said to host Ainsley Earhardt. “So I'm dealing with China with great respect. I have great respect for him. We'll see what he can do. Now maybe he won't be able to help. That’s possible. I think he's trying, but maybe he won't be able to help. And that's a whole different story. So we'll see what happens.”

He said as much on Twitter.

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt09_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsj5scs65t.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853583417916755968)

To Earhardt, Trump also praised China's rejection of coal ships from North Korea as evidence that the country was trying to pressure the North Koreans. On Wednesday morning, though, he seemed to claim defeat.

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705twdjt10_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zps9kvjxavi.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882560030884716544)

The implication, then, is that Trump will now take the economic actions against China that he once promised.

But, then, he's already given himself an out on talking about what he intends to do. During a news conference in February, Trump insisted to reporters that, in essence, his plans for North Korea were none of their business.

“I don't have to tell you. I don't want to be one of these guys that say, ‘Yes, here's what we're going to do’. I don't have to do that. I don't have to tell you what I'm going to do in North Korea,” he said. “I don't have to tell you what I'm going to do in North Korea. And I don't have to tell you what I'm going to do with Iran. You know why? Because they shouldn't know. And eventually, you guys are going to get tired of asking that question.”

The president's current conundrum is twofold. First, there's no easy solution. Second, Trump promised that there was one.

Had his policy been crafted by a team other than Fox's early-morning talk show hosts, that second problem might not exist.

• Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Washington Post based in New York City.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related stories:

• Trump’s naive approach to North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/07/05/daily-202-missile-test-underscores-the-failure-of-trump-s-naive-approach-to-north-korea/595bf674e9b69b7071abca58)

• As U.S. and South Korea conduct military exercises, North Korea's leader taunts Trump over ICBM (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-and-south-korea-confirm-icbm-test-launch-joint-military-exercises-/2017/07/05/9b2bf812-60df-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/07/05/trump-has-never-had-a-plan-for-dealing-with-north-korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/07/05/trump-has-never-had-a-plan-for-dealing-with-north-korea)

I'm sure China and Russia are quaking in their boots....SNIGGER!!

from The Washington Post....

U.S. diplomat blasts China and Russia for ‘holding the hands’ of North Korean leader

Haley's pointed remarks at the U.N. came in reaction to a successful ballistic missile test by Pyongyang.

By DAVID NAKAMURA and EMILY RAUHALA | 7:42PM EDT - Wednesday, July 05, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705h14icbm_Hwasong14ICBM_zpsovskpgb9.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/05/Production/Daily/A-Section/Images/AFP_QA88O.jpg)
North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on Wednesday released this photo it says shows the successful test-fire of an
intercontinental ballistic missile. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/KNS/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

THE top U.S. diplomat at the United Nations blasted Russia and China on Wednesday for “holding the hands” of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, as the Trump administration struggled to respond to Pyongyang's latest ballistic missile test.

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley chided Moscow and Beijing over their opposition to a Security Council resolution condemning North Korea and imposing greater economic sanctions for what she called its “sharp military escalation.”

She also said Pyongyang was “quickly closing off the possibility of a diplomatic solution” and suggested the United States would continue to consider military action if necessary.

“One of our capabilities lies with our considerable military forces,” Haley said during a Security Council meeting in New York. “We will use them if we must, but we prefer not to have to go in that direction.”

Haley's pointed speech marked the latest effort by the Trump administration to rally allies and rivals around a common agenda to blunt North Korea's progress, days after Kim's regime tested an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range that experts said would put it within reach of Alaska.

But her remarks also illustrated the limits of the White House's options and lacked specifics about what concrete steps the administration is considering. The missile test marks a new level of advancement in Kim's pursuit of a nuclear weapon that could strike the continental United States. Analysts said a military confrontation could escalate quickly into a mass-casualty war across the Korean Peninsula and Japan, where the United States has stationed tens of thousands of troops.

The standoff cast a shadow as President Trump prepared for his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his second with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit, which opens Friday in Hamburg. Trump also will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the heads of U.S. allies Britain and Germany.

“We've been pretty consistent that we are never going to broadcast next steps,” deputy White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters aboard Air Force One as the president traveled during Wednesday to a short stop in Warsaw.

Before leaving Washington, Trump revealed more frustration with Xi, whom he has personally lobbied to enact sanctions on Chinese banks that do business with North Korean companies. The U.S. Treasury Department announced last week that it would block the Bank of Dandong (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-announces-sanctions-on-chinese-bank-arms-sales-package-for-taiwan/2017/06/29/c0b66e3c-5d0b-11e7-a9f6-7c3296387341_story.html), along the border region between China and North Korea, from accessing U.S. markets. Officials said this was the first of potentially greater sanctions by the United States.

On Twitter, Trump wrote: “Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try!”

Chinese data released in April showed that China's trade with North Korea grew 37.4 percent during the first three months of the year compared with the same period in 2016. China said then that overall trade grew even as it complied with U.N. sanctions and stopped buying North Korean coal.

Russian and Chinese diplomats used the U.N. Security Council meeting to push their joint proposal for a suspension of North Korean nuclear and missile testing in exchange for a suspension of U.S. and South Korean military exercises. Both countries also condemned the U.S. antimissile system being deployed in South Korea and called for it to be removed.

Early on Wednesday in Asia, U.S. and South Korean forces fired missiles in joint military exercises (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-and-south-korea-confirm-icbm-test-launch-joint-military-exercises-/2017/07/05/9b2bf812-60df-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html) that the U.S. Pacific Command cast as a show of “ironclad” resolve.

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705skah_SouthKoreaArmyHowitzers_zpsfa93qubd.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/05/Foreign/Images/South_Korea_Koreas_Tensions_30510-20020.jpg)
South Korean army howitzers are shown Wednesday during military exercises in Paju, near the border with North Korea.
— Photograph: Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press.

Daniel Pinkston, a lecturer in international relations at Troy University in Seoul, said he saw no chance that Washington and Seoul would agree to halt joint exercises, calling it “a non-starter”.

During the U.N. meeting, a Russian official questioned whether North Korea’s missile was an ICBM, suggesting it was an intermediate-range weapon.

That prompted Haley to request a second turn at the microphone, during which she said: “If you see this as a threat, if you see this for what it is, which is North Korea showing its muscle, then you need to stand strong…. If you choose not to, we will go our own path.”

Danny Russel, who served as senior Asia director at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, said Trump has a “rare blue moon” opportunity this week to meet with and rally the major players — China and Russia on one side and Japan and South Korea on the other — toward some sort of unified display of condemnation of North Korea.

“What the administration needs to do is get China and Russia around an approach, even if it is not as testosterone-rich and muscular as the U.S. would like, so that the basic geometry is five on one, not three on three,” said Russel, now a diplomat in residence at the Asia Society in New York. “There is no formula, no path forward, other than war, that isn't built on some degree of common cause between Washington and Beijing.”

Victor Cha, who served as senior Asia director at the NSC under President George W. Bush, said the U.S. sanctions on the Dandong bank were “a shot across the bow at the Chinese that what is happening is not working for us. It arguably gives [Trump] a stronger position going in” to the meeting with Xi.

The missile the Kim regime launched had been in the works for years. It flew higher and remained in the air longer than previous attempts, in what experts called a milestone for North Korea.

South Korean authorities described North Korea's test as a two-stage missile with a range of about 4,300 to 5,000 miles — enough to reach Alaska and other parts of North America.

South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo said there is a high probability that Pyongyang will stage another nuclear test and noted gains in its efforts to miniaturize a warhead — steps toward developing nuclear-tipped weapons capable of hitting the mainland United States.

Pyongyang's test appeared to catch the United States by surprise. The Pentagon initially mislabeled the activity as a test of an intermediate-range missile before reclassifying it on Wednesday as an ICBM with a range of at least 5,500 kilometers.

Navy Captain Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said that the missile “is not one we have seen before” and that it was launched from a site — the Panghyon airfield about 90 miles north of Pyongyang — that has not been used to test missiles before.

He emphasized that North Korea still has a number of steps to meet before a threat to North America is imminent, noting that Pyongyang has not yet demonstrated the ability to mount a nuclear warhead on an ICBM or show the lateral range necessary.

“But clearly, they are working on it,” he said.

• Emily Rauhala reported from Beijing. Anne Gearan and Dan Lamothe in Washington contributed to this report.

• David Nakamura covers the White House for The Washington Post. He has previously covered sports, education and city government and reported from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Japan.

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong of.

__________________________________________________________________________

More on this topic:

• VIDEO: U.S. threatens military force against North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/4b4afc7e-61bd-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_video.html)

• U.N. Ambassador Haley's complaint: ‘Spending my 4th in meetings’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/07/05/u-n-ambassador-nikki-haleys-complaint-about-north-korea-missile-spending-my-4th-in-meetings)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-diplomat-blasts-china-and-russia-for-holding-the-hand-of-north-korean-leader/2017/07/05/605de900-61b3-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-diplomat-blasts-china-and-russia-for-holding-the-hand-of-north-korean-leader/2017/07/05/605de900-61b3-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

EDITORIAL: What Trump can do about North Korea

Kim Jong Un launched an ICBM. Trump has options on how to respond.

By EDITORIAL BOARD | 7:57PM EDT - Wednesday, July 05, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170705kju_KimJongUn_zpsgfqabtyz.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/05/Editorial-Opinion/Images/AFP_QA84J.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un reportedly celebrating the successful test-fire of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
— Photograph: STR/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

IT WOULD be difficult to overstate the danger posed by North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-north-koreas-missile-was-a-real-icbm--and-a-grave-milestone/2017/07/04/554bb81e-60da-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html) potentially capable of reaching U.S. territory. The exercise brought this country, and the world, that much closer to the moment — perhaps only a couple of years away — when the Pyongyang regime may be able to arm such a missile with a nuclear warhead and threaten not only Alaska and Hawaii but also Washington, Oregon and California. Against that deeply destabilizing threat, the Trump administration must now rally not only Republicans and Democrats within this badly polarized country but also the widest possible range of like-minded countries around the world.

Is President Trump capable of doing that? He deserves credit for restoring urgency about North Korea's weapons programs, having openly disavowed his predecessor's ineffectual stance of “strategic patience”, before the latest missile test. Mr. Trump was also well-advised to seek help from China, Pyongyang’s sponsor, in reining in the North, even if that is not exactly a new idea. Less admirable, alas, was the manner of his outreach to Beijing — a series of tweets about President Xi Jinping that ranged from embarrassingly fawning to prematurely frustrated. This is no way to conduct diplomacy, but then again, Mr. Trump has not yet even nominated anyone to fill key State Department positions for East Asia (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/database), international security and nuclear proliferation issues.

Mr. Trump is an unlikely orchestrator of a multilateral approach, given both his erratic conduct and his off-putting rhetoric about “America first”. Still, other countries might yet be induced to follow his lead if he can convince them both that he has a credible plan and that the alternative might be far worse — war in Northeast Asia. The third way between more fruitless talks and a catastrophically risky preemptive war would be to impose on the North, for the first time, truly stringent economic sanctions, comparable to the ones that brought Iran to the nuclear bargaining table.

To be sure, that could be a recipe for short-term tension with China, because it's Chinese banks that help North Korea trade in U.S. dollars and Chinese companies that continue to supply North Korea with food, energy and “dual-use” materiel that helps its nuclear program. And China might not be the only nation inconvenienced if there were a serious effort to choke off the North's supply of hard currency; North Korean workers have been contracted out in Russia, Qatar and, until last year, even democratic Poland. Early indications were not auspicious for such an effort; on Tuesday, Russia and China jointly called on the United States and South Korea to abandon military exercises (http://time.com/4844476/russia-china-north-korea-us-military) in return for a suspension by North Korea of missile testing.

Washington and Seoul rejected the false equivalence of that approach, demonstrating that their essential solidarity is intact despite recent disagreements between the new presidents in each capital — and Pyongyang's obvious efforts to shake it. From this, Mr. Trump must construct a widening circle of co-operation against the North, a long-term effort that will require overcoming the resistance of skeptical governments — and his own most impulsive tendencies.

__________________________________________________________________________

Read more on this topic:

• Josh Rogin: American hostages could be key to talks with North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/07/05/american-hostages-could-be-key-to-talks-with-north-korea)

• Paul Waldman: President Trump may be about to face his first full-blown international crisis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/07/05/president-trump-may-be-about-to-face-his-first-full-blown-international-crisis)

• Jake Sullivan and Victor Cha: The right way to play the China card on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-right-way-to-play-the-china-card-on-north-korea/2017/07/05/6d223aa0-6187-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-can-trump-do-about-the-spiking-danger-from-north-korea/2017/07/05/31f8c5a2-61b4-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-can-trump-do-about-the-spiking-danger-from-north-korea/2017/07/05/31f8c5a2-61b4-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

Donald Trump: “I'll huff and I'll puff … and I'll … I'll … I'll … (http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww32/XtraNewsCommunity2/Animated%20emoticons/05_Laughing.gif)(http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww32/XtraNewsCommunity2/Animated%20emoticons/06_ROFL.gif)(http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww32/XtraNewsCommunity2/Animated%20emoticons/05_Laughing.gif) (http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww32/XtraNewsCommunity2/Animated%20emoticons/09_ROFLMAO.gif) (http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww32/XtraNewsCommunity2/Animated%20emoticons/07_LaughOutLoud.gif)

from The Washington Post....

Trump warns of ‘severe’ consequences for North Korea
as Russia, China balk at tough U.S. talk

The president didn’t go into detail on any specifics but said that he’s considering
“some pretty severe things” in response to North Korea's test-firing of an
intercontinental ballistic missile. However, the administration's plans
to counter the regime appear increasingly at odds with what
Russia and China have in mind.

By EMILY RAUHALA | 7:00AM EDT - Thursday, July 06, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170706dtp_DonaldTrumpPoland_zpskcycmvjo.jpg~original) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/06/Foreign/Images/Poland_Trump_69053-6b70f.jpg)
Donald Trump during a visit to Poland before attending the G-20 meeting.

BEIJING — President Trump warned on Thursday that North Korea could face “some pretty severe” consequences after its defiant test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/north-korea-claims-successful-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-test-defying-international-condemnation/2017/07/04/4f804488-609c-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html), but Washington also confronted firm opposition from Russia and China over any possible response.

Trump did not specify potential U.S.-directed punishment for North Korea, which on Tuesday launched a missile that experts say had a range capable of reaching Alaska. Yet efforts to find consensus among world powers appeared to hit a wall — sharply limiting Trump's options.

New sanctions would have little effect unless backed by China, which is the North's financial lifeline. Russia also has rejected further economic pressures on the regime of Kim Jung Un.

With key players at odds, Trump must now find a way forward as he heads into Group of 20 meetings in Germany later on Thursday. In Germany, Trump is expected to have his second meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his first with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin.

In Warsaw, Trump said the United States was considering “some pretty severe things” in response to what he called “very, very bad behavior” from the North, though he did not mention any specific plans.

“Something will have to be done about it,” he said.

At an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley accused China and Russia (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-diplomat-blasts-china-and-russia-for-holding-the-hand-of-north-korean-leader/2017/07/05/605de900-61b3-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html) of “holding the hands” of the North Korean leader Kim.

Haley chided Beijing and Moscow for not supporting a resolution that would tighten sanctions and hinted that the United States would consider the use of force.

“One of our capabilities lies with our considerable military forces,” she said. “We will use them if we must, but we prefer not to have to go in that direction.”

Her words were met with criticism from Vladimir Safronkov (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nikki-haley-clashes-with-russian-diplomat-over-north-korea/article/2627834), Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, who called stricter sanctions “not acceptable” and military action “inadmissible”.

At a daily briefing in Beijing on Thursday, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry backed him up, calling for calm (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN19P02W) in response to U.S. remarks.

After his first meeting with Xi (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/at-mar-a-lago-trump-to-welcome-chinas-xi-for-high-stakes-inaugural-summit/2017/04/06/0235cdd0-1ac2-11e7-bcc2-7d1a0973e7b2_story.html) in April, Trump came out confident that China was on his side and would pressure Pyongyang to stop building weapons. That plan, as he recently tweeted (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/877234140483121152), “has not worked out.”

In recent weeks, Trump has stepped up his criticism of China. “Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40 percent in the first quarter,” he tweeted on Wednesday (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882560030884716544), without noting the source of the statistic. “So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try!”

But U.S. tough talk seems unlikely to bring Beijing on side, experts said.

The U.S. response to the ICBM test so far has encompassed joint military exercises with the South Koreans, calls for stricter sanctions on those doing business with North Korea and high-level warnings of military action — all of which are at odds with Chinese plans.

It's not that China does not care about the North Korean threat — it does — but that it sees it differently, analysts said.

Beijing and Pyongyang were once communist brothers-in-arms at war with American forces. Those days are long gone, but the memory of the 1950-1953 Korean War looms large.

The fact that thousands of U.S. soldiers are still stationed in South Korea is a sore point for Beijing, which would rather not have the American military at their doorstep. The Chinese side often sees U.S. moves in South Korea, from joint exercises to missile defense (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-warns-of-consequences-over-deployment-of-us-anti-missile-system/2017/03/07/dd5ca494-0319-11e7-a391-651727e77fc0_story.html) as maneuvers designed to counter Chinese military might.

Indeed, the “double suspension” plan pitched by China and Russia in the wake of the ICBM test calls for the United States and South Korea to suspend joint military exercises and for North Korea to freeze its weapons programs.

Over the years, Trump has said again and again (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/07/05/trump-has-never-had-a-plan-for-dealing-with-north-korea) that China is the key to squeezing the regime into submission. However, China does not appear willing to topple Kim.

“It's not very likely that China will follow the will of the U.S. and put a ‘heavy move’ on North Korea, like what President Trump has called for,” said Deng Yuwen, a Beijing-based expert on North Korea.

“It would expand sanctions, but there is a bottom line and the bottom line is that it won't sanction North Korea such that it causes chaos in the North,” he added.

Lastly, Beijing does not have the same sense of urgency when it comes to the North Korea. China has always been in reach of North Korea's military, so the development of an ICBM is not as much of a game-changer.

Plus, China's leadership remains focused on domestic issues, namely key political meetings set for the fall, said Michael Kovrig, a Beijing-based senior adviser for the International Crisis Group, and officials are unlikely to make any move that could threaten their bases of support.

“Chinese analysts continue to argue that no amount of pressure, short of what might cause a collapse, will bring North Korea to denuclearize,” Kovrig said.

“Beijing's prescription is still to coax rather than to pressure. Unlike the U.S., it's not in a hurry and hopes that economic incentives can gradually induce Pyongyang to moderate its behavior.”

• Luna Lin and Shirley Feng reported from Beijing.

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trump-warns-of-severe-consequences-for-north-korea-as-russia-china-balk-at-tough-us-talk/2017/07/06/f176634c-61ca-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trump-warns-of-severe-consequences-for-north-korea-as-russia-china-balk-at-tough-us-talk/2017/07/06/f176634c-61ca-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

We think North Korea is crazy. What if we're wrong?

Washington believes the regime is irrational and can't be negotiated with.
But look at the situation from North Korea's perspective.

By FAREED ZAKARIA | 6:25PM EDT - Thursday, July 06, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170706nks_NorthKoreaSoldiers_zpsxrhvdgfg.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_2500w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/North_Korea_Koreas_Tension_77732-352d5-2292.jpg)
Soldiers gather in Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang. — Photograph: Jon Chol Jin/Associated Press.

IN WASHINGTON there is a conventional wisdom on North Korea that spans both parties and much of elite opinion. It goes roughly like this: North Korea is the world's most bizarre country, run by a crackpot dictator with a strange haircut. He is unpredictable and irrational and cannot be negotiated with. Eventually this weird and cruel regime will collapse. Meanwhile, the only solution is more and more pressure. But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong?

The North Korean regime has survived for almost seven decades, preserving not just its basic form of government but also its family dynasty, father to son to grandson (http://time.com/4681304/north-korea-kim-family-album). It has persisted through the fall of the Soviet Union and its communist satellites, the Orange Revolution, the Arab Spring and the demise of other Asian dictatorships, from South Korea to Taiwan to Indonesia.

The Kim dynasty has been able to achieve striking success in its primary objective — survival. Of course, this is because it rules in a brutal and oppressive fashion, but so did many other regimes, such as Romania, Syria and Burma. But somehow North Korea has maintained its system.

Kim Jong Un is a young man but has been highly effective at preserving his authority. He has secured the support of the military and sidelined or killed anyone who threatened his grip on power — including his uncle and, allegedly, his half brother (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kim-jong-uns-half-brother-was-killed-by-vx-nerve-agent-a-chemical-weapon-malaysia-police-say/2017/02/23/636c5bda-6e63-4f8e-a5dc-9f8b54f45d0e_story.html).

Look at the world from North Korea's perspective. The regime saw the collapse of the Soviet empire and an even more unsettling transformation in China, which went from being a fiery ideological soul mate to a pragmatic trading state that has eagerly integrated into world markets. These days, Beijing seems to view Pyongyang as a nuisance, and China now often votes to condemn and place sanctions (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-un-idUSKCN18B2OP) against North Korea at the United Nations (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/02/531299587/u-n-security-council-unanimously-broadens-sanctions-on-north-korea).

And the world's most powerful country has made clear that North Korea is destined for the ash heap of history. After 9/11, when the United States was attacked by Islamist terrorists emanating from the Middle East, President George W. Bush announced that the United States would no longer tolerate an “axis of evil” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/sou012902.htm) comprising Iraq, Iran — and North Korea. It invaded Iraq. Current U.S. policy toward Iran, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently said (https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/06/27/world/middleeast/ap-un-united-nations-iran-united-states.html), is to “work toward support of those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government.” And regarding North Korea, President Trump wants China (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/882062572081512449) to “end this nonsense once and for all,” which again can only mean getting rid of the Kim government in some way.

So, the North Korean regime has tried to buy insurance. And in the realm of international affairs, the best insurance is having a nuclear capacity. Pyongyang knows that it has a large-enough army and the Korean theater of war is so small and dense that a conventional war would be unthinkable, producing hundreds of thousands of casualties (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/07/north-korea-the-war-game/304029) and millions of refugees pouring into China and South Korea. North Korea has accurately calculated that China and South Korea are more terrified of the chaos that would follow its collapse than of its nuclear arsenal.

Perhaps the right way to look at North Korea is as a smart, rational, calculating government that is functioning shrewdly given its priority of regime survival. More pressure only strengthens its resolve to buy even more insurance. How to handle it under these circumstances?

The first way to break the log-jam in U.S. policy would be to persuade China to put real pressure on its ally. That won't happen by serving President Xi Jinping chocolate cake at Mar-a-Lago. Beijing faces an understandable nightmare — under sanctions and pressure, North Korea collapses and the newly unified country becomes a giant version of South Korea, with a defense treaty with Washington, nearly 30,000 American troops (http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/30/news/us-south-korea-thaad-trump-mcmaster/index.html) and possibly dozens of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons (http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/north-koreas-nuclear-capabilities-a-fresh-look) — all on China's border.

Washington will have to promise Beijing now that in the event of unification, it would withdraw its troops, change the nature of its treaty relationship with the new Korea and, working with China, eliminate Korea's nuclear arsenal.

But pressure will work only if there is also some reason for North Korea to make concessions. Pyongyang has indicated in the past (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKCN0VU0XE) that it seeks a formal end to the Korean War (Washington signed only an armistice in 1953), a recognition of the regime and the lifting of sanctions. Obviously none of this should be offered right now, but there is no harm in talking to Pyongyang and searching for ways to trade some of these concessions for the complete eradication of the nuclear program.

It's a bitter pill for Washington to swallow, but the alternative is to hope that China will act against its interests and crush its ally, or that North Korea will finally collapse. But hope is not a strategy.

• Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Washington Post. He is also the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for The Atlantic.

__________________________________________________________________________

Read more on this topic:

• Jake Sullivan and Victor Cha: The right way to play the China card on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-right-way-to-play-the-china-card-on-north-korea/2017/07/05/6d223aa0-6187-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

• Bruce Klingner and Sue Mi Terry: We participated in talks with North Korean representatives. This is what we learned. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-participated-in-talks-with-north-korean-representatives-this-is-what-we-learned/2017/06/22/8c838284-577b-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/we-think-north-korea-is-crazy-what-if-were-wrong/2017/07/06/d13044b0-6286-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/we-think-north-korea-is-crazy-what-if-were-wrong/2017/07/06/d13044b0-6286-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea has one big advantage over its adversaries

Kim Jong Un’s dynasty has the clarity of focus lacking among the United States, China and Japan.

By CHARLES LANE | 7:44PM EDT - Thursday, July 06, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170706kjui_KimJongUnImage_zpsmfkazltu.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Japan_Koreas_Tensions_99688-4e0a0-2270.jpg)
Passersby walk in front of an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. — Photograph: Eugene Hoshiko/Associated Press.

AS YET ANOTHER CRISIS looms in Northeast Asia, don't bet against North Korea. In international affairs, as in life, clarity of purpose can be a huge advantage. And of all the parties to this seemingly endless struggle, only the regime in Pyongyang has it.

Kim Jong Un is heir to a family dynasty whose organizing principle — hold on to power, at all costs, and by any means necessary — has been constant ever since his grandfather, the “Great Leader” Kim Il Sung (http://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/09/world/kim-il-sung-dead-at-age-82-led-north-korea-5-decades-was-near-talks-with-south.html?pagewanted=all), founded it nearly seven decades ago.

To be sure, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has, or had, an ideology, Marxism-Leninism, modified per the great leader's doctrine, “juche”. It declares broad objectives, such as the reunification of North and South Korea on the former's terms.

Any and all such concerns can and will be subordinated to the prime directive, however: regime survival. Out of power, Kim, his family and his inner circle would have a bleak future, if any. This pudgy tyrant manages to be both odious and ridiculous; but the ever-present prospect of a hanging concentrates his mind.

By contrast, the United States has multiple and, indeed, conflicting interests. It wants to eliminate the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and missile technology, obviously. Washington would like to see human rights and democracy prevail. But it is not willing to achieve these goals at the risk of war, whose most likely outcome would be Pyrrhic victory, with the Kim dynasty overthrown but many thousands of Americans dead and wealthy, democratic South Korea in ruins.

This would be true no matter who was president, which is why U.S. policy under Democratic and Republican administrations has been characterized by a cycle of threats and negotiations, all essentially futile, since North Korea's nuclear weapons program first became an issue a quarter-century ago.

The United States might be able to chart a clearer course if its ally South Korea's goals were as plain and simple as those of its evil twin north of the 38th parallel (https://www.britannica.com/place/38th-parallel). Yet South Korea's ambivalence may exceed Washington's: Seoul has no appetite for fratricidal war and even frets that peaceful regime change would saddle it with huge costs of reunification.

Not surprisingly, South Korean leaders periodically succumb to magical thinking about the prospects for diplomatic engagement toward their long-lost brethren, which they call a “sunshine policy”. The new president in Seoul, Moon Jae-in, is the latest case in point.

For its part, Japan fears North Korea as much as the United States does, if not more, since it is already well within missile range. Tokyo, though, makes a problematic ally due to its history as a hated colonial power in Korea. Deep down, the Japanese aren't sure whether a united Korea, even a democratic, capitalist one, would be in their long-term interest, given the old rivalries.

Similar misgivings plague China, the deus ex machina of U.S. strategy, such as it is, under President Trump — though this is hardly a new hope, since Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, also wished for China to apply enough pressure on Pyongyang to get it to abandon nukes.

Dream on. For all its evident exasperation with the impetuous new kid in Pyongyang, China has long-standing ties to the Kim dynasty going back to the Korean War, during which the People's Liberation Army shed a sea of blood on its client's behalf.

Such commitments are not easily abandoned, especially when such a break could ultimately lead to a new, united Korea, democratic and allied with the United States, right on China's border.

Korea's final neighbor, Russia, triggered this crisis, in the sense that the Soviet Union's collapse deprived Pyongyang of military and economic support, obliging first Kim Il Sung and then his son Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Un's father), to improvise survival through nuclear blackmail.

However, the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin has no interest in a definitive solution. As long as the conflict does not erupt in actual war, Moscow is happy to have it drain and distract the United States. This is why Moscow does business with South Korea but also has more recently been strengthening its economic ties to North Korea.

Undoubtedly, North Korea could miscalculate and push the United States past the point where there is no alternative to ending the standoff through force. That's always a risk, especially under the mercurial Trump.

If the past 25 years have taught three generations of Kims anything, though, it is that its potential adversaries are incurably divided, both internally and among themselves, and will therefore tolerate threats and blackmail — even actual occasional conventional military attacks on South Korea — rather than forge the collective effort it would take to end the game once and for all.

• Charles Lane is a Washington Post editorial writer specializing in economic and fiscal policy, a weekly columnist, and a contributor to the PostPartisan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan) blog.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/north-korea-has-one-big-advantage-over-its-adversaries/2017/07/06/1a63d32c-625a-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/north-korea-has-one-big-advantage-over-its-adversaries/2017/07/06/1a63d32c-625a-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

With tensions high, Pentagon flies bombers over Korean Peninsula in show of force

A pair of American B-1B bombers flew alongside fighter jets from South Korea and Japan
four days after North Korea launched its first-ever intercontinental ballistic missile.

By DAN LAMOTHE and THOMAS GIBBONS-NEFF | 1:42AM EDT - Saturday, July 08, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170708b1bl_B1BLancer_zps04nbh5dg.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp-content/uploads/sites/33/2017/07/b-1b.jpg)
A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer of the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron sits at Andersen Air Force Base on Friday in Guam before a bilateral mission
with South Korean and Japanese jets. — Photograph: Airman 1st Class Jacob Skovo/United States Air Force.

THE PENTAGON flew two B-1B bombers over the Korean Peninsula on Friday in a show of force, carrying out a 10-hour, multi-part mission alongside fighter jets from South Korea and Japan four days after North Korea launched its first-ever intercontinental ballistic missile.

U.S. Pacific Command disclosed the operation late on Friday (http://www.pacaf.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1241173/us-b-1b-bomber-flights-demonstrate-ironclad-commitment-to-south-korea-japan), saying the mission was a demonstration of the “ironclad” American commitment to allies in the region. The Air Force launched the planes from Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, flying west across the Pacific before joining South Korean F-15s and dropping inert bombs over Pilsung Range, a training area in the northeastern corner of South Korea.

“U.S. bombers and Republic of Korea fighters are just two of many lethal military options at our disposal,” said Lieutenant General Thomas Bergeson, the deputy commander of U.S. Forces Korea. “This mission clearly demonstrates the U.S.-ROK alliance remains prepared to use the full range of capabilities to defend and to preserve the security of the Korean Peninsula and region.”

The U.S. bombers flew back to Guam alongside Japanese F-2 fighters over the East China Sea. The U.S. military continues to train with Japanese forces to make sure they are collectively ready to defend against an attack, said Lieutenant General Jerry P. Martinez, the commander of U.S. Forces Japan.

It's the latest show of force in the region by the United States and its allies since Tuesday's test of an ICBM by North Korea. On Wednesday, U.S. and South Korean forces demonstrated their ability to fire ground launched cruise missiles with the U.S. Army's Tactical Missile System and the South Korean Hyunmoo Missile II. Both missiles have a similar range and can hit targets more than 180 miles from their launch site. In addition to showcasing their ability to fire into North Korea, Reuters reported on Friday (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-defenses-excl-idUSKBN19S2XQ) that U.S. forces also have plans to test a controversial missile defense system, called THAAD that has recently been deployed to the peninsula.

North Korea's launch of a two-stage ICBM, called the Hwasong-14, appears to have caught the United States off-guard. Following the missile's launch, the Pentagon first classified it as an intermediate-range missile before admitting that the weapon's 3,400-mile range qualified it as an ICBM. Despite condemnation from the international community and waves of new sanctions, North Korea has steadily advanced its missile program in recent months, leaving the White House with few options to deal with the rogue state.

Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told reporters on Thursday that America's self-restraint “has prevented war in the face of provocations” and that economic and diplomatic efforts are ongoing with U.S. allies and China in an attempt to de-escalate the situation. “But obviously, any kind of effort by North Korea to start a war would lead to severe consequences,” Mattis said.

Though North Korea's ability to launch an ICBM is groundbreaking, the reclusive state face series of technical hurdles before its program has enough material for more nuclear tests and the ability to strike deep into the United States, experts say. The test, however, will likely change U.S. calculus when it comes to striking Pyongyang, as any military plan will have to weigh the possibility of a nuclear attack against the U.S. homeland.

• Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint).

• Thomas Gibbons-Neff is a staff writer at The Washington Post and a former Marine infantryman.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related stories:

• U.S. missile defense and its spotty history have a new challenge in North Korean ICBMs (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/05/u-s-missile-defense-and-its-spotty-history-have-a-new-challenge-in-north-korean-icbms)

• U.S. Army and South Korean military respond to North Korea's launch with missile exercise (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/04/u-s-army-and-south-korean-military-respond-to-north-koreas-launch-with-missile-exercise)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/08/with-tensions-high-pentagon-flies-bombers-over-korean-peninsula-in-show-of-force (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/07/08/with-tensions-high-pentagon-flies-bombers-over-korean-peninsula-in-show-of-force)

from The Washington Post....

How ‘isolated’ North Korea managed to build an ICBM that could reach Alaska

The country might seem isolated, but it imported expertise from Russia and has had relationships with Iran and Pakistan.

By AMANDA ERICKSON | 5:01AM EDT - Saturday, July 08, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170708pp_PortraitsPyongyang_zpsptzssd86.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/12/16/Foreign/Images/AFP_IN403-4720.jpg&w=1484)
Pedestrians make their way past the portraits of late North Korean leaders Kim Il-sung, left, and Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang.
— Photograph: Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse.

NORTH KOREA is a country in isolation, a place where most citizens don't have access to the Internet or the means to travel abroad. In 2010, The New York Times described the country (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/26/world/asia/26pyongyang.html) as a “hermit kingdom, so poor that there is almost no supply of concrete, bricks or window glass. People suffer shortages of rice, gasoline and even underwear.”

And yet. It's been able to expand its weapons technology at an astounding rate. Earlier this week, it test launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that experts say could have reached Alaska. How has the North been able to make big weaponry advances that experts considered a couple of years away at best?

The answer: North Korea has been developing its nuclear weapon systems expertise for decades. It boasts a cadre of well-trained scientists and engineers and a vast, international financial network that's both supplied the necessary raw materials and funded a billion-dollar weapons development program. And it doesn't hurt that Kim Jung Un has made the nuclear weapons program a top priority, orienting his entire country toward that goal.

“When you have a strategic line, a single-minded focus on nuclear and economic development, and you're able to politically mobilize and entire state infrastructure to that end, it provides a lot of potential momentum,” says Scott A. Snyder, a North Korea expert and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (https://www.cfr.org/experts/scott-snyder). “That's what Kim Jung Un has done.”

North Korea launched its missile development program in 1980. At first, their strategy was to buy up old Soviet missiles from third parties like Egypt and Syria, explains John Schilling, a North Korea expert an aerospace engineer who contributes to 38 North (https://www.38north.org/tag/john-schilling), a website devoted to events concerning North Korea. Once the North Korean engineers had the old missiles, they worked to reverse-engineer them so that they could produce their own copies.

The country imported experience too, Schilling says. As the Soviet Union neared collapse, North Korea hired Russian engineers who weren't being paid at home. They brought them to Pyongyang to both work directly on North Korean programs, and to train North Koreans.

North Korea also had relationships with Iran and Pakistan, Schilling says. “Initially, these seem to have been one-way affairs — North Korea sold Iran missiles to use in their war with Iraq, and Pakistan (or at least A.Q. Khan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pakistans-nuclear-bomb-maker-says-north-korea-paid-bribes-for-know-how/2010/11/12/gIQAZ1kH1H_story.html)) sold nuclear technology to North Korea,” he wrote in an email. “But as all three nations developed their skills, this turned into more of an equal partnership with information and technology flowing between all three nations.” (Abdul Qadeer Khan is the founder of Pakistan's uranium-enrichment program and has been accused of aiding the proliferation of nuclear weapons in other countries.)

At first, these efforts led to some trial and a lot of error. Not so anymore. Today, the regime is “much more efficient and effective” at producing weapons in-house, says Ken Gause, a North Korea expert at the Center for Naval Analyses (https://www.cna.org/centers/cna/strategic-studies/international-affairs). “They're not making the same mistakes over and over again.”

Indeed, Schilling says that they're mostly able to build their rockets in-house. “They do still need to import some specialized parts and components, particularly electronics, but this is done mostly on a black- or grey-market basis,” he writes. And it's not hard. “It doesn't need to be done on a large scale, and it doesn't need anyone else's active collaboration, so it would be very difficult to stop,” he says.

The country's speedy weapons development in the past few years, Snyder says, can be attributed to Kim Jung Un.

Kim Jung Il, Un's father, initially developed the nuclear weapons program. But it wasn't an overriding priority, Snyder says, and it moved at a “plodding pace.” When Un assumed power, Snyder says he “stepped on the gas peddle,” making missile development his top priority. That's in part a political calculation — Un was young when he took over the country, and untested. The program was a source of domestic legitimization. It also helped Un counter the perception that North Korea is vulnerable internationally, a weak state surrounded by strong states.

Un sees an ability to strike with nuclear weapons as the key to his legitimacy. All of which makes slowing the program down at this point a nearly impossible aim. “If North Korea wants a nuclear program, North Korea is gonna get one,” Gause said. “And we're gonna have to live with it.”

Of course, there are still some hurdles the country needs to overcome.

Right now, their strongest warhead detonated at about 20 kilotons, similar to Nagasaki. Reaching the abilities of an American missile of warhead (which yield 100 — 475 kilotons) will require “fundamentally new designs,” Schilling says. That's still a couple of years away he predicts.

The country has also so far failed to show that it can fit a nuclear warhead into a missile. But that doesn't bring Schilling much comfort.

“Every nation with North Korea's level of demonstrated expertise in nuclear weapons development has at least been able to fit their low-yield nuclear warheads into missiles,” he writes. North Korea has published mock-ups of how they would do it, and Schilling calls them “plausible.” He also notes that very few countries have actually demonstrated that their missiles and warheads work together.

Even the United States and Russia have done it only a handful of times. “Mostly, nations test their missiles and warheads separately and trust that they will work when brought together,” he wrote. “If the North Koreans felt compelled to put one of their warheads on one of their missiles and fire it tomorrow, odds are it would work.”

• Amanda Erickson writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. Previously, she worked as an editor for Outlook (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook) and PostEverything (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/07/how-isolated-north-korea-managed-to-build-an-icbm-that-could-reach-alaska (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/07/how-isolated-north-korea-managed-to-build-an-icbm-that-could-reach-alaska)

from The Washington Post....

The secret to Kim's success?
Some experts see Russian echoes in North Korea's missile advances.

Weapons experts noted striking similarities between North Korea's new intercontinental weapon's
propulsion system and a 1960s-era Soviet system. And although North Korea is known to have
obtained other Soviet missile designs in the past, the new revelations suggest the possibility
of a transfer of weapons secrets that has gone undetected until now.

By JOBY WARRICK | 5:58PM EDT - Saturday, July 08, 2017

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170708h14icbm_Hwasong14IntercontinentalBallisticMissile_zpsffhmbufi.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/08/Interactivity/Images/crop_90North_Korea_Land_of_Lousy_Options_26358-81030.jpg)
This photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what was said to be the launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM) in North Korea's northwest. — Photograph: Korean Central News AgencyAssociated Press.

FOUR MONTHS before its July 4th missile test, North Korea offered the world a rare technical preview of its latest missile engine, one said to be capable of lobbing nuclear warheads at U.S. cities. A video on state-run TV depicted a machine with thickets of tubes and vents, and a shape that struck some U.S. experts as familiar — in a distinctly Soviet way.

“It shocked me,” said Michael Elleman, one weapons expert who noticed jarring similarities between the engine tested by North Korea in March and one he frequently encountered in Russia at the end of the Cold War. “It seemed to come out of nowhere.”

After intensive study, Elleman, a former consultant at the Pentagon, and other specialists would report that they had detected multiple design features in the new North Korean missile engine that echo those of a 1960s-era Soviet workhorse called the RD-250.

There is no record of Pyongyang's obtaining blueprints for the Russian missile engine, and experts disagree on whether it ever did so. But the discovery of similarities has focused new attention on a question that has dogged U.S. analysts for at least the past two years: How has North Korea managed to make surprisingly rapid gains in its missile program, despite economic sanctions and a near-universal ban on exports of military technology to the impoverished communist state?

Many weapons experts say North Korea's startling display of missile prowess is a reflection of the country's growing mastery of weapons technology, as well as its leader's fierce determination to take the country into the nuclear club. But others see continuing evidence of an outsize role by foreigners, including Russian scientists who provided designs and know-how years ago, and the Chinese vendors who supply the electronics needed for modern missile-guidance systems.

Whether outsiders played a decisive role in Tuesday's firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile is not publicly known. But the evidence from the televised engine test in March is tantalizing, and also disturbing, analysts say. While North Korea is known to have obtained other Soviet missile designs in the past, the new revelations suggest the possibility of a transfer of weapons secrets that has gone undetected until now.

“It would mean that North Korea had a wider procurement network in the former Soviet Union than we had thought,” said Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who oversaw the dismantling of Soviet-era missiles in Russia and Ukraine two decades ago. “My first question would be, ‘What else have they got?’”

A foundation of knowledge

It was, without a doubt, one of the strangest mass arrests in the history of Moscow's Sheremetyevo-2 Airport: On October 15th, 1992, police detained 60 Russian missile scientists, along with their families, as they prepared to board a plane for North Korea.

Under questioning, the scientists confessed that they had been hired as a group to help the North Koreans build a modern missile fleet. In those early days after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was little work for Russia's elite weapons scientists and little pay to help them feed and clothe their families.

“We wanted to make money and come back,” one of the scientists explained at the time to a Russian journalist.

Scores of other scientists did make the journey in the 1990s, taking with them decades of experience, as well as parts and blueprints. It was the beginning of a Russian-influenced renaissance in North Korea's missile arsenal, which until then consisted mostly of outdated, early-generation Scuds, some of them purchased on the black market. About the same time, North Korea also obtained sensitive nuclear technology from Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

The Russian government has insisted it had nothing to do with the transfer of missile secrets to North Korea. But Soviet designs became the templates for a series of intermediate-range ballistic missiles built and tested by North Korea over the next two decades, with extra features and capabilities added by a new generation of engineers recruited from the country's best schools.

Still, the program struggled, with many missiles blowing up on the launchpad, said Gaurav Kampani, a University of Tulsa international security expert and fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

“North Korea's ballistic missiles, especially its long-range missile project, were often considered a joke because of an unusual number of test failures,” Kampani said.

Serious advances

The jokes all but stopped after North Korea achieved a series of technical breakthroughs in surprisingly rapid succession. Just in the past four years, Pyongyang has launched satellites into orbit and successfully tested one missile that can be fired from a submarine, as well as another that uses solid fuel, a significant military advance because it allows for more mobility and a much faster launch.

On Tuesday, its Hwasong-14 missile became the first in North Korean history capable of traveling more than 3,400 miles, the minimum distance needed to be classified as an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The missile is believed to be a two-stage version of the Hwasong-12, which carries the same engine North Korea put on public display in March.

In nearly every case, the technical foundations of the new missiles can be traced to know-how acquired from Russians and others over many years. Yet, the advances of the past years suggest that North Korea's engineers are now managing quite well on their own.

“The consensus has been that North Korea’s program — missile as well as nuclear — is mostly indigenous,” said Laura Holgate, a top adviser on nonproliferation to the Obama administration who stepped down in January as head of the U.S. mission to the United Nations in Vienna. “They continue to seek to import commercial dual-use technologies for their weapons programs, but the design and innovation is homegrown.”

The many failures in the past were simply part of the learning curve for a country with a demonstrated ability to benefit from its mistakes, said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington think tank.

“Armed with the acquisition of many goods from abroad, North Korea appears to have devoted considerable resources to making the missiles domestically and, more importantly, figuring out how to launch them successfully,” Albright said. “With regards to missiles, practice makes perfect.”

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170708fp_FireworksPyongyang_zps8pjd6tae.jpg~original) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/08/National-Security/Images/APTOPIX_North_Korea_Koreas_Tension_16143-7773d.jpg)
Soldiers watch fireworks in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate the test launch of North Korea's first intercontinental ballistic
missile two days earlier. — Photograph: Jon Chol Jin/Associated Press.

Determined to succeed

Yet it is also clear that North Korea's engineers are continuing to benefit from designs bequeathed to them years ago. Before Pyongyang's new missile engine surfaced, U.S. officials fretted about the Hwasong-10, a mobile, intermediate-range ballistic missile that was successfully tested last June. The missile, which is capable of reaching targets as far as Guam, 2,000 miles away, has been shown in independent analyses to be a modified version of a Russian missile commonly known as the R-27 Zyb. North Korea is believed to have obtained the Russian blueprint in the 1990s and to have spent years working on prototypes, current and former U.S. officials said.

Elleman, the former Pentagon missile expert, believes that North Korea's newest missile engine has a similar past. The designs were most likely obtained years ago, through rogue scientists or on the black market, only to surface recently as part of a newly energized missile program.

Elleman is preparing to publish an analysis comparing the engine used in the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 with the Soviet-era RD-250, using photos that highlight nearly identical features, including cooling tubes, exhaust nozzles and the four auxiliary engines that steer the rocket.

“They've had these designs for a long time, and they've probably been doing exercises around these engines for 15 years,” he said. “All that work was done, and all [that] was left to do was the ground testing and flight testing with these different designs. It is what has allowed them to rapidly build up and try all these things over the past few years.”

The Kim Jong Un factor

The key new element was most likely North Korean leader Kim Jong Un himself, who accelerated the pace of the country's nuclear and missile development soon after taking power. “They are serious about trying to create a capability that could threaten the United States,” Elleman said.

The lingering Soviet legacy partly explains why North Korean technology tends to be decades behind that of the United States and other modern military powers, said David S. Cohen, a former deputy director of the CIA who had advised the Obama administration on North Korea's weapons advances.

“The missiles they're shooting now have some new engineering, but it's all based on old Soviet models,” Cohen said.

Unable to purchase advanced technology on the open market, North Korea also remains dependent on smugglers and black-marketeers to obtain some of the parts it needs, particularly electronics, Cohen said.

But he cautioned against underestimating a North Korean leadership that repeatedly displayed ingenuity in working with old designs and systems as well as a determination to succeed in the face of international isolation and censure.

“It is a mistake to think that this is really a hermit kingdom that is cut off and doesn't have access to the Internet,” Cohen said. “They have a lot of disadvantages, but the biggest part of the government economy is their nuclear and missiles program, so the smartest folks they have are directed to do this work.

“My fear,” he added, “ is that people underestimate them.”

• Joby Warrick joined The Washington Post's national staff in 1996. He has covered national security, the environment and the Middle East and currently writes about terrorism. He is the author of two books, including 2015's “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/0385538219), which was awarded a 2016 Pulitzer Prize for non-fiction.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Kim Jong Un's rockets are getting an important boost — from China (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kim-jong-uns-rockets-are-getting-an-important-boost--from-china/2017/04/12/4893b0be-1a43-11e7-bcc2-7d1a0973e7b2_story.html)

• Experts: North Korea's missile was a ‘real ICBM’ — and a grave milestone (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-north-koreas-missile-was-a-real-icbm--and-a-grave-milestone/2017/07/04/554bb81e-60da-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html)

• The message behind the murder: North Korea's assassination sheds light on chemical weapons arsenal (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-message-behind-the-murder-north-koreas-assassination-sheds-light-on-chemical-weapons-arsenal/2017/07/06/998b1c38-5d54-11e7-9fc6-c7ef4bc58d13_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-secret-to-kims-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-koreas-missiles-advances/2017/07/08/5d4f5fca-6364-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-secret-to-kims-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-koreas-missiles-advances/2017/07/08/5d4f5fca-6364-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

NORTH KOREA

Kim Jong Un sends North Korean slaves to Russia to earn cash for regime
By Andrew O'Reilly Published July 14, 2017 Fox News

NOW PLAYING
Kim Jong-un: Fast facts about North Korea's leader
Brutal North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is shipping tens of thousands of impoverished citizens to Russia for the hard currency his cash-strapped regime desperately needs, Fox News has found.

Alarmed human rights groups say the North Korea workers in Russia are little more than slaves, subjected to everything from cruel and violent acts to ruthless exploitation at the hands of corrupt officials, while being forced to turn over large chunks of their pay to the North Korean government.

More on this...
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Missile Wars: Where North Korea stands after ICBM launch
A report issued earlier this year by the Seoul-based Data Base Center for North Korean Human Rights estimates that about 50,000 North Korean laborers are working low-paying jobs in Russia. They send at least $120 million every year to the regime in Pyongyang.

“The North Korean government maintains strict controls over their workers’ profits, in some cases probably taking 90 percent of their wages,” Scott Synder, director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council of Foreign Relations, told Fox News. “This is an issue that has been going on under the radar for a long time.”

International sanctions have crippled North Korea’s economy. The country produces few goods suitable for export. Kim needs money any way he can get it.

North Koreans helped construct a new soccer stadium in St. Petersburg. They also helped build a luxury apartment complex in Moscow.

The North Korean workers toil under terribly harsh conditions. A North Korean working on the soccer project was killed. Two North Korean laborers were found dead in June at a decrepit hostel near the Moscow apartment building site.

For years North Korean laborers have worked at remote Russian logging camps, which has brought to mind the brutal Soviet-era Gulag system.

Even so many North Korean laborers are willing to pay bribes to be sent to Russia given the dire economic and political situation at home.

The U.S. State Department issued a report on human trafficking last month that concluded that North Korean workers in Russia had been subjected to “exploitative labor conditions characteristic of trafficking cases such as withholding of identity documents, non-payment for services rendered, physical abuse, lack of safety measures, or extremely poor living conditions.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has proposed new sanctions to deal with the problem.

“Secretary Tillerson has called on all countries to fully implement all U.N. Security Council resolutions, sever or downgrade diplomatic relations, and isolate [North Korea] financially, including through new sanctions, severing trade relationships, expelling guest workers, and banning imports from North Korean,” a State Department official told Fox News.

One reason for making such resolutions international is because North Korean laborers work in other countries besides Russia. China uses large numbers of them, and Qatar has North Korean laborers helping build its World Cup stadium.

Among the exploited North Korean workers are painters sent to the Pacific Ocean port of Vladivostok. Still, they have it little better than the North Koreans working in the Russian logging camps.

The boss of a decorating company in Vladivostok told the New York Times recently that minders from the Workers’ Party of Korea, the ruling party in Pyongyang, will confiscate half or more of a laborer’s monthly salary. He said a construction crew boss will take another 20 percent.

Related Image
Local residents attend the departure ceremony of the Mangyongbyong cruise ship in the port area of North Korean Special Economic Zone of Rason City, northeast of Pyongyang August 30, 2011. North Korea launched itself into the glitzy world of cruise tourism when about 130 passengers set sail from the rundown port of Rajin, near the China-Russia border, for the scenic Mount Kumgang resort near the South Korean border. Isolated North Korea's state tourism bureau has teamed up with a Chinese travel company to run the country's first ever cruise aboard an ageing 9,700 tonne vessel which once plied the waters off the east coast of the divided peninsula shuttling passengers between North Korea and Japan. Picture taken August 30, 2011. REUTERS/Carlos Barria (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS TRAVEL SOCIETY) - RTR2QSOBExpand / Collapse
Local residents at the port area of the North Korean Special Economic Zone of Rason City, near the China-Russia border. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria)
The corruption has apparently only increased in the last 10 years as the monthly pay rate for the laborers has increased from about 17,000 rubles, around $283, to 50,000 rubles, or about $841, according to the report.

“They don’t take holidays. They eat, work and sleep and nothing else. And they don’t sleep much,” the Russian boss said. “They are basically in the situation of slaves.”

He was reluctant to give the Times his name for fear the laborers would be punished by Workers’ Party officials.

Experts question why the human trafficking of North Koreans to Russia hasn’t drawn as much attention on the international stage as sex trafficking and other forms of human trafficking.

“It’s very much analogous to any other type of trafficking situation across the world,” Snyder said. “Sex trafficking is done by shadowy, illegal organizations, but here we’re talking about state entities carrying out the trafficking. This really speaks to the nature of these regimes.
Fox

Excellent news....yet another country will shortly have a nuclear deterrent against American aggression, just like America has a nuclear deterrent against aggression from other countries.

from The Washington Post....

North Korea could cross ICBM threshold next year,
U.S. officials warn in new assessment

“Alarming” advances in its missile program are forcing analysts to dramatically alter their forecasts.

By ELLEN NAKASHIMA, ANNA FIFIELD and JOBY WARRICK | 1:38PM EDT - Tuesday, July 25, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_950w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/24/National-Security/Images/North_Korea_The_Nuclear_Pricetag_17450-5ca5c.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/24/National-Security/Images/North_Korea_The_Nuclear_Pricetag_17450-5ca5c.jpg)

NORTH KOREA will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year, U.S. officials have concluded in a confidential assessment that dramatically shrinks the timeline for when Pyongyang could strike North American cities with atomic weapons.

The new assessment by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which shaves a full two years off the consensus forecast for North Korea's ICBM program, was prompted by recent missile tests (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-north-koreas-missile-was-a-real-icbm--and-a-grave-milestone/2017/07/04/554bb81e-60da-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html) showing surprising technical advances by the country's weapons scientists, at a pace beyond what many analysts believed was possible for the isolated communist regime.

The U.S. projection closely mirrors revised predictions by South Korean intelligence officials, who also have watched with growing alarm as North Korea has appeared to master key technologies needed to loft a warhead toward targets thousands of miles away.

The finding further increases the pressure on U.S. and Asian leaders to halt North Korea's progress before Pyongyang can threaten the world with nuclear-tipped missiles. President Trump, during his visit to Poland this month, vowed to confront North Korea “very strongly” to stop its missile advances.

The DIA has concluded that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will be able to produce a “reliable, nuclear-capable ICBM” program sometime in 2018, meaning that by next year the program will have advanced from prototype to assembly line, according to officials familiar with the document. Already, the aggressive testing regime put in place in recent months has allowed North Korea to validate its basic designs, putting it within a few months of starting industrial production, the officials said.

The DIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to address any classified assessments.

But Scott Bray, ODNI's national intelligence manager for East Asia, said in a statement: “North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental range ballistic missile — which was not a surprise to the intelligence community — is one of the milestones that we have expected would help refine our timeline and judgments on the threats that Kim Jong Un poses to the continental United States. This test, and its impact on our assessments, highlight the threat that North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose to the United States, to our allies in the region, and to the whole world. The intelligence community is closely monitoring the expanding threat from North Korea.”

One of the few remaining technical hurdles is the challenge of atmospheric “re-entry” — the ability to design a missile that can pass through the upper atmosphere without damage to the warhead. Long regarded as a formidable technological barrier for impoverished North Korea, that milestone could be reached, beginning with new tests expected to take place within days, U.S. analysts said. U.S. officials have detected signs that North Korea is making final preparations for testing a new re-entry vehicle, perhaps as early as Thursday, a North Korean national holiday marking the end of the Korean War.

“They're on track to do that, essentially this week,” said a U.S. official familiar with the intelligence report who, like others, insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive military assessments.

North Korea has not yet demonstrated an ability to build a miniaturized nuclear warhead that could be carried by one of its missiles. Officials there last year displayed a sphere-shaped device the regime described as a miniaturized warhead, but there has been no public confirmation that this milestone has been achieved. Preparations reportedly have been underway for several months for what would be the country's sixth underground atomic test. The last one, in September, had an estimated yield of 20 to 30 kilotons, more than double the explosive force of any previous test.

North Korea startled the world with its successful July 4th test of a missile capable of striking parts of Alaska — the first such missile with proven intercontinental range. The launch of a two-stage “Hwasong-14” missile was the latest in a series of tests in recent months that have revealed startlingly rapid advances across a number of technical fields, from mastery of solid-fuel technology to the launch of the first submarine-based missile, current and former intelligence officials and weapons experts said.

“There has been alarming progress,” said Joseph DeTrani, the former mission manager for North Korea for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and a former special envoy for negotiations with Pyongyang. “In the last year they have gained capabilities that they didn't have, including ones that we thought they would not have been able to obtain for years.”

The July 4th missile test also caught South Korea's intelligence service off guard, prompting a hasty revision of forecasts, according to South Korean lawmakers who have received closed-door briefings. “The speed of North Korea's ICBM missile development is faster than the South Korean Defense Ministry expected,” said lawmaker Lee Cheol-hee of the left-wing Minjoo party, who attended an intelligence committee briefing after the July 4th test.

The South Korean government, which is actively trying to engage the regime in Pyongyang, has declined to call the most recent test a success. North Korea still has not proved it has mastered some of the steps needed to build a reliable ICBM, most notably the re-entry vehicle, Lee said.

Still, officials across the political spectrum acknowledged that North Korea is rapidly gaining ground. “Now they are approaching the final stage of being a nuclear power and the owner of an ICBM,” said Cha Du-hyeogn, who served as an adviser to conservative former president Lee Myung-bak.

U.S. spy agencies have detected multiple signals that North Korea is preparing to test a re-entry vehicle. Analysts believe that the July 4th test was intended to demonstrate range — the ability of its new two-stage ICBM prototype to reach altitude and distance milestones — while the new launch will seek to validate engineering features designed to protect the warhead as it passes through the upper atmosphere and then is delivered to a distant target.

The latest designs appear to cobble together older systems — including portions of a missile frame used to launch satellites into orbit — with a more advanced engine that North Korea began testing earlier this year. Much of the technology is based on old Soviet-era designs that have been reworked by what U.S. experts describe as an increasingly capable cadre of homegrown engineers, goaded along by a leadership that has pursued nuclear weapons and delivery systems with single-minded zeal.

Kim vowed in January to successfully test a nuclear-capable ICBM in 2017, achieving a long-sought goal that North Koreans believe will serve as the ultimate deterrent against threats to the communist regime's survival. At the time, the U.S. intelligence community's formal assessment still held that a credible ICBM threat would not emerge until 2020 at the earliest.

“North Korea's timeline moved faster than we expected,” said the U.S. official familiar with the new DIA assessment. “We weren't expecting an ICBM test in July.”

Former U.S. officials and weapons experts said a successful test of a nuclear-capable ICBM would dramatically raise the stakes in the North Korean crisis, putting new pressure on North Korea's neighbors and increasing the risk of miscalculation. “The danger is that decision time and warning is greatly reduced when North Korea has the weapons, and that escalation can happen quickly,” said Jon Wolfsthal, senior director for arms control and non-proliferation with the Obama administration's National Security Council.

The specter of a nuclear-armed, ICBM-capable Kim “takes the risk to a new level but does not change the nature of the threat we have faced for some time,” Wolfsthal said. “We have to deter North Korea from ever using any nuclear weapons and make clear that any move to use these weapons is suicide.”

• Ellen Nakashima is a national security reporter for The Washington Post. She focuses on issues relating to intelligence, technology and civil liberties.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

• Joby Warrick joined The Washington Post's national staff in 1996. He has covered national security, the environment and the Middle East and currently writes about terrorism. He is the author of two books, including 2015's “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/0385538219) which was awarded a 2016 Pulitzer Prize for non-fiction.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Report: North Korea can strike U.S. with nuclear ICBM by next year (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/697aa258-61b8-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_video.html)

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• GRAPHIC: North Korea showed off a lot of missiles. What might be their targets? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/north-korea-targets)

• The message behind the murder: North Korea's assassination sheds light on chemical weapons arsenal (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-message-behind-the-murder-north-koreas-assassination-sheds-light-on-chemical-weapons-arsenal/2017/07/06/998b1c38-5d54-11e7-9fc6-c7ef4bc58d13_story.html)

• Twenty-five million reasons the U.S. hasn't struck North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/twenty-five-million-reasons-the-us-cant-strike-north-korea/2017/04/21/47df9fea-2513-11e7-928e-3624539060e8_story.html)

• Kim Jong Un's rockets are getting an important boost — from China (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kim-jong-uns-rockets-are-getting-an-important-boost--from-china/2017/04/12/4893b0be-1a43-11e7-bcc2-7d1a0973e7b2_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-could-cross-icbm-threshold-next-year-us-officials-warn-in-new-assessment/2017/07/25/4107dc4a-70af-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-could-cross-icbm-threshold-next-year-us-officials-warn-in-new-assessment/2017/07/25/4107dc4a-70af-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea fires another missile, its latest step
toward putting the U.S. within reach

The projectile flew for 45 minutes, indicating it was another intercontinental ballistic missile.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 3:17PM EDT - Friday, July 28, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_915w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/26/Foreign/Images/Hawaii_North_Korea_59707-57a23.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/26/Foreign/Images/Hawaii_North_Korea_59707-57a23.jpg)
In this July 4th, 2017, file photo distributed by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, second from right,
inspects the preparation of the launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile in North Korea's northwest.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Associated Press.

TOKYO — North Korea has taken another bold step toward achieving its stated goal of being able to send a nuclear weapon to the U.S. mainland, firing an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Friday that highlights the regime's rapid technological progress.

The missile flew almost straight up for 45 minutes and reached a height of about 2,300 miles before crashing into the sea off Japan. But if it had been launched on a normal trajectory, the missile could theoretically have reached Chicago and perhaps even New York, experts said.

This latest provocation compounds the problem facing the Trump administration and North Korea's neighbors: How to stop the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un from making progress with its nuclear weapons program.

“Kim Jong Un does seem hellbent on acquiring the capability to reach the United States with nuclear weapons,” said Sharon Squassoni (https://www.csis.org/people/sharon-squassoni), director of the Proliferation Prevention Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The Pentagon and South Korea's joint chiefs of staff both said they had detected the launch, which occurred on Friday at about 11:11 p.m. North Korea time. The late-night launch was unusual, as North Korea usually fires missiles shortly after dawn.

“We assess that this missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile, as had been expected,” said Navy Captain Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command “determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America,” Davis said.

American officials assessed that the missile flew on a “lofted” trajectory to reach an apogee of 2,300 miles, before landing about 620 miles from its launch site in Chagang province in northwestern North Korea, near the border with China.

This is something that North Korea has been doing to test its missiles without firing them over Japan, an even more incendiary move.

The missile landed within Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan, chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference convened early Saturday morning. Analysts said it landed off the coast of the northern island of Hokkaido.

“We cannot tolerate North Korea's repeated provocations like this,” Suga said. “We have made a strong protest to North Korea and condemned this act in the strongest terms.”

If the missile had been fired on a trajectory designed to maximize its range, it could have flown 6,500 miles (http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/new-north-korean-icbm), said David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. This is without taking into account the rotation of the Earth, which increases the range of missiles fired to the east.

“Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago appear to be well within range of this missile, and that Boston and New York may be just within range,” Wright said. “Washington may still be just out of range,” he added.

These are only estimates, and experts do not know what kind of payload the missile was carrying, a factor that influences range.

But with its rapid succession of tests, North Korea is showing steady and observable technical progress that has alarmed analysts and officials alike.

Friday's test comes just three weeks after North Korea fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile, launched as July 4th dawned in Asia, and becomes the 14th ballistic missile launch this year alone.

That missile, which North Korea called the Hwasong-14 (https://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling070517) (or Mars-14), flew to an altitude of 1,741 miles — seven times as high as the International Space Station — before landing in the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, 577 miles from its launch site. Analysts said that this would put Alaska and Hawaii within range.

Jeffrey Lewis (https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk), head of the East Asia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) in California, said that this latest test was designed to demonstrate that North Korea could hit more of the mainland United States.

“My guess is that they want to show more range,” Lewis said, adding that North Korea was essentially calling the Pentagon's bluff. “We basically dared them to do this. We said, ‘It's not really an ICBM until it can hit Alaska’, and they're, like, ‘Okay’.”

Ten of this year's 14 ballistic missile launches can be considered successful, according to CNS researchers.

The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency has shaved two full years (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-could-cross-icbm-threshold-next-year-us-officials-warn-in-new-assessment/2017/07/25/4107dc4a-70af-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html) off the consensus forecast for North Korea's ICBM program, now estimating that North Korea will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year.

A launch this week — the anniversary of the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War fell on Thursday — had been anticipated. U.S. intelligence agencies had seen signs that North Korea was preparing for another test.

The North Korean leader has repeatedly said he wants a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach the United States, and his defense minister on Wednesday threatened to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States.

“If enemies misunderstand our strategic status and stick to options of staging a pre-emptive nuclear attack against us, we will launch a nuclear attack on America's heart as the most relentless punishment without warning or prior notice,” the minister said at a ceremony to mark the conclusion of the Korean War, which ended in an armistice but which Pyongyang claims it won. The occasion is celebrated annually in North Korea as the “Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War”.

The Pentagon is planning another test of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in Alaska soon. The system is designed to shoot down incoming missiles.

In a surprising apparent shift, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who took office in May vowing to review the U.S. deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea, signaled he would now accept the system.

After an emergency National Security Council meeting held early on Saturday morning, Moon's office said he had directed his staff to consider ways to strengthen deterrence, including through the “additional deployment” of THAAD launchers.

The July 4th test, which violated United Nations resolutions against North Korea, was met with the usual rounds of international condemnation, and the latest provocation is likely to be greeted in the same way.

But the world has not found a way to persuade North Korea to stop.

The United States has been leading the charge for more and more sanctions against North Korea, but Russia and China — both veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — have been reluctant to impose painful measures and are calling instead for a “de-escalation plan” to deal with Pyongyang.

The Trump administration needs to focus on diplomacy as well as sanctions, said Kelsey Davenport (https://www.armscontrol.org/about/kelsey_davenport), director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.

“A deployed North Korean ICBM is not inevitable, but it will be if policymakers in Washington keep putting the cart before the horse and demanding Pyongyang meet onerous preconditions to begin talks,” she said.

The Trump administration, like the Obama administration before it, has said that North Korea must agree to freeze its weapons program before talks can begin.

“Washington's diplomacy deficit is further compounded by the dangerous illusion that sanctions alone will push North Korea to negotiate,” Davenport said, “when the Trump administration and Congress should be focused on signaling support for talks without conditions.”

Squassoni of CSIS agreed.

“We won't know anything about North Korea's intentions unless we engage them seriously and at length,” she said. “The Trump administration needs to commit resources and real expertise to reshaping peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.”

• Thomas Gibbons-Neff in Washington contributed to this report.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• The inevitability of North Korea's nuclear weapons (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/28/the-inevitability-of-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons)

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-fires-another-missile-its-latest-step-toward-putting-the-us-within-reach/2017/07/28/7fc4437a-71fd-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-fires-another-missile-its-latest-step-toward-putting-the-us-within-reach/2017/07/28/7fc4437a-71fd-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html)

from the Los Angeles Times....

Pentagon confirms North Korea tested
second ICBM in less than a month

By W.J. HENNIGAN | 4:05PM PDT - Friday, July 28, 2017

(http://www.trbimg.com/img-59767c3e/turbine/la-1500937274-zqfyrbwwfw-snap-image/675) (http://www.trbimg.com/img-59767c3e/turbine/la-1500937274-zqfyrbwwfw-snap-image)

NORTH KOREA launched its second intercontinental ballistic missile in less than a month on Friday in a test that indicated remarkable technological progress in the isolated nation's weapons development, Pentagon officials said.

Although the Pentagon had yet to make final assessments, independent defense analysts said the two-stage missile appeared the most powerful that Pyongyang has ever tested.

They estimated that it flew about 45 minutes and soared about 1,850 miles into space before it crashed down in the Sea of Japan off the coast of Hokkaido, Japan's northern island.

If that trajectory were flattened out, the analysts said, in theory the missile has the capability for the first time to threaten California and beyond.

President Trump (http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics-government/donald-trump-PEBSL000163-topic.html), who has repeatedly warned of the threat from North Korea and made it a foreign policy priority, issued a statement late on Friday expressing, as in the past, objection to the “reckless and dangerous action.”

“The United States will take all necessary steps to ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in the regions,” he said.

The missile test — issued from a mobile launcher shortly before midnight, and from a rural site not previously used near the Chinese border — appeared designed to show it would be difficult to shoot down.

“A night launch from an unexpected location” was intended to “show us that we don't have a credible pre-emption option,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear weapons analyst with the nonpartisan James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey.

It was North Korea's 18th missile test this year, placing the nation on a record-setting pace.

General Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that “Kim Jong Un and his forces are very good at camouflage concealment and deception.”

He added that Pyongyang has yet to fine-tune its missile guidance and control systems and hasn’t shown the “capacity to strike the United States with any degree of accuracy or reasonable confidence of success.”

The latest missile was launched from Mupyong-ni in Chagang province, in northern North Korea.

Pyongyang first tested a prototype ICBM, dubbed the Hwasong-14, on July 4th in a flight that lasted 37 minutes, raising alarms that it had achieved a breakthrough in its missile program.

The high arc of the trajectory led U.S. analysts to conclude for the first time that Pyongyang had attained the capability of building a missile that could reach Alaska and possibly Hawaii (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-nuclear-attack-preparations-20170725-story.html).

Although Pyongyang has developed and tested nuclear weapons, it is not known to have developed a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop an ICBM or robust enough to survive the missile's fiery re-entry into the atmosphere.

But the string of underground nuclear tests and increasingly sophisticated missile flights have led to concerns it could soon develop the capability to launch a nuclear-armed missile at American military targets in Asia — or even the U.S. mainland.

Given that progress, U.S. intelligence agencies recently cut their projections of how long it would take Pyongyang to build a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland from four years to one year.

The Pentagon vowed on Friday to defend regional allies and noted that the missile did not threaten North America.

“Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of these threats, remains ironclad,” Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said in a statement. “We remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies from any attack or provocation.”

General Joseph Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Admiral Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, telephoned South Korea's top military official, General Lee Sun Jin, and “expressed the ironclad commitment” to the U.S.-Korean alliance, the Pentagon said in a statement.

“The three leaders also discussed military response options,” the statement said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan called a meeting of his country's National Security Council.

“I have received information that North Korea once again conducted a missile firing,” he said. “We will immediately analyze information and do our utmost to protect the safety of the Japanese people.”

The United Nations Security Council has repeatedly slapped sanctions on North Korea since its first nuclear test in 2006. While the measures have cut the country off from much of the world's economy, they have failed to halt its advances in military know-how.

Congress this week overwhelmingly passed legislation that would place additional sanctions on North Korea, as well as Russia and Iran, and limit the president's ability to ease them. The White House has not said if Trump will sign the bill.

• W.J. Hennigan covers the Pentagon and national security issues from the Los Angeles Times' Washington, D.C., bureau. His defense coverage has taken him through five continents and earned him awards from the National Press Club in 2016 and the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation in 2015. Previously, he covered the aerospace and defense industry from Los Angeles, where he was recognized with a California Newspaper Publishers Association award.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Duck and cover 2.0: How North Korea is prompting new efforts to prepare for a nuclear attack (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-nuclear-attack-preparations-20170725-story.html)

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-japan-north-korea-missile-20170728-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-japan-north-korea-missile-20170728-story.html)

from The Washington Post....

EDITORIAL: Sanctions are the best option against
a dangerous North Korea

If the Trump administration works consistently, it could cut off the flow of hard
currency into Pyongyang and make a real impression on the dictatorship.

By EDITORIAL BOARD | 7:14PM EDT - Friday, July 28, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/28/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-07-28T153607Z_908237052_RC1FD6D29F90_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-2351.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/28/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-07-28T153607Z_908237052_RC1FD6D29F90_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-2351.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Reuters.

ONE school of North Korea experts has been arguing for some time that sanctions will never induce the isolated regime of Kim Jong Un to give up its nuclear weapons nor its race to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that could carry them to the United States. A good answer is that while they might be right, sanctions are still the best available option — and unlike others, such as negotiations with the regime, they have never been given a robust try. Fortunately, that may be about to change.

After waiting in vain for China to apply serious pressure to the Pyongyang regime following President Trump's first meeting with Xi Jinping, the administration is readying sanctions against a number of Chinese companies and banks (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/06/29/the-trump-administration-calls-chinas-bluff-on-north-korea) that do business with North Korea, a senior administration official said this week. A sanctions bill on its way through Congress mandates additional steps against North Korean shipping, countries that evade U.N. sanctions and those that employ the slave laborers whom the regime exports to other countries. Still-tougher measures are in a pending Senate bill (https://www.vanhollen.senate.gov/content/van-hollen-toomey-announce-brink-act-new-north-korea-sanctions) developed by Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen (https://www.c-span.org/video/?431250-1/senators-van-hollen-toomey-unveil-north-korean-sanctions-bill).

If the administration aggressively and consistently exploits the new authorities — an open question, given the endless chaos in the White House and gaping personnel holes at the State Department (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/12/those-empty-desks-at-u-s-embassies-and-the-state-department-its-a-big-problem) — it might be able, over time, to cut off a substantial part of the flows of hard currency that last year allowed North Korea to increase its trade by nearly 5 percent and that financed $1.7 billion in imports from China (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/chinese-trade-with-north-korea-jumped-10-point-5-percent-in-the-first-half-of-this-year-according-to-china-customs-data.html) in the first half of 2017.

The problem is a lack of time. Even successful sanctions campaigns, including that which induced Iran to bargain over its nuclear program, can take years to produce results — and the time North Korea may need to acquire the ability to threaten a nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland appears to be rapidly shrinking. The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded the Kim regime could produce a missile that could reach the U.S. homeland (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-could-cross-icbm-threshold-next-year-us-officials-warn-in-new-assessment/2017/07/25/4107dc4a-70af-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html) with an atomic warhead in a year, years faster than previously estimated. On Friday, the regime carried out a new test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-fires-another-missile-its-latest-step-toward-putting-the-us-within-reach/2017/07/28/7fc4437a-71fd-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html) of what appeared to be a long-range ICBM, the second this month (http://abcnews.go.com/International/north-korea-releases-video-fourth-july-missile-launch/story?id=48454515).

Not surprisingly, both the administration and outside experts are debating other options. CIA Director Mike Pompeo recently hinted at a strategy to “separate” (http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/politics/north-korea-threatens-nuclear-strike-us/index.html) the Kim regime from its weapons. If that means regime change, it would require far greater cooperation from a Chinese government that so far has been unwilling to seriously pressure its neighbor. Some analysts suggest the United States should take up a Russian-Chinese proposal (http://time.com/4844476/russia-china-north-korea-us-military) for a freeze on North Korean missile and nuclear tests in exchange for a halt to U.S.-South Korean military exercises. But history shows that any North Korean commitment to a freeze would be temporary and unreliable, while Washington's agreement to the deal could introduce a permanent crack into its alliance with South Korea.

One helpful proposal comes from the State Department's former human rights chief, Tom Malinowski, who wrote in a Politico essay (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/24/how-to-take-down-kim-jong-un-215411) that the United States should ramp up efforts to provide the North Korean people with information, including about the far freer and more prosperous lives of South Koreans. Political change in North Korea forced by its own citizens, he says, is more likely than denuclearization by the current regime. That clear-eyed but ultimately hopeful forecast strikes us as sensible.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• The Washington Post's View: What Trump can do about North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-can-trump-do-about-the-spiking-danger-from-north-korea/2017/07/05/31f8c5a2-61b4-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/sanctions-are-the-best-option-against-a-dangerous-north-korea/2017/07/28/41d6dcf4-72fb-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/sanctions-are-the-best-option-against-a-dangerous-north-korea/2017/07/28/41d6dcf4-72fb-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html)

Hilarious actually. Trump is too busy encouraging blood-sport in The White House to be able to concentrate on North Korea for longer than the time it takes to compose and post an idiot tweet. Before he could say geronimo (that is presuming he can even work out what it means), the North Koreans will have their nuclear deterrent against American aggression, and then it will be too late, 'cause if Trump launches an all-out attack against North Korea, they will kill a few million Americans before they get taken out completely. And if Trump attacks them in the meantime, the NKs will simply open up on South Korea with their artillery and kill hundreds of thousands of South Koreans as well as several thousand Americans before their artillery can be destroyed. The clown/mad-king in The White House has been snookered by Kim Jong-un.

US may get tougher against China trade policies
Published August 02, 2017
FoxNews.com
The Trump administration is signaling it intends to take a harsher stance on trade issues than it has during its first six months.

The U.S. is considering using rarely invoked U.S. trade laws to fend off China’s demands that foreign companies share their technology in return for access to the country’s vast market.

The move is prompted by discontent among U.S. businesses, which have grown frustrated with China’s trade and market access practices, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Those practices have helped position China to become a global leader in emerging technologies, such as microchips and electric cars, the New York Times reported.

The U.S. policy shift also may reflect White House frustration that it hasn’t received the help it hoped for from China in addressing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

But a senior Chinese official said Monday there was no link between North Korea’s nuclear program and China-U.S. trade, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, trade ministers from China and other nations -- including Brazil, Russia and India -- concluded a conference in Shanghai on Wednesday, agreeing to promote international cooperation and oppose "trade and investment protectionism," Reuters reported.

A source familiar with the U.S. discussions said the Trump administration planned to employ Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows Washington to investigate China’s trade practices and, within months, raise tariffs on imports from China, or impose other sanctions.

Section 301 was used frequently in the 1980s to combat Japanese imports of steel, motorcycles and other items, but less frequently after the World Trade Organization was founded in 1995, Reuters reported.

Related Image
Commerce Secretary-designate Wilbur Ross testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2017, at his confirmation before the Senate Commerce Committee. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)Expand / Collapse
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, seen in Washington, Jan. 18, 2017, says the U.S. will use every available tool to combat trade barriers set by China and the European Union. (Associated Press)

The new investigation would focus on China’s alleged “forced technology transfer policies and practices,” the source said, adding that the Trump administration could launch the probe as soon as this week.

One question not yet answered is whether the Trump administration would work with the WTO or seek to impose penalties on China without relying on the international body, the Wall Street Journal reported.

On Monday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, assailing China and the European Union for “formidable nontariff trade barriers” and asserting the U.S. would use “every available tool” to combat those barriers.

This story includes reporting from the Associated Press.

from The Washington Post....

North Korea says it won't give up nuclear weapons
and that entire U.S. mainland is within firing range

North Korea’s foreign minister also dismissed new U.N. sanctions as illegal.

By CAROL MORELLO and ANNE GEARAN | 9:04PM EDT - Monday, August 07, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-08-05/Reuters/2017-08-05T210644Z_1041614517_RC134C8DBE40_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-UN.jpg&w=900) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-08-05/Reuters/2017-08-05T210644Z_1041614517_RC134C8DBE40_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-UN.jpg&w=1484)
A North Korean flag flies at the Permanent Mission of North Korea in Geneva. — Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters.

MANILA — North Korea spurned harsh new U.N. sanctions on Monday and threatened to defend itself with nuclear weapons if necessary, as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson repeated an offer to bargain with the outcast nation under the right circumstances.

There was no sign at a major Asian security conference here that the sanctions hailed by President Trump as a foreign policy achievement would succeed where past efforts have failed in trying to persuade the country to give up its nuclear weapons.

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told diplomats that his country will never negotiate away what he called a rational “strategic option” against the threat of attack from the United States.

“We will, under no circumstances, put the nukes and ballistic rockets” up for negotiation, Ri said in prepared remarks, adding that the entire United States is within range of its missiles.

He dismissed the U.N. Security Council sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/un-imposes-tough-new-sanctions-on-north-korea/2017/08/06/329aa6f6-7a64-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html) approved on Saturday as illegal, appearing to rule out talks that the Trump administration, in a diplomatic partnership with China and Russia, is offering North Korea as a way out of its economic and diplomatic pariah status.

“The best signal that North Korea could send that they're prepared to talk would be to stop these missile launches,” Tillerson told reporters on Monday at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering.

The security conference in the Philippine capital was dominated by the rising threat posed by North Korea's rapid advances in nuclear and ballistic missile technology. Those capabilities are already a threat to neighbors and U.S. allies South Korea and Japan. In two tests last month, North Korea demonstrated that it could hit major population centers in the United States, and the country is now working to perfect the technology to allow those missiles to carry nuclear warheads.

The new economic sanctions were approved amid the discussions here. The penalties are the toughest to date against a country that has been under international sanctions for more than a decade, and they carry the symbolic weight of approval by Pyongyang's closest ally, China. They also approximate a trade embargo by targeting some of North Korea's biggest exports, including coal.

The sanctions can work only if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un concludes that he has too much to lose by hanging on to his weapons. Kim's calculation has been the opposite — that his weapons and the means to deliver them buy him irreplaceable leverage over the United States, his principal adversary.

China is urging Kim to consider negotiations, and also worked alongside the United States to develop the new U.N. sanctions. Days before the unanimous Security Council vote, Tillerson had made a point of saying that the United States does not consider North Korea its enemy and does not seek to invade the country or unseat Kim. Those reassurances were meant to encourage North Korea to meet at the bargaining table.

At the same time, Washington has issued blunt warnings that the United States will use military force if necessary, and North Korea has answered in kind.

In the printed version of his speech, Ri said Pyongyang will use nuclear weapons only against the United States or any other country that might join it in military action against North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/07/a-majority-of-americans-favor-deploying-u-s-troops-if-north-korea-attacks-south-korea-poll-finds).

Ri's address here was closed to the media, so it could not be determined whether he stuck to a script delivered to reporters.

Another direct warning was aimed at the United States in a government statement published by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

“There is no bigger mistake than the United States believing that its land is safe across the ocean,” it said.

North Korea “will make the U.S. pay dearly for all the heinous crimes it commits against the state and people of this country,” the statement said.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/07/Editorial-Opinion/Images/North_Korea_Missile_67796-dd6ec-2400.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/07/Editorial-Opinion/Images/North_Korea_Missile_67796-dd6ec-2400.jpg)
What was said to be the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in North Korea on Friday, July 28th, 2017.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/Associated Press.

Tillerson would not spell out a deadline for North Korea to respond to the diplomatic overture.

“We'll know it when we see it,” he said on Monday.

“We hope again that this ultimately will result in North Korea coming to a conclusion to choose a different pathway, and when the conditions are right that we can sit and have a dialogue around the future of North Korea so that they feel secure and prosper economically,” he told reporters.

Tillerson avoided running into Ri, who attended the related ASEAN Regional Forum. The State Department said he skipped one event where the two men might have met and left another early to attend a scheduled meeting with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

Tillerson and Trump spoke by phone for about an hour on Monday, and Tillerson detailed the results of his discussions in Manila, the White House said.

“United Nations Resolution is the single largest economic sanctions package ever on North Korea,” Trump wrote in a Twitter message (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/893973466508079104) on Saturday. “Over one billion dollars in cost to N.K.”

On Monday, Trump complained that the U.S.-led sanctions vote at the United Nations is not getting enough attention, writing (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/894653195112378368), “The Fake News Media will not talk about the importance of the United Nations Security Council’s 15-0 vote in favor of sanctions on N. Korea!”

North Korea rarely attends, or is even invited to, international forums such as the ASEAN meeting. Ri tried to make the most of it, holding meetings with the top diplomats from China and Russia, two countries that trade with North Korea and employ North Koreans as contract workers. China alone is responsible for 90 percent of North Korea's trade.

Moscow and Beijing have proposed a “freeze for a freeze” approach, in which North Korea would suspend its missile and nuclear testing if the United States and its allies stop conducting joint military exercises in the region. Washington has rejected that.

After meeting with Ri, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on all parties “to show maximum restraint to avoid the projection of military power on the Korean Peninsula and immediately start seeking a political and diplomatic resolution to the problems of the peninsula, including its denuclearization.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he told Ri that North Korea should abide by U.N. prohibitions against missile and nuclear testing. But he also said that sanctions, while needed, “are not the final goal,” and he called for dialogue. Wang urged the United States and South Korea, as well as the North, not to increase tensions, saying the situation already is at a “critical point”.

Chinese state media on Monday acknowledged that North Korea had to be punished for its missile tests, but criticized the United States for its “arrogance”.

The effectiveness of the new sanctions depends on how well China, in particular, decides to enforce them, said Michael J. Green of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who was an Asia export in the George W. Bush administration.

More broadly, Green said, the time for effective diplomacy has almost certainly run out. There is little to no chance that North Korea can be talked out of weapons it considers essential, he said.

“The North Korea strategy for decades has involved both carrots and sticks. The problem is that the carrots are no longer credible,” he said.

• Anne Gearan reported from Washington.

• Carol Morello is the diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post, covering the State Department.

• Anne Gearan is a national politics correspondent for The Washington Post.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: North Korea: U.S. will ‘pay dearly’ after U.N. passes sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/eb8135f8-7b96-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_video.html)

• VIDEO: North Korean defector who made millions for Kim regime on why sanctions don't work (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/905ff77e-6749-11e7-94ab-5b1f0ff459df_video.html)

• VIDEO: Japan calls for further ‘pressure’ on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/70d658e8-7b77-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_video.html)

• North Korea can show it's ready for negotiations by stopping missile launches, Tillerson says (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/china-urges-north-korea-to-be-smart-and-drop-its-missile-tests/2017/08/06/fa2e9bc4-3bff-4877-a190-6acaa2acd179_story.html)

• The Washington Post says: The U.N. has placed more sanctions on North Korea. That's not enough. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-un-has-placed-more-sanctions-on-north-korea-thats-not-enough/2017/08/07/3df1b90c-7ba1-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html)

• What the new sanctions on North Korea mean (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/07/what-the-new-u-n-sanctions-on-north-korea-mean)

• U.N. imposes tough new sanctions on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/un-imposes-new-sanctions-on-north-korea-following-missile-tests/2017/08/05/dc382962-7a29-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html)

• Tillerson to North Korea: ‘We are not your enemy’ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/tillerson-to-north-korea-we-are-not-your-enemy/2017/08/01/d733ac18-15ef-48ff-8ebc-674d705cf34a_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-under-no-circumstances-will-give-up-its-nuclear-weapons/2017/08/07/33b8d319-fbb2-4559-8f7d-25e968913712_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-under-no-circumstances-will-give-up-its-nuclear-weapons/2017/08/07/33b8d319-fbb2-4559-8f7d-25e968913712_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Someone needs to distract Trump with a shiny object

He's totally unequipped to handle North Korea.

By EUGENE ROBINSON | 6:25PM EDT - Thursday, August 10, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-08-10T203022Z_1530187075_RC11CC1CDC60_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-TRUMP-2437.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-08-10T203022Z_1530187075_RC11CC1CDC60_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-TRUMP-2437.jpg)
President Donald J. Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey. — Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters.

THIS is what we dreaded. Some international crisis was bound to flare up, and President Trump would make it worse. Now we can only hope that the mature adults surrounding him are able to cool things down.

Trump probably thought it was oh-so-clever to answer North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's nuclear provocations with a taste of the dictator's own apocalyptic language, threatening “fire and fury like the world has never seen” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-fire-and-fury-trump-revives-fears-about-his-possession-of-nuclear-codes/2017/08/09/8ac8ad0c-7d19-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html). It sounded like a playground taunt, reflecting the president's emotional immaturity. On Thursday, Trump said that maybe those words weren’t “tough enough.” Soon these two nuclear-armed leaders may be trading insults about the size of each other's hands.

The “fire and fury” line was “improvised” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/trump-chose-his-own-words-for-fire-and-fury-remarks/2017/08/09/9b234d76-7d3f-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_story.html), meaning Trump failed to warn anyone about it beforehand — not Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, not Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, not Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, not national security adviser H.R. McMaster, not U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Wish these five officials well, because they stand between us and unthinkable disaster.

It is possible that “fire and fury” was, in Trump's mind, a bit of strategy. Perhaps he wanted to come across as a dangerous madman. If so, he succeeded in unnerving Americans and our allies — but not, apparently, the North Koreans.

Ironies abound. Before Trump's intervention, his administration was actually doing pretty well in orchestrating a global response to North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. Haley managed to get the U.N. Security Council to approve tough new sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/un-imposes-tough-new-sanctions-on-north-korea/2017/08/06/329aa6f6-7a64-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html), which meant she had to win co-operation from China and Russia — a real diplomatic achievement.

Moreover, Trump's bombast may even have occasioned high-fives in Kim's inner circle. Kim has long sought direct talks with the United States as a way of showing the North Korean people his exalted status among world leaders. A back-and-forth exchange of rhetoric fills the bill.

Dealing with this crisis will require patience and realism, both of which Trump totally lacks.

There is no quick solution. If there were, Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Barack Obama would have implemented it long ago. A U.S. military strike could cost millions of lives in South Korea and perhaps many thousands in Japan. Our nation, under Trump, would become an international pariah. We would have the blood of many innocents on our hands.

The reality is that Kim doesn't want to conquer the world — or provoke a U.S. attack that could end his regime. He wants to remain in power. He also dreams of someday reuniting the Korean Peninsula under his own leadership, but that is a much longer-range goal. Right now, his imperative is survival.

By developing nuclear weapons and advanced missile technology, Kim sought to ensure that he never faces the fate of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Having gone to extraordinary lengths to obtain this insurance policy, he is not likely to give it up. Ever.

The Trump administration believes the Chinese government could do more to pressure Kim. It is true that China has the power to destroy the fragile North Korean economy, but Chinese leaders are not willing to confront the consequences of provoking a collapse of central authority in Pyongyang. And the Kim dynasty has shown a willingness to force the North Korean people to endure unspeakable hardship in the pursuit of national goals.

I see no way that Kim is ever going to be persuaded or coerced into giving up his nukes. Maybe he would do so under imminent threat of being deposed. But in any scenario I can imagine, he has more leverage with nuclear weapons than without them. I don't want to live in a world in which a nuclear-tipped North Korean missile can hit Guam or Hawaii or Los Angeles or Chicago, but we may not have a choice.

Deterrence does work, though. It worked throughout the Cold War. It worked during Mao's Cultural Revolution, when China was at least as unhinged as North Korea is today. It works between India and Pakistan.

Trump once said he would be willing to meet with Kim (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/05/01/trump-says-hed-be-honored-to-meet-with-north-korean-dictator). If the president can be kept from making further threats and the present crisis allowed to subside, perhaps we can eventually offer direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang — something Kim dearly wants — with the subject being a verifiable freeze on the North Korean nuclear program. After a freeze is in place for a while, it might be possible to negotiate reductions.

As I said, we need to be patient and realistic. Someone please distract the president with a shiny object for the next few years.

• Eugene Robinson writes a twice-a-week column on politics and culture for The Washington Post, contributes to the PostPartisan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan) blog, and hosts a weekly online chat with readers. In a three-decade career at The Post, Robinson has been city hall reporter, city editor, foreign correspondent in Buenos Aires and London, foreign editor, and assistant managing editor in charge of the paper's Style (https://www.washingtonpost.com/style) section.

__________________________________________________________________________

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• David Ignatius: This is the moment of truth (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/this-is-the-moment-of-truth-on-north-korea/2017/08/08/57b33194-7c83-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-president-totally-lacks-the-ability-to-deal-with-north-korea/2017/08/10/1d51c2e2-7e07-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-president-totally-lacks-the-ability-to-deal-with-north-korea/2017/08/10/1d51c2e2-7e07-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Gaming out the North Korea crisis: How the conflict might escalate

Trump has four options, experts say: Status quo. Tougher sanctions. Talks. War.

By MARC FISHER and DAVID NAKAMURA | 8:35PM EDT - Thursday, August 10, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_950w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/National-Politics/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Nuclear_39302-82da1.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/National-Politics/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Nuclear_39302-82da1.jpg)
A Seoul news program reports on North Korea's threats to strike Guam with missiles. — Photograph: Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press.

A MILITARY CONFRONTATION with North Korea may now be “inevitable,” says Senator Lindsey O. Graham (Republican-South Carolina) The United States is “done talking” (https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/891689755854991361) about North Korea, tweets U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. President Trump threatens “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” then says maybe his language “wasn't tough enough.”

The North Koreans return verbal fire, talking of using “absolute force” to hit the U.S. territory of Guam and even “turn the U.S. mainland into the theater of a nuclear war.”

In this moment of heated, belligerent rhetoric, planners in and out of government are diving into decades of plans and projections, playing out war games, engaging in the macabre semi-science of estimating death tolls and predicting how an adversary might behave. Inside Washington's “what if?” industry, people at think tanks, universities, consultancies and defense businesses have spent four decades playing out scenarios that the Trump administration now faces anew.

The pathways that have been examined fall into four main categories: doing nothing, hitting Kim Jong Un's regime with tougher sanctions, pushing for talks, and military confrontation. An armed conflict could take place in disparate spots thousands of miles apart, involving any number of nations and a wide variety of weapons, conventional or nuclear.

In hundreds of books, policy papers and roundtable discussions, experts have couched various shades of armageddon in the dry, emotion-stripped language of throw-weights and missile ranges. But the nightmare scenarios are simple enough: In a launch from North Korea, a nuclear-tipped missile could reach San Francisco in half an hour. A nuclear attack on Seoul, South Korea's capital of 10 million people, could start and finish in three minutes.

Talking tough about war doesn't necessarily lead to it. Inflammatory language can work both ways, sometimes lighting the fuse of battle, sometimes bringing the parties to an easing of tensions.

At this volatile intersection, alternatives to war are at least as much the focus as preparation for battle. Luring the North Koreans to the negotiating table is perhaps the most popular pathway among many experts, who advocate a “freeze-for-freeze” option, in which the United States might promise to restrict military exercises in the region or eschew new sanctions against Kim's regime, in exchange for North Korea agreeing to halt expansion and testing of its nuclear capabilities.

Former defense secretary Robert M. Gates, for example, has suggested promising not to seek regime change in North Korea in exchange for Kim committing to a cap on his nuclear program.

However, Susan Thornton, the acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said the Trump administration rejects the idea of freeze-for-freeze, calling it a false moral equivalency.

Accepting North Korea into the world's nuclear club is a hard step for many politicians, but maybe not quite as hard as it once was. Now, it's not so much a step as an acceptance of the status quo.

“I don't think we're going to get denuclearization,” said Richard Nephew, a scholar at Columbia University who was a sanctions co-ordinator in President Barack Obama's State Department. “So we might want to accept them and depend on deterrence theory. There's a reason North Korea has not invaded South Korea: They fear overwhelming response from the United States.”

But if North Korea won't negotiate, or if the Trump administration decides against making concessions that might lure the Kim regime to the table, a military confrontation remains “a very plausible path,” Nephew said. “It's a very tempting idea to solve this problem once and for all.”

The current spate of North Korean agitation is hardly a new phenomenon. Security experts in Washington have been debating how best to respond to a nuclear threat from the Kim regime for four decades and three generations of the family's rule. North Korea was presumed to have nuclear warheads in the 1990s, and the country exploded its first nuclear device in 2006.

A military confrontation could start with a U.S. effort to force regime change, either by taking out the Kim regime or by fomenting a rebellion among elites in the isolated dictatorship.

“But it's hard to imagine that scenario ending with anything other than the North Koreans deciding to light up Seoul,” Nephew said. And if South Korea were given a voice in any U.S. decision to use force, it's unlikely that Seoul would assent to a strategy that could spark a wider conflagration on the Korean Peninsula.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/National-Security/Images/06133273-0830.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/10/National-Security/Images/06133273-0830.jpg)
A 2013 picture from KCNA shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at an undisclosed location.
— Photograph: North Korean Central News Agency/European Pressphoto Agency.

Most of those who have considered the merits of launching a limited attack on the North — say, to destroy nuclear capabilities — have concluded that what Americans might see as limited could well be interpreted by the Kim regime as an invitation to all-out conflict.

North Korea might even respond with force to the ongoing U.S. show of strength in its neighborhood. American ships, planes and troops have been on maneuvers nearby as part of annual exercises, and the United States sent B-1 bombers stationed in Guam over the Korean Peninsula last month.

The North could also launch its own provocation — an attack on Guam, a cyberattack on Japan or a skirmish on the boundary between the two Koreas, the planet's most heavily armed border.

In 2010, for example, the North sank a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, and a few months later shelled Yeonpyeong Island, a South Korean territory in the Yellow Sea, killing two soldiers. In those cases, “South Korea took hits and did not retaliate,” said Richard Lacquement, a retired Army colonel who served as a military planner in South Korea. But if they did retaliate, he wondered, might that ignite a larger war?

If the latest North Korean threats about hitting Guam reflect any real intent beyond rhetorical saber-rattling, a launch would be detected by Japanese radar, leading U.S. ships in the Pacific to launch missiles to destroy the North Korean warhead, according to one scenario. The immediate crisis might be averted, but North Korea might then respond by attacking South Korean patrol boats near the border between the two Koreas.

Skirmishes have taken place in that area for many years, but the chances that such a conflict could quickly metastasize into a full-scale war are high, military analysts said.

In a conventional war, heavy casualties would likely result as North Korean troops poured into the South, using tunnels the North is reported to have built under the demilitarized zone between the countries. In addition, North Korea is believed to have a stockpile of several thousand tons of chemical weapons, according to the International Crisis Group (https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/korean-peninsula), which studies global conflicts.

In war games played out at Washington policy institutes, even minor confrontations have led to a nuclear exchange. In one model, a single nuclear device deployed against Seoul would result in 180,000 deaths and 160,000 additional injuries, along with a near-total collapse of civil order, including a mass exodus from the city leading to gridlock and a paralyzed health-care system.

Even without using nuclear weapons, the North could sow panic and perhaps force a shift in U.S. policy. North Korea might attempt to spread fear through an act of terrorism, said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific security expert at the Center for a New American Security. “A few grenades in downtown Seoul will absolutely close down the city out of fear,” he said.

Even without nuclear force, North Korea might seek to divide the United States from its allies. How, for example, would regional Asian powers react if North Korea shot a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse over Tokyo, temporarily turning off the lights in the Japanese metropolis?

In that instance, some experts concluded, Japan might join with some neighbors to urge Washington to cut a deal with Kim, averting further military conflict by accepting North Korea as a nuclear power.

North Korea has “proven adept over the years at using force in pretty calibrated ways to achieve political objectives,” said Thomas Mahnken, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, which does war-game planning. He said the North takes advantage of the relative unwillingness of the United States and South Korea to risk war.

“We lived in a period from the end of the Cold War until the recent past where we could delude ourselves that we lived in a risk-free world — and that era is over,” Mahnken said.

Many scenarios exploring how a U.S.-North Korea conflict would unfold founder on uncertainties about what Kim really wants. Despite the country's acquisition of nuclear weapons, “the regime does not have regional ambitions,” concluded Robert Carlin of Stanford University and Robert Jervis of Columbia in a paper that studied how North Korea might use its new status.

“The most likely scenario,” they wrote (http://38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/CarlinJervis-final.pdf), “is for Pyongyang to remain tightly focused on its domestic situation, especially on its economy, and on ways to loosen or blunt the pressures from its neighbors and the United States.”

Still, they said, “we could well enter the danger zone of North Korean fatalism, in which a decision to use nuclear weapons, especially against Japan — the historic enemy — would rise on the list of ‘patriotic’ options.”

The North Korean leadership, they warned, “might become… fatalistic and decide that death with ‘glory’ is preferable to defeat.”

• Marc Fisher, a senior editor, writes about most anything at The Washington Post. He's been The Post's enterprise editor, local columnist and Berlin bureau chief, and he’s covered politics, education, pop culture, and much else in three decades on the Metro, Style, National and Foreign desks.

• David Nakamura covers the White House for The Washington Post. He has previously covered sports, education and city government and reported from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Japan.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

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• Washington dives into options, consequences in North Korea crisis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gaming-out-the-north-korea-crisis-how-the-conflict-might-escalate/2017/08/10/06d0207a-7ddc-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html)

• Are we close to nuclear war with North Korea? The consensus is probably not. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/11/are-we-on-the-brink-of-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-the-consensus-is-probably-not)

• Trump escalates rhetoric on North Korea's nuclear program (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-escalates-rhetoric-on-threat-from-north-korea/2017/08/10/ff49e018-7ded-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

• How does the U.S. launch a nuclear attack? The president gives the order — and that's it. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/10/if-trump-wants-a-nuclear-attack-against-north-korea-his-military-advisers-have-few-other-options)

• A nuclear-armed North Korea could make smaller disputes with Pyongyang much more dangerous (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-nuclear-armed-north-korea-could-make-smaller-disputes-with-pyongyang-much-more-dangerous/2017/08/10/b62ee0ce-7dd7-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

• Trump has been making ominous threats his whole life (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-has-been-making-ominous-threats-his-whole-life/2017/08/10/68e69646-7e0d-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

• In dealing with North Korea, Trump needs allies — not bombast (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-trump-would-mobilize-against-north-korea--and-how-to-avoid-it/2017/08/10/c8667582-7e08-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gaming-out-the-north-korea-crisis-how-the-conflict-might-escalate/2017/08/10/06d0207a-7ddc-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gaming-out-the-north-korea-crisis-how-the-conflict-might-escalate/2017/08/10/06d0207a-7ddc-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korean missile flies over Japan, escalating tensions
and prompting an angry response from Tokyo

The launch comes as Pyongyang has been threatening to fire a missile to land close to Guam.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 6:09PM EDT - Monday, August 28, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/28/Foreign/Images/North_Korea_30742-55762.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/28/Foreign/Images/North_Korea_30742-55762.jpg)
This image from video aired by North Korea's KRT shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting soldiers during what
Korean Central News Agency called a “target-striking contest” on August 26th. — Photograph: KRT/Associated Press.

TOKYO — North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Tuesday morning that flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, public broadcaster NHK reported. The government issued an alert for residents in some prefectures to take cover.

Although North Korea has sent a missile over Japan once before — in 1998 — this launch comes at a time of heightened tensions. Pyongyang has been threatening to fire a missile over Japan and into the waters around the American territory of Guam.

“We'll make the utmost effort to protect the public,” a visibly agitated Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, told reporters at his office early on Tuesday morning. NHK showed Patriot missiles lined up in Japan, a staunch U.S. ally, ready to shoot down any incoming missiles.

The Japanese government convened an emergency national security council meeting for 8 a.m. to discuss the threat.

The missile was launched at 5:58 a.m. Japanese time from a site at Sunan, north of Pyongyang. Sunan is the location of the country's main international airport.

There was initial confusion over how many missiles were fired. Japan reported that three missiles had been launched, but later clarified to say that it thought one missile had been launched but that it had broken into three parts during flight.

The missile flew over Hokkaido at 6:06 a.m. It traveled 733 miles to land in the Pacific Ocean east of Hokkaido's Cape Erimo, NHK reported.

South Korea's joint chiefs of staff also confirmed that the missile had passed over Japan.

Tuesday's launches, on the heels of three short-range missiles fired on Saturday (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-is-reported-to-have-launched-another-missile-heightening-tensions/2017/08/25/4569a10c-89e5-11e7-96a7-d178cf3524eb_story.html), come amid ongoing joint exercises between the United States and South Korean militaries, exercises that North Korea always strongly protests because it considers them preparation for an invasion.

The launches mark a dangerous new escalation from Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Kim — who has ordered the launch of 18 missiles this year alone, compared to the 16 missiles his father, Kim Jong Il, fired during 17 years in power —has defied international calls to stop his provocations.

Missile launches and nuclear tests are banned by the United Nations Security Council so the North Korean action consistutes a violation that will elicit more angry condemnation.

But Kim has pressed ahead unrelentingly, making strides with his missile program.

Last month, North Korea launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles theoretically capable of reaching the mainland United States.

Kim's regime had been threatening to fire a missile to pass over Japan and land near Guam (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/09/why-north-korea-threatened-guam-the-tiny-u-s-territory-with-big-military-power), the American territory in the Pacific Ocean that is home to two huge U.S. military bases, by the middle of this month. However, Kim later said that after reviewing the plans, he would “watch the Yankees a little longer” before making a decision whether to launch.

North Korea listed prefectures including Hiroshima, Ehime and Kochi as on the flight path. But Tuesday's missile went in the other direction, north over Hokkaido and away from Guam.

After the Guam threat, President Trump has warned North Korea that “things will happen to them like they never thought possible” should the isolated country attack the United States or its allies.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post’s bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

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• GRAPHIC: How three recent launches signaled new leaps in North Korea’s missile capabilities (http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/north-korea-launch)

• North Korea mocks Trump's ‘ego-driven’ Twitter posts as military exercises continue (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/24/north-korea-mocks-trumps-ego-driven-twitter-posts-as-military-exercises-continue)

• In a dangerous time, the Pentagon prepares for a war game on the Korean Peninsula (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/15/in-a-dangerous-time-the-pentagon-prepares-for-a-war-game-on-the-korean-peninsula)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Trump: ‘All options are on the table’ after North Korea
launched missile over Japan

The president's response was more restrained than his past pledges of “fire and fury”.

By JOHN WAGNER and ANNA FIFIELD | 9:17AM EDT - Tuesday, August 29, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/25/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Trump_Republicans_74900-d5400-2388.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/25/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Trump_Republicans_74900-d5400-2388.jpg)
President Trump said earlier this month that he would make Kim Jong Un “truly regret” harming the United States or its allies.
— Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press.

PRESIDENT TRUMP said that “all options are on the table” following North Korea's latest missile launch early on Tuesday, this one fired over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean in the most brazen provocation of Kim Jong Un's five-year-long rule.

“The world has received North Korea's latest message loud and clear: This regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” Trump said on Tuesday morning in a statement. “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table.”

Despite the grave warning, Trump's statement was notably measured in contrast to his response to previous tests of ballistic missile launches by North Korea. After a recent spate, he promised “fire and fury” if the isolated nation continued to provoke the United States.

Trump also said earlier this month that he would make Kim “truly regret” harming the United States or its allies.

As he walked from the White House to Marine One, en route to survey hurricane damage in Texas, Trump paused briefly to answer a reporter's question about what he plans to do about North Korea.

“We'll see, we'll see,” he said.

Trump's statement came more than 12 hours after White House aides had signaled a statement by the president was in the works.

The Japanese prime minister's office said Shinzo Abe and Trump talked by phone for 40 minutes after the launch, agreeing that they should increase pressure on North Korea.

The missile appears to have been a Hwasong-12, the intermediate-range ballistic missile technically capable of flying 3,000 miles that North Korea has been threatening to launch toward the U.S. territory of Guam. But North Korea launched Tuesday's missile to the east, over Hokkaido and into the Pacific rather than on a southward path toward Guam, apparently to test its flight on a normal trajectory without crossing a “red line” of aiming at the United States.

Still, this launch, coming after North Korea last month launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles theoretically capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscore both Kim's defiance of the international community and his determination to press ahead with his missile program. Kim has now ordered the launch of 18 missiles this year alone, compared with the 16 missiles his father, Kim Jong Il, fired during 17 years in power.

The U.N. Security Council confirmed that it would hold an emergency meeting in New York on Tuesday to discuss the latest provocation. Missile launches and nuclear tests are banned by the U.N. Security Council, but North Korea has paid no attention to its resolutions.

Kim's government had been threatening to fire a missile to land near Guam, which is home to two huge U.S. military bases, by the middle of this month. However, Kim later said that after reviewing the plans, he would “watch the Yankees a little longer” before making a decision about whether to launch.

After the Guam threat, Trump warned North Korea that “things will happen to them like they never thought possible” should the isolated country attack the United States or its allies.

With no missile launches during the first three weeks of August, the Trump administration had suggested that its tough talk was working. At a campaign-style rally in Phoenix last week, Trump alluded to his earlier rhetoric on North Korea, telling a boisterous crowd that Kim was “starting to respect” the United States.

“I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us,” Trump said at the rally. “I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a similar argument at the time, saying that he was pleased “to see that the regime in Pyongyang has certainly demonstrated some level of restraint that we've not seen in the past.”

Those comments came before North Korea's firing of three short-range missiles on Friday.

Asked during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” if he still stood by his and Trump's assessments, Tillerson said, “I don't know that we're wrong. I think it's going to take some time to tell."

• Anna Fifield reported from Tokyo.

• John Wagner is a national political reporter covering the White House for The Washington Post.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: North Korean missile passes over northern Japan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/a51de862-8c4a-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_video.html)

• VIDEO: Trump on North Korea: ‘They will be met with fire and fury’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/c64c8044-7c72-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_video.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/29/trump-all-options-are-on-the-table-following-north-korea-missile-launch-over-japan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/29/trump-all-options-are-on-the-table-following-north-korea-missile-launch-over-japan)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea's latest launch suggests it rejects both
U.S. threats and offers to talk

Trump says “all options are on the table” after ballistic missile is launched over Japan.

By ANNE GEARAN and ANNA FIFIELD | 7:01PM EDT - Tuesday, August 29, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/29/Foreign/Images/AFP_RX4B9-4742.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/29/Foreign/Images/AFP_RX4B9-4742.jpg)
People watch a television news screen showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch, at a railway station in Seoul
on August 29th, 2017. — Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

NORTH KOREA's launch of a ballistic missile over Japan was unprecedented, but President Trump's response on Tuesday was not — a renewal of his warning that “all options are on the table.” His tough talk may only serve to remind that the possibility of military action has not yet deterred North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The missile launch seemed designed to wreak just the right amount of havoc: enough for Kim to show that he would not be cowed but not so much as to invite the “fire and fury” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-tweets-news-report-citing-anonymous-sources-on-n-korea-movements/2017/08/08/47a9b9c0-7c48-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html) that Trump warned could follow continued North Korean threats.

The launch early on Tuesday was the first test of such a sophisticated weapon over the landmass of a U.S. ally and an obvious warning to the United States that North Korea could easily target U.S. military facilities on Guam or elsewhere in the Pacific region.

It came during annual joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea that have infuriated the nuclear-armed communist regime. It also came despite recent offers of talks from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

“The world has received North Korea's latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” Trump said in an early morning statement.

“Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world,” he said. “All options are on the table.”

The United States requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, which this month unanimously approved the strictest economic sanctions to date on a nation that already is one of the most heavily sanctioned in the world.

“No country should have missiles flying over them like those 130 million people in Japan. It's unacceptable,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-haley-idUSKCN1B91Q8).

North Korea has “violated every single U.N. Security Council resolution that we've had, and so I think something serious has to happen,” she added. “Enough is enough.”

There was no indication that Kim was intimidated by the White House reaction. The state Korean Central News Agency reported on Wednesday morning local time that the North Korean leader had been present for the missile launch and had called it “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam.” According to the agency, Kim said he had gone ahead with the missile launch because the United States proceeded with “the bellicose war exercises” with South Korea.

International outrage over the latest North Korean missile went well beyond Washington. Trump spoke by phone with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hours after the launch, and the two leaders “committed to increasing pressure on North Korea, and doing their utmost to convince the international community to do the same,” according to a White House statement.

That was a reference to stiff international sanctions that so far have failed to stop North Korea from developing working nuclear bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The United States claims North Korea could not evade those sanctions if other countries including China enforced them more stringently.

Asked about the effectiveness of sanctions and international denunciation, given that North Korea does not seem to care about the moves, deputy British U.N. envoy Jonathan Allen insisted such actions have merit.

“They send that really important message of the entire world being united, and they do have an impact on North Korea,” Allen told reporters at the United Nations.

The missile appeared to be a Hwasong-12, the intermediate-range ballistic missile that North Korea has been threatening to shoot into the waters near the U.S. territory of Guam.

But North Korea did not shoot it southeast toward Guam. Instead, it lobbed the missile in a northeasterly direction, over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.

It was, as Stephan Haggard, a political scientist and Korea expert at the University of California at San Diego, described it, “perfectly calibrated to create political mischief.”

“The launch shows how Kim Jong Un is weirdly conservative, calibrating tests so that they are difficult to counter, flying just beneath the radar of a required kinetic response,” Haggard said.

Taro Kono, Japan's foreign minister, acknowledged as much. “If North Korea had launched the missile to the south, the U.S. might have viewed it as a considerable provocation and responded accordingly,” Kono told reporters after the launch.

North Korea's action also seemed designed to drive a wedge between its neighbors.

In Japan, Abe called it “an unprecedented, grave and serious threat.” Abe wants to beef up Japan's military capabilities, and missile launches like this provide ammunition for his controversial cause. South Korea's liberal president, Moon Jae-in, who has promoted engagement with Pyongyang, immediately denounced the launch and sent his fighter jets to drop bombs on a shooting range near the border with North Korea.

Both reactions appear to have rattled China, where officials called on all sides to take a step back. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying characterized the North Korea situation as “at a tipping point, approaching a crisis.” She repeated China's call for talks between North Korea and the United States.

Tillerson had stressed on Sunday that the offer of talks remained open, and he encouraged Kim to choose “a different path.” For weeks, U.S. officials have sought to assure Kim that Washington does not want to topple him or invade his country, a message also meant to appeal to North Korea's protector, China.

Trump said last week that North Korea was finally “starting to respect us,” although he added that his threat to answer the country’s provocations with “fire and fury” might not have been strong enough.

Tillerson also had publicly praised North Korea last week for showing “restraint” since the U.N. Security Council vote and in the face of the annual military drills. Although North Korea had not test-launched any missiles for nearly a month at that point, it has done so twice since Tillerson spoke.

North Korea fired rockets over the Japanese mainland in 1998 and 2009 — but it described them as satellite launch vehicles and gave Japan advance warning in the second case. Tuesday's missile launch was purely military and “demonstrated a direct threat,” said Narushige Michishita, an expert on Korean Peninsula security issues at the Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

“From a military point of view, they have demonstrated an ability to use a very mobile, agile missile against targets anywhere in Japan,” he said.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that the United States would shoot down any missile North Korea fired at Guam or a U.S. ally.

• Anna Fifield reported from Tokyo.

• Anne Gearan is a national politics correspondent for The Washington Post.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

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• VIDEO: Warning sirens sound across Japan as North Korean missile passes over Hokkaido (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/8874cebe-8c46-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_video.html)

• North Korea mocks Trump's ‘ego-driven’ Twitter posts as military exercises continue (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/24/north-korea-mocks-trumps-ego-driven-twitter-posts-as-military-exercises-continue)

• In a dangerous time, the Pentagon prepares for a war game on the Korean Peninsula (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/15/in-a-dangerous-time-the-pentagon-prepares-for-a-war-game-on-the-korean-peninsula)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-koreas-latest-launch-designed-to-cause-maximum-mayhem-minimal-blowback/2017/08/29/6fc52364-8c46-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-koreas-latest-launch-designed-to-cause-maximum-mayhem-minimal-blowback/2017/08/29/6fc52364-8c46-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Analysis: Is North Korea winning deterrence war with US?

By ERIC TALMADGE | 9:45PM EDT - Tuesday, August 29, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_800w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-08-30/AP/Images/North_Korea_The_Deterrence_War_Analysis_06504.jpg-a302a.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-08-30/AP/Images/North_Korea_The_Deterrence_War_Analysis_06504.jpg-a302a.jpg)
In this file image made from video of an August 14th, 2017, broadcast in a news bulletin by North Korea's KRT,
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un receives a military briefing in Pyongyang. — Picture: KRT/Associated Press.

TOKYO — Conventional wisdom says if North Korea were ever to use its nuclear weapons, it would be an act of suicide. But brace yourself for what deterrence experts call the “theory of victory”.

To many who have studied how nuclear strategies actually work, it's conceivable North Korea could escalate to a nuclear war and still survive. Tuesday's missile test suggests once again it may be racing to prepare itself to do just that — but only if forced into a corner.

Every missile North Korean leader Kim Jong Un launches comes at a high cost. North Korea doesn't have an unlimited supply, and they aren't easy or cheap to build.

So when Kim orders his strategic forces to launch, it's safe to assume it’s a move calculated to achieve maximum political, technical and training value. Tuesday's launch of a ballistic missile over Japan and into the open Pacific Ocean, once again blowing past warnings from the United States and its allies, is a prime example.

There is a solid strategy hidden in each launch. From Kim's perspective, here's what it looks like.

HOW THE NORTH COULD SURVIVE

North Korea has never suggested it would use its nuclear weapons to attack the United States or its allies completely out of the blue.

But, like Washington, it has stated quite explicitly that if it is either attacked or has reason to believe an attack is imminent, it has the right to launch a retaliatory or even a pre-emptive first strike.

The trigger for North Korea could be unusual troop movements in South Korea, suspicious activity at U.S. bases in Japan or — as the North has recently warned — flights near its airspace by U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers out of their home base on the island of Guam.

If Kim deemed any of those an imminent attack, one North Korean strategy would be to immediately target U.S. bases in Japan. A more violent move would be to attack a Japanese city, such as Tokyo, though that would probably be unnecessary since at this point the objective would be to weaken the U.S. military's command and control. Going nuclear would send the strongest message, but chemical weapons would be an alternative.

North Korea's ability to next hit the U.S. mainland with nuclear-tipped missiles is the key to how it would survive in this scenario. And that's why Kim has been rushing to perfect and show them off to the world.

“The whole reason they developed the ICBM was to deter American nuclear retaliation because if you can hold an American city or cities at risk the American calculation always changes,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a nuclear strategy specialist.

“Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a U.S. military base in the region?” he asks. “Probably not.”

That, right there, is Kim's big wager.

If “no” actually is the answer, then North Korea has a chance — though slim and risky — of staving off a full-scale conventional attack by the United States to survive another day.

USE 'EM OR LOSE 'EM

Kim isn't paranoid. He has good reason to fear an attack by the United States.

It's highly unlikely Washington would unilaterally start a war. But if it did, North Korea would face a far stronger and better equipped enemy able to — literally — bring the fight right to Kim's front door. A successful U.S. first strike could within hours or days take out North Korea's leadership, or at least seriously disrupt its chain of command, and destroy a good portion of the country's fighting power.

So North Korea has a very strong incentive to escalate fast, before all is lost.

Under Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il — Kim's grandfather and father — North Korea relied on conventional artillery just north of the Demilitarized Zone to keep Washington at bay, figuring the U.S. wouldn't make any moves that might risk an attack on South Korea's capital, Seoul, and the tremendous casualties and destruction that would bring.

Kim, fearing “decapitation strikes”, has brought missiles and nukes into the mix for an added layer of protection.

His strategy is to neutralize Washington's military option by holding both Seoul and an American city hostage while building up his own ability to withstand a first strike or a massive wave of retaliation. To do that, North Korea is developing an array of missiles that can be launched by land or from submarines and easily hidden and transported to remote, hard-to-detect sites.

Reasonably enough, countries with big arsenals are generally considered less likely to feel the need to use them or lose them.

North Korea is believed to have an arsenal of perhaps several dozen nuclear weapons, growing by maybe a dozen or so each year. That's a lot, but some analysts believe it may take a few hundred to cure Kim of the itchy trigger finger syndrome.

THE ‘MADMAN STRATEGY’

In deterrence circles, ambiguity is considered a must. But confusion can be deadly.

In any confrontation, it's best that an opponent knows better than to cross the line — but not to know exactly where that line is. That fosters caution. Confusion, on the other hand, creates the incentive to make a move either out of frightened self-defense or confident opportunism.

That's what North Korea appears to be doing now, though it’s not clear whether the motive is fear or arrogance.

Over the past several weeks, President Donald Trump has promised “fire, fury and power” like the world has never seen should North Korea issue even a vocal threat — which it did almost immediately, with no major consequences. Trump's Cabinet members walked that back, but in the process set or seemed to erase red lines of their own.

Some have suggested this is a deliberate “madman strategy”.

Inspired by the writings of Machiavelli, President Richard Nixon gave this ploy a go against Vietnam in the late 1960s. His idea was to make the Vietnamese and their Communist allies think Nixon would do anything, including use his nuclear weapons, to end the war.

But if Trump is doing the same, he isn't doing it very well, Narang said.

While Kim's government speaks with one voice and maintains consistency, which is what gives the madman approach its credibility, it's “really hard for Trump to make these crazy statements and not have them walked back by someone in his administration.”

“At some point,” Narang said, “the blurriness goes away and we just look incoherent.”

• Associated Press story.

• Eric Talmadge has been the Associated Press' Pyongyang bureau chief since 2013.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/analysis-is-north-korea-winning-deterrence-war-with-us/2017/08/29/500a6ca6-8d2b-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/analysis-is-north-korea-winning-deterrence-war-with-us/2017/08/29/500a6ca6-8d2b-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

President Trump is making the North Korea crisis worse

The administration has no clear strategy — and an even less clear message.

By LAURA ROSENBERGER | 6:00AM EDT - Wednesday, August 30, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2017/08/0830_ForN_DoubleTrouble.jpg&w=975) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/30/north-koreas-calculated-chaos-ought-to-make-trump-think-again-on-iran)
How President Donald J. Trump has been outsmarted and boxed into a corner by both North Korea and Iran (click on the image to read more).

NORTH KOREA's launch of a ballistic missile over Japan on Monday night marked a significant escalation in its recent spate of missile and nuclear tests. Over the last year, Kim Jong Un has conducted a continued march of these tests. Unlike his father and grandfather, who used such tests both to advance the country's program and as provocations aimed at an external audience, Kim has largely eschewed the provocation-cycle pattern and focused instead on an unrelenting march to secure nuclear weapons and the capability to deliver them.

But this launch was different.

Launching a ballistic missile over Japan is a serious provocation, and while the test would have helped North Korea gather important technical data about the missile and its re-entry vehicle, it also was clearly intended to send a signal. Kim's move was aimed at shaking the confidence of our allies. The test comes as the United States and South Korea are in the middle of annual joint exercises, and while the United States and Japan were conducting missile defense drills. Warnings of a potential inbound missile sounded across parts of northern Japan and were replayed by Japanese media across the country. By taking such a provocative step, Kim knew he would rattle nerves in Japan and South Korea, possibly prompting questions about whether the United States would be able to defend its allies should they come under attack.

Kim's move was also intended to send a signal to Washington. It comes after President Trump had proudly crowed that Kim was “starting to respect us” (http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-kim-kong-un-respect-north-korea-2017-8) following their hot war of words this month. Kim was surely listening — and he decided to take Trump up on the challenge. Late on Tuesday, North Korean media reported (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-koreas-latest-launch-designed-to-cause-maximum-mayhem-minimal-blowback/2017/08/29/6fc52364-8c46-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html) that Kim was at the launch and that it was “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam.”

The situation with North Korea, in other words, got worse just after Trump declared it was getting better. That's not an accident. So far, the Trump administration has been unable to execute a clear strategy for dealing with Kim — which is why the messaging and actions from the White House, State Department and Pentagon have been so uncoordinated and ineffective.

Reassuring our allies of our commitment to their defense and ensuring close co-ordination with them on any response to this most recent missile launch must be the United States' first priority. After Monday's launch, Trump spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson spoke with South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. A recent “2+2” meeting between U.S. and Japanese defense and foreign ministers also provided an important platform for contingency planning and discussion of crisis co-ordination. But these actions must be sustained — and they were already weakened by Trump's statement after the launch (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/29/statement-president-donald-j-trump-north-korea), which neglected to include a reaffirmation of U.S. commitments to defend our allies — language that should be standard for any such event.

The Trump administration has not shown the kind of discipline required to manage this kind of coordination — either internally across the U.S. government or externally with our allies. Alliance co-ordination should always be part of dealing with the challenge from North Korea, and the North's latest action will make such co-ordination both more difficult and more important. The mixed message we've seen from the Trump administration has at times left our allies unclear on U.S. intentions (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/us/politics/north-korea-nuclear-threat-rex-tillerson.html). In one case, Trump said South Korea would have to pay for deployment of the THAAD missile defense system (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/world/asia/donald-trump-south-korea-missile-system-thaad.html), in contravention of an earlier agreement, setting off an uproar in Seoul and forcing national security adviser H.R. McMaster to clarify that the previous deal still stood. In another instance, Seoul was caught off guard by Trump's tweet that “military solutions locked and loaded,” prompting South Korean President Moon Jae-in to maintain that “no one can make a decision on military action on the Korean Peninsula without our agreement” (http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2107149/south-koreas-moon-vows-no-war-north-after-trump-warns-us-weapons).

This mixed messaging is a symptom of a lack of co-ordination. But this is not just a communications problem: It is an inability to execute on a strategy to deal with the most serious national security challenge we face.

This administration claims to have a strategy. Even amid early turnover on Trump's national security team — including the departure of the two top security advisers at the National Security Council — the new administration reportedly completed a review of North Korea policy (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-review-idUSKBN1740UY), with Trump approving the outcome. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Tillerson recently laid out this approach in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/30/president-trump-is-making-the-north-korea-crisis-worse/?utm_term=.700aa88debe5#https://www.wsj.com/articles/mattis-tillerson-say-north-korea-could-still-face-u-s-military-response-1503007853). That strategy includes a familiar mix of tools to deal with the challenge: a peaceful pressure campaign involving multilateral sanctions via the United Nations and economic pressure from Beijing and Moscow; willingness to negotiate, with clear articulated criteria to judge Pyongyang's seriousness; and military options, including defensive steps and development of plans should they be needed. This is essentially the plan that the Obama administration was pursuing at the end of its term, wrapped in a different tagline.

This is a reasonable strategy, but having a good policy on paper is not enough — implementation and execution is what makes it a strategy. To work, the elements need to be carefully coordinated. That's essential to ensuring that diplomacy is backed by leverage; that deterrence is backed by capability; that intent is clearly and credibly communicated; that there is no daylight with our allies in Seoul and Tokyo; that Beijing and Moscow know what we expect of them, and the consequences for not following through; and that Pyongyang understands clearly the choice it faces.

All of that requires skillful diplomacy, a team in place to coordinate and carry that out, and avoiding harmful rhetoric. It requires arm-twisting to ensure that sanctions are implemented. It requires co-ordination with allies on defense posture, including enhanced missile defense. It requires a shared understanding internally and with our negotiating partners of the package of carrots and sticks that would be part of any negotiation. And it requires any debates remaining inside the walls of government, and not spilling in to the public or interfering in implementation of approved policy.

But the unco-ordinated words and actions from Trump and his administration have undercut any serious effort to address this critical national security challenge. Key positions across the government remain vacant. Trump has not even nominated an assistant secretary of state (https://ourpublicservice.org/issues/presidential-transition/political-appointee-tracker.php) for East Asia and the Pacific; an assistant secretary of defense for Asia; or a U.S. ambassador to South Korea. We still have no undersecretary of state for arms control and nonproliferation, nor key assistant secretaries under that chain. This leaves critical gaps in the team that would coordinate closely with our allies, particularly in a crisis; marshal international efforts to implement and enforce the new U.N. Security Council sanctions; engage in diplomatic co-ordination with partners and allies; and ensure our defense posture is where it needs to be. The administration has also shown signs of politicizing intelligence (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/the-high-cost-of-politicizing-intelligence/517854), causing a credibility gap that will undercut our ability to prompt partners and allies to take action on sanctions violations.

Co-ordination with our allies is also critical to reducing the chance of miscalculation in a crisis. That risk is increased with every contradiction. Our adversaries will seek to take advantage of any divisions, leaving us vulnerable. It’s critical that our allies believe in the credibility of our commitments, and understand how we intend to respond in a range of scenarios. And it’s critical that the United States understand how our allies plan to react in such scenarios, as well.

The United States has established mechanisms with both South Korea and Japan to plan for a range of contingencies, including a counter-provocation plan (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/26/world/asia/us-and-south-korea-sign-plan-to-counter-north.html) with Seoul to respond to scenarios like the North's 2010 shelling of a South Korean island (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/23/AR2010112300880.html). This plan calls for a “South-Korean led, U.S.-supported” response — but this depends on a clear U.S. understanding of the actions South Korea would take in various contingencies, and what the United States would therefore be committed to in response. It's critical that the Trump administration revalidate such understandings so that there are no surprises should the North launch a similar attack, and ensure that key personnel are in place to manage important alliance co-ordination mechanisms, particularly in a crisis.

But even with these plans in place, unco-ordinated messages from Trump administration officials — and especially from the president — would undercut that careful planning and could leave our allies guessing about how the United States would respond. Off-the-cuff statements that are vague on intentions and not co-ordinated with our allies (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/us/politics/north-korea-nuclear-threat-rex-tillerson.html) — like Trump's “fire and fury” threat — will ultimately make our allies feels less secure. On Wednesday morning, though, Trump did just that, tweeting that “talking is not the answer.”

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170830twdjt_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zpsahwzkizb.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/902875515534626817)

Almost immediately, he was contradicted by Mattis, who told reporters (https://twitter.com/tamarakeithNPR/status/902901028839927808) that “we're never out of diplomatic solutions.”

Monday night's launch may open the most serious chapter we have seen with North Korea. Our allies are looking to the United States to lead. In the absence of a clear U.S. approach, they may take matters in to their own hands. Dividing the United States from our allies may be part of North Korea’s goal — and an inability to execute on a co-ordinated strategy with our allies would play right in to that.

• Laura Rosenberger is director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was director for China and North Korea at the National Security Council and a member of the “six-party talks” delegation on North Korea's nuclear program.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Will North Korea make missiles over Japan the new normal? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/will-north-korea-make-missiles-over-japan-the-new-normal/2017/08/30/e0a4a7dc-8de3-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

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• Presidents have too much power over U.S. nukes. Especially President Trump. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/presidents-have-too-much-power-over-us-nukes-especially-president-trump/2017/08/18/abd0041e-8363-11e7-ab27-1a21a8e006ab_story.html)

• How President Trump could tweet his way into nuclear war with North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/how-president-trump-could-tweet-his-way-into-nuclear-war-with-north-korea)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/30/president-trump-is-making-the-north-korea-crisis-worse (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/30/president-trump-is-making-the-north-korea-crisis-worse)

from The Washington Post....

The administration's incoherence on North Korea intensifies

Donald Trump and Jim Mattis contradict each other.

By JENNIFER RUBIN | 2:30PM EDT - Wednesday, August 30, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/01/06/Production/WashingtonPost/Images/2016-01-06T032640Z_01_PYO000_RTRIDSP_3_NORTHKOREA-NUCLEAR-1068.jpg&w=900) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_908w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/01/06/Production/WashingtonPost/Images/2016-01-06T032640Z_01_PYO000_RTRIDSP_3_NORTHKOREA-NUCLEAR-1068.jpg&w=1484)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gives a New Year’s address for 2016 in Pyongyang. — Photograph: Kyodo/Reuters.

THE Washington Post reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-koreas-latest-launch-designed-to-cause-maximum-mayhem-minimal-blowback/2017/08/29/6fc52364-8c46-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html):

Quote

North Korea's launch of a ballistic missile over Japan was unprecedented, but President Trump's response on Tuesday was not — a renewal of his warning that “all options are on the table.” His tough talk may only serve to remind that the possibility of military action has not yet deterred North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The missile launch seemed designed to wreak just the right amount of havoc: enough for Kim to show that he would not be cowed but not so much as to invite the “fire and fury” that Trump warned could follow continued North Korean threats.

The lack of coherence was not lost on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's ranking member, Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (Democrat-Maryland). “The latest provocation from Kim Jong-un's regime, directly threatening our treaty ally Japan, has further heightened tensions in the region and is a clear indication that the administration's approach is not working,” Cardin said in a written statement (https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/ranking/release/cardin-statement-on-north-korean-missile-launch-over-japan) released on Tuesday. He continued, “The United States must continue to stand by our allies South Korea and Japan, and lead the international community in a constructive, multi-pronged effort that meshes both additional pressure and diplomacy to get North Korea to freeze its nuclear and missile programs and get back to the negotiating table. As with most of President Trump's foreign policy, there is no coherent North Korea strategy. Just empty statements and wild, counterproductive tweets.”

As if to prove Cardin correct, we witnessed a clear disconnect between the president and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Trump tweeted (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/902875515534626817), “The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!” A few hours later, news outlets reported (https://www.yahoo.com/news/mattis-still-room-diplomatic-solution-n-korea-151136580.html):

Quote

US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis said on Wednesday that there was still room for diplomacy in dealing with North Korea's provocative ballistic missile launches, after President Donald Trump said negotiations were “not the answer.”

“We're never out of diplomatic solutions,” Mattis said as he went into a meeting with South Korea Defense Minister Song Young-Moo.

“We continue to work together and the minister and I share responsibility to provide for the protection of our nation our populations and our interests, which is what we are here to discuss,” he added.

“We are never complacent.”

The administration will no doubt deny — how dare we! — there is any conflict. You see, what Trump meant is that only talking is unhelpful. Or something. Candidly, outside observers even before today's crossed wires have bemoaned the administration’s lack of discipline, coordination and seriousness.

Laura Rosenberger (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/30/president-trump-is-making-the-north-korea-crisis-worse), director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United State, argues that Trump is making matters worse: “The situation with North Korea, in other words, got worse just after Trump declared it was getting better. That's not an accident. So far, the Trump administration has been unable to execute a clear strategy for dealing with Kim — which is why the messaging and actions from the White House, State Department and Pentagon have been so unco-ordinated and ineffective.”

Others such as Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/07/10/the-trump-administrations-north-korea-policy-headed-for-success-or-failure) make the case that concrete action has not followed rhetoric. Pollack explains that a reasonable approach “would involve isolating North Korea to an unprecedented degree, drying up its sources of foreign exchange, cutting off its trade, creating divisions within its elites, encouraging defections, applying military pressure, using cyber actions to affect its economy, painting the darkest possible picture of the regime's future for its leadership and the elites, and undermining the regime's confidence in its ability to survive.” Nevertheless, he contends, “The Trump administration's recent rhetoric suggests it aspires to do this. But its approach so far suggests its aspirations greatly exceed its concrete actions.”

Others urge we start taking specific steps to squeeze Pyongyang. CNN reports (http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/politics/north-korea-trump-kim-jong-un-rhetoric/index.html):

Quote

The real issue is how continued North Korean provocations distract the US from its goal of de-nuclearizing the Korean peninsula, according to Anthony Ruggiero, a former deputy director of the US Treasury Department and an expert on the use of targeted financial measures for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The US should focus on increasing sanctions and diplomacy with key allies (South Korea and Japan) to counter North Korea’s continued sanctions evasion and nuclear weapons and missile programs,” he said.

Even then, it is far from clear North Korea will give up its nuclear program.

Another approach is to stop talking and start showing muscle. USA Today reports (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/08/30/north-korea-missile-japan/615401001):

Quote

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) said a U.S. warship successfully shot down a medium-range ballistic missile in a test off Hawaii on Wednesday, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to press ahead with more missile tests in the Pacific.

The USS John Paul Jones detected and tracked a missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai with its onboard radar, before intercepting it with SM-6 missiles, the MDA said.

Kim likely will be unimpressed. Even skeptics of more assertive action (including ex-negotiator Christopher Hill) have acknowledged that it may be necessary at some point to shoot down a missile test, a risky proposition that if unsuccessful will vastly embolden North Korea.

It has become a cliche to say there are no good solutions to North Korea. That does not mean however there aren't better and worse choices. Escalating rhetoric and impulsive tweets from the president backed up by no visible action surely is the worst of all. Perhaps the administration should start by having a single person — preferably not Trump — speak on the issue.

• Jennifer Rubin writes the Right Turn (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn) blog for The Washington Post, offering reported opinion from a conservative perspective.

__________________________________________________________________________

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/08/30/the-administrations-incoherence-on-north-korea-intensifies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/08/30/the-administrations-incoherence-on-north-korea-intensifies)

from The Washington Post....

North Korean leader inspects new H-bomb

There will be some skepticism from experts about the country's assertion that it mastered the
technology, but the propaganda claim raises the possibility of an imminent nuclear bomb test.

By FOSTER KLUG - Associated Press | 9:06PM EDT - Saturday, September 02, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1100w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-09-03/AP/Images/North_Korea_Koreas_Tensions_79081.jpg-a65ad.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-09-03/AP/Images/North_Korea_Koreas_Tensions_79081.jpg-a65ad.jpg)
In this undated image distributed on September 3rd, 2017, by the North Korean government, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at an undisclosed location.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/Associated Press.

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a new, “super explosive” hydrogen bomb meant to be loaded into an intercontinental ballistic missile, Pyongyang's state media said on Sunday, a claim to technological mastery that some outside experts will doubt but that raises the possibility of an imminent nuclear bomb test.

Photos released by North Korea showed Kim talking with his lieutenants as he observed a silver, peanut-shaped device that was apparently the purported thermonuclear weapon destined for an ICBM.

Aside from the factuality of the North's claim, the language in its statement seems a strong signal that Pyongyang will soon conduct another nuclear weapon test, which is crucial if North Korean scientists are to fulfill the national goal of an arsenal of viable nuclear ICBMs that can reach the U.S. mainland. There's speculation that such a test could come on or around the September 9th anniversary of North Korea's national founding, something it did last year.

As part of the North's weapons work, Kim was said by his propaganda mavens to have made a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and inspected a “homemade” H-bomb with “super explosive power” that “is adjustable from tens kiloton to hundreds (of) kiloton,” the state run Korean Central News Agency said.

North Korea in July conducted its first ever ICBM tests, part of a stunning jump in progress for the country's nuclear and missile program since Kim rose to power following his father's death in late 2011. The North followed its two tests of ICBMs, which, when perfected, could target large parts of the United States, by threatening to launch a salvo of its Hwasong-12 intermediate range missiles toward the U.S. Pacific island territory of Guam in August.

It flew a Hwasong-12 over northern Japan last week, the first such overflight by a missile capable of carrying nukes, in a launch Kim described as a “meaningful prelude” to containing Guam, the home of major U.S. military facilities, and more ballistic missile tests targeting the Pacific.

To back up its bombast, North Korea needs to conduct nuclear tests. The first of its two such tests last year involved what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb; the second it said was its most powerful detonation ever. Experts and outside governments are skeptical of the hydrogen claim, but it is almost impossible to independently confirm North Korean statements about its highly secret weapons program.

It is clear, however, that each new missile and nuclear test gives the North invaluable information that allows big jumps in capability. A key question is how far North Korea has gotten in efforts to consistently shrink down nuclear warheads so they can fit on long-range missiles.

“Though we cannot verify the claim, (North Korea) wants us to believe that it can launch a thermonuclear strike now, if it is attacked. Importantly, (North Korea) will also want to test this warhead, probably at a larger yield, to demonstrate this capability,” said Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

North Korea's claim that “this warhead is variable-yield and capable of specialized weapons effects implies a complex nuclear strategy. It shows (North Korea) is not only threatening assured destruction of the U.S. and allied cities in the event it is attacked, but also that (North Korea) is considering limited coercive nuclear strikes, or is seeking credible response options for U.S. ones.”

North Korea is thought to have a growing arsenal of nuclear bombs and has spent decades trying to perfect a multistage, long-range missile to eventually carry smaller versions of those bombs.

South Korea's main spy agency has previously asserted that it does not think Pyongyang currently has the ability to develop miniaturized nuclear weapons that can be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles. Some experts, however, think the North may have mastered this technology.

In Washington, there was no immediate reaction from the White House or the State Department.

The North said in its statement on Sunday that its H-bomb “is a multi-functional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack according to strategic goals.”

Kim, according to the statement, claimed that “all components of the H-bomb were homemade … thus enabling the country to produce powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants.”

In what could be read as a veiled warning of more nuclear tests, Kim underlined the need for scientists to “dynamically conduct the campaign for successfully concluding the final-stage research and development for perfecting the state nuclear force” and “set forth tasks to be fulfilled in the research into nukes.”

• Associated Press writers Youkyung Lee and Kim Tong-hyung contributed to this report.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/nkorea-says-it-has-loaded-h-bomb-onto-icbm/2017/09/02/d75c7290-903b-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/nkorea-says-it-has-loaded-h-bomb-onto-icbm/2017/09/02/d75c7290-903b-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea apparently conducts another nuclear test, South Korea says

An artificial earthquake was detected Sunday near the Pyongyang regime’s known
nuclear test site, officials said. The North Koreans earlier in the day claimed to have
developed a hydrogen bomb that could be mounted on a long-range ballistic missile.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 12:42AM EDT - Sunday, September 03, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1000w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/AFP_S26R5-4651.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/AFP_S26R5-4651.jpg)
North Korea said that it had developed a more advanced nuclear bomb with “great destructive power,” releasing photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting
what his government described as a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

TOKYO — North Korea appears to have conducted another nuclear test, the South Korean government said on Sunday after seismic authorities detected an artificial earthquake near Pyongyang regime's known nuclear test site.

This would be North Korea's sixth nuclear test, and the first since President Trump was inaugurated. The action probably will increase already high tensions between the Trump administration and Kim Jong Un's regime.

The U.S Geological Survey said it had recorded a 6.3 magnitude earthquake exactly at noon Sunday local time, near North Korea's known nuclear test site in Punggyeri, in the county's northeast region. The quake was felt in northern China, with emergency sirens blaring in Yanji, near the North Korean border, according to local media.

North Korea's recent nuclear tests have also happened exactly on the hour, often on meaningful dates for North Korea or the United States. It is a holiday weekend in the United States, which marks Labor Day on Monday.

A North Korean nuclear test in September of last year registered as a 5.3-magnitude earthquake at 9 a.m. on a national holiday marking the 68th anniversary of the formation of the communist regime by Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather.

South Korean authorities said Sunday's earthquake appeared to be artificial, consistent with a nuclear test.

President Moon Jae-in immediately called an emergency meeting of his national security council, and the chairman of his Joint Chiefs of Staff put the South Korean military on alert.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he “would not tolerate” another nuclear test.

Analysts had been expecting another nuclear test after North Korea said earlier on Sunday that it had developed a more advanced nuclear bomb with “great destructive power.” But they weren't expecting it so soon after the announcement.

On Sunday, the state-run Korean Central News Agency released photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting what his government described as a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States.

All the components of the “H-bomb” were “homemade” so North Korea could produce “powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying.

North Korea's latest claim on a hydrogen bomb could not be verified. Although it claimed that a nuclear test in January last year was of a hydrogen bomb, experts said the seismic waves generated were consistent with an ordinary nuclear device, not a thermonuclear one.

A sixth nuclear test by the North Koreans would be highly inflammatory for the United States and China, as well as North Korea's other neighbors.

China has expressed annoyance at North Korea's frequent ballistic missile launches, but analysts have said China probably would not take serious action — unless there is another nuclear test.

Sunday's events could also change the equation for Washington. Trump has been warning the Kim regime not to test him, warning on Twitter that the American military was “locked and loaded.”

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html)

How the Los Angeles Times saw it (note, California is on Pacific Daylight Time compared to Washington D.C., which is on Eastern Daylight Time, although I suspect Reality/Donald is probably too intellectually-challenged to be capable of comprehending stuff such as time-zone differences, 'cause he's basically dumb & stupid)....

from the Los Angeles Times....

North Korea appears to have conducted sixth underground
nuclear test, South Korean military says

Seismic event in North Korea was no earthquake, Seoul says.

By MATT STILES | 10:00PM PDT - Friday, September 02, 2017

(http://www.trbimg.com/img-59ab8669/turbine/la-1504413284-dfvs1xmm5i-snap-image/925) (http://www.trbimg.com/img-59ab8669/turbine/la-1504413284-dfvs1xmm5i-snap-image)
Kim Jong Un, center, examines a device at an undisclosed location in an undated photo released by North Korea's official news agency.
— Photograph: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

NORTH KOREA on Sunday conducted what appeared to be its sixth underground nuclear test, South Korean military officials said, in a brash move that surely threatens to heighten already tense relations in the region.

In just over a week, North Korea has test launched at least four ballistic missiles — including one that flew over Japan, causing serious alarm on the island — and boasted about creating a warhead that could, in theory, be used against the United States.

U.S. and South Korean officials say the detonation caused an unnatural tremor detected by sensors, a tell-tale sign of a nuclear test. The blast is believed to have occurred in a village in northeastern North Korea known as Punggyeri — a site closely watched by international nuclear experts. The country's five previous tests, including two last year, occurred there.

The magnitude of the nuclear test, North Korea's first since last September, was estimated at 5.6, according to South Korean officials. The seismic wave occurred about 12:30 p.m. The size, if confirmed, would appear to produce a yield similar to recent tests.

The latest experiment — a clear violation of international resolutions, though not unexpected by United States officials — raises new concerns that North Korea continues to advance as a nuclear state, despite years of effort by the international community to curb its atomic program.

The quake was felt just hours after North Korea boasted that a hydrogen bomb had been mounted on a new intercontinental ballistic missile and that leader Kim Jong Un (http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics-government/government/kim-jong-un-PEPLT00007712-topic.html) had inspected the device.

North Korea, one of the world's most isolated and unpredictable states, appears to be violating global norms with increased impunity. President Trump (http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics-government/donald-trump-PEBSL000163-topic.html) in April said “I don't know” when asked whether a sixth nuclear test would trigger an American response.

Reactions from the international community weren't immediately available, but condemnations from the United States, South Korea and Japan — all bracing in recent days from other provocations — were expected to be swift.

A negative reaction from China, North Korea's most important trading partner and key player in any resolution, would also be likely.

The rogue state is still technically at war with South Korea, a United States ally that has roughly 28,000 American forces stationed on bases, largely within a few hundred miles of the shared Korean border.

Provocations in recent years, under dynastic young ruler Kim, have included numerous ballistic missile tests; the lengthy prison sentence given to an American tourist, who later died after being released; and a land mine incident along the border in 2015 that severely injured two South Korean soldiers.

The test is the latest provocation by the North, which in April paraded a massive battery of military hardware before the world in a recent celebration — including, perhaps, long-range devices capable of striking targets outside Asia.

Last month, the country test launched what the international community now believes were intercontinental ballistic missiles — devices in theory capable of reaching the United States.

North Korea, which security experts say could have more than a dozen nuclear devices, first conducted an underground test in 2006. The tests' power has increased over time, and last year state media reported advances in the miniaturization and manufacturing of nuclear warheads in addition to its strongest experiment to date last September.

“The standardization of the nuclear warhead will enable the DPRK to produce at will and as many as it wants a variety of smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear warheads of higher strike power,” the government said last September, using the initials of North Korea's formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Security experts in recent years have begun to shift their focus away from disarming the country to studying methods for deterring the country’s desire to use or share nuclear weapons.

At the same time, the North has made steady progress in its land- and sea-based missile programs, which already have the ability to strike regional American allies in Seoul or Tokyo. In a televised New Year's Day message this year, Kim boasted that the country was also making significant progress in its effort to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking American targets in the Pacific Ocean, or perhaps even the U.S. mainland.

Kim's New Year's address pushed then President-elect Trump to tweet: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!”

Trump's administration is still adapting to its new policy of pressure and engagement on North Korea. Such efforts toward North Korea have baffled the last three American presidents who watched, with few good options for intervention, as the country became a nuclear state.

In a visit to Seoul in March, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (http://www.latimes.com/topic/business/rex-tillerson-PEBS00029-topic.html) called for a “different approach” for dealing with the North's nuclear ambitions, acknowledging that previous administrations’ efforts to apply pressure and use covert actions have failed. It’s unclear what that approach might be, however, though Tillerson did suggest that military intervention was still an option.

A looming concern for American officials is the extent to which China can — or is willing to — apply additional economic pressure to persuade the North to denuclearize, or perhaps to talk about it. Trump has said that the United States would tackle the problem alone, if needed, a posture questioned by experts who note the issue's regional complexity.

Some in South Korea, whose densely populated capital is within striking range of conventional weapons like artillery, see the recent provocations as a test for China. Its leaders, including President Xi Jinping, have urged restraint.

• Matt Stiles is a freelance journalist based in Seoul who writes for the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, NPR, the Chicago Tribune, The Sydney Morning Herald and the Houston Chronicle, as well as several other newspapers.

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-20170902-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-20170902-story.html)

UPDATED STORY....

from The Washington Post....

North Korea says it successfully tested hydrogen bomb for long-range missile

North Korea has conducted a nuclear test, officials from Japan and South Korea said on Sunday
after an artificial earthquake was detected near the Pyongyang regime's known nuclear test site.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 3:03AM EDT - Sunday, September 03, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1000w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/AFP_S26R5-4651.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/AFP_S26R5-4651.jpg)
North Korea said that it had developed a more advanced nuclear bomb with “great destructive power,” releasing photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting
what his government described as a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

TOKYO — North Korea claimed on Sunday to have detonated a hydrogen bomb that can be mounted on a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States — a claim that, although unverified — will sharply increase tensions between the Pyongyang regime and the rest of the world.

Kim Jong Un personally signed off on the nuclear test, Ri Chun Hee, North Korea's most famous news anchor, said in a special broadcast on Sunday afternoon.

The bomb was a two-stage weapon with a yield that analysts said could make it a “city buster.”

The U.S Geological Survey on Sunday said it had recorded a 6.3 magnitude earthquake exactly at noon Sunday local time, near North Korea's nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, in the county's northeast region. The quake was felt in northern China, with emergency sirens blaring in Yanji, near the North Korean border, according to local media.

South Korean authorities said Sunday's earthquake appeared to be artificial, consistent with a nuclear test. Japan's Foreign Ministry said it has concluded that North Korea did conduct a nuclear test.

It's North Korea's sixth nuclear test, and the first since President Trump was inaugurated.

North Korea's recent nuclear tests have happened exactly on the hour, often on meaningful dates for North Korea or the United States. It is a holiday weekend in the United States, which marks Labor Day on Monday.

A North Korean nuclear test in September of last year registered as a 5.3-magnitude earthquake at 9 a.m. on a national holiday marking the 68th anniversary of the formation of the communist regime by Kim Il Sung, the current leader’s grandfather.

After the test was detected, South Korean President Moon Jae-in called an emergency meeting of his national security council, and the chairman of his Joint Chiefs of Staff put the South Korean military on alert.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he “would not tolerate” another nuclear test.

Analysts had been expecting another nuclear test after North Korea said earlier on Sunday that it had developed a more advanced nuclear bomb with “great destructive power.” But they weren't expecting it so soon after the announcement.

Earlier on Sunday before the test, the state-run Korean Central News Agency released photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting what his government described as a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States.

All the components of the “H-bomb” were “homemade” so North Korea could produce “powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying.

North Korea's latest claim of a hydrogen bomb could not be verified. Although it said that a nuclear test in January last year was of a hydrogen bomb, experts said the seismic waves generated were consistent with an ordinary nuclear device, not a thermonuclear one.

A sixth nuclear test by the North Koreans would be highly inflammatory for the United States and China, as well as North Korea's other neighbors.

China has expressed annoyance at North Korea's frequent ballistic missile launches, but analysts have said China probably would not take serious action — unless there is another nuclear test.

Sunday's events could also change the equation for Washington. Trump has been warning the Kim regime not to test him, warning on Twitter that the American military was “locked and loaded.”

In April, the U.S. Air Force deployed to Japan a WC-135C Constant Phoenix, a four-engine jet designed to detect nuclear tests by collecting air samples. The plane, based on the Japanese island of Okinawa, probably will be used to determine what the North Koreans tested underground.

The aircraft carries about 30 personnel and is one of the arms of the U.S. Atomic Energy Detection System. The jet was used in 2011 to track radioactive activity around the Fukushima nuclear power plant after an earthquake and tsunami hit Japan that year.

• Thomas Gibbons-Neff in Washington contributed to this report.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• GRAPHIC: Eight countries have performed nuclear tests. Most stopped decades ago. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/nuclear-tests)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

‘We'll see,’ Trump says on potentially attacking North Korea
over its nuclear test

He also met with military leaders, his national security team and Vice President Pence
to explore U.S. military options in the Asia-Pacific region.

By PHILIP RUCKER | 3:47PM EDT - Sunday, September 03, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_800w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/National-Politics/Images/AFP_S27N5.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1454w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/National-Politics/Images/AFP_S27N5.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, and President Donald J. Trump.

THE CRISIS with North Korea escalated on Sunday as President Trump reviewed military options and suggested sweeping new economic sanctions in response to the crossing of a dangerous threshold by the isolated nation in detonating its most powerful nuclear weapon ever.

Defying Trump's blunt warnings, North Korea claimed it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States.

Though not yet confirmed, Pyongyang's apparent show of force was extraordinary — the hydrogen weapon is vastly more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki — and drew swift condemnation in capitals around the globe. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the action “absolutely unacceptable.”

In Washington, Trump declared North Korea's latest provocation “very hostile and dangerous to the United States” and would not rule out a retaliatory strike. Asked as he left morning services at St. John's Church whether he was planning to attack North Korea, Trump told reporters, “We'll see.”

Trump sought to assign responsibility for the unfolding crisis to North Korea's neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region, firing off a series of tweets that signaled rifts in U.S. economic and security partnerships that for years have helped isolate and contain North Korea.

It fell to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to offer reassurances to the world that “the commitments among the allies are ironclad.”

Trump, who has been weighing termination of a free-trade agreement with South Korea, scolded the longtime U.S. ally for not being tough enough in managing the northern threat. He tweeted (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/904309527381716992), “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

South Korean President Moon Jae-in chose not to engage in an argument with Trump. He said his government is intent on achieving the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, in concert with “our allies.”

The South Korean military conducted bombing drills at dawn on Monday, practicing ballistic missile strikes on the North Korean nuclear test site at Punggye-ri.

Trump also said on Twitter that he was considering cutting off trade (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/904377075049656322) with any nation doing business with North Korea. China is by far the country's largest trading partner, but it also is the largest U.S. trading partner in terms of goods imported and exported. Such a move would amount to Trump's biggest trade salvo to date and would be nearly impossible to pull off without devastating the U.S. and global economies.

It would also drive up prices on many consumer goods. In 2016, U.S. companies exported $169.3 billion in goods to China and China exported $478.9 billion in goods to the United States.

Trump convened a Sunday afternoon White House meeting of his national security team, also attended by Vice President Pence. Mattis said that at the president's request they reviewed every military option and that Trump concluded the United States is prepared to defend itself and its allies.

“Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam, or our allies will be met with a massive military response — a response both effective and overwhelming,” said Mattis, who was flanked by General Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Mattis added, “We are not looking for the total annihilation of a country, namely North Korea, but as I said, we have many options to do so.”

The U.N. Security Council, whose members voted unanimously last month to pass a package of sanctions against North Korea, called an emergency meeting for Monday morning at the urging of the United States, Japan, South Korea and France, according to Nikki Haley (https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/904409189455470592), the United States' U.N. ambassador.

Trump spoke on Sunday by phone with Abe, and the two leaders confirmed the mutual defense commitments between the United States and Japan, according to the White House.

“President Trump reaffirmed the commitment of the United States to defending our homeland, territories, and allies using the full range of diplomatic, conventional, and nuclear capabilities at our disposal,” read a statement from the office of White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Trump's response to North Korea's weekend nuclear test — its sixth ever, but the first since Trump took office — was subdued relative to his bellicose war of words last month with that country's 33-year-old leader, Kim Jong Un.

In a pair of tweets issued on Sunday morning, Trump wrote: “North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States … North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.”

Nearly four weeks ago, Trump warned Kim that his continued nuclear provocations would be “met with fire and fury (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/08/trump-vows-north-korea-will-be-met-with-fire-and-fury-if-threats-continue) like the world has never seen.”

Initially, North Korea seemed to back down from its threat of a nuclear strike in Guam, where many U.S. military personnel are stationed. Trump said of Kim at an August 22nd rally in Phoenix, “I respect the fact that, I believe, he is starting to respect us.”

That assessment turned out to be premature.

“North Korea right now is the most dangerous place on the face of the planet,” Senator Ted Cruz (Republican-Texas) said on ABC's “This Week”. Cruz said of Kim, “He is radical, he is unpredictable, he is extreme, and he is getting more and more dangerous weapons.”

General Michael Hayden, a former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency, warned that Trump's tweets could foul up his otherwise respectable plan to get tough on North Korea.

“You gotta watch the tweets,” Hayden said on CNN's “State of the Union”, “Mr. President, this is not a manhood issue; this is a national security issue. Don't let your pride get in the way of wise policy here.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, interviewed on “Fox News Sunday”, said he intended to “draft a sanctions package to send to the president for his strong consideration that anybody who wants to do trade or business with them is prevented from doing trade or business with us.”

“We are going to work with our allies, we'll work with China, but people need to cut off North Korea economically,” Mnuchin added. “This is unacceptable behavior.”

The tumult in the region comes amid escalating economic tensions with South Korea, a long-standing economic and diplomatic partner of the United States. Trump is considering withdrawing from a free-trade agreement with the country, in keeping with his campaign promise.

The move would end what Trump considers unfair trade competition from other countries. But the president's advisers have cautioned that a withdrawal from the agreement would strain ties with South Korea amid the mounting North Korea nuclear crisis.

Asked by Fox anchor Chris Wallace whether Trump would pull the United States out of the agreement, Mnuchin said, “The president has made clear that where we have trade deficits with countries, we're going to renegotiate those deals.” He added that there have been “no decisions” yet with regard to the trade accord with South Korea.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (Republican-Tennessee) said he spoke on Sunday morning with White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly about the situation.

“We stand ready to work with the administration to support a comprehensive strategy that not only places an emphasis on deterrence but also empowers our allies and partners in the region, who must do far more to confront this threat,” Corker said in a statement (https://twitter.com/SenBobCorker/status/904359253099589633).

Senator Jeff Flake (Republican-Arizona) acknowledged that “there are no good options” to manage the North Korea crisis but argued that “harsh rhetoric” does not appear to help slow Kim's nuclear program.

Flake said that ending the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement would be inadvisable.

“I don't think that that would be good in any circumstances,” Flake said on CNN. “Now it's particularly troubling, given what South Korea is faced with. I think we need to do more trade, not less, and withdrawing from trade agreements is a very troubling sign.”

• Anna Fifield in Tokyo and Karoun Demirjian, Damian Paletta and Hamza Shaban in Washington contributed to this report.

• Philip Rucker is the White House Bureau Chief for The Washington Post. He previously has covered Congress, the Obama White House, and the 2012 and 2016 presidential campaigns. He joined The Post in 2005 as a local news reporter.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Trump says ‘we'll see’ about attacking North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/37d74ea4-90c5-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_video.html)

• VIDEO: Trump sharply condemns North Korea's latest nuclear test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/6e63d37a-90b6-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_video.html)

• VIDEO: Why does North Korea hate the U.S.? Look to the Korean War. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/c4fe5372-4237-11e7-b29f-f40ffced2ddb_video.html)

• In latest test, North Korea detonates its most powerful nuclear device yet (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-latest-test-north-korea-detonates-its-most-powerful-nuclear-device-yet/2017/09/03/4c5202ea-90b4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

• Trump preparing withdrawal from South Korea trade deal, a move opposed by top aides (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal)

• Trump reiterates warning to N. Korea: ‘Fire and fury’ may not have been ‘tough enough’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-escalates-rhetoric-on-threat-from-north-korea/2017/08/10/ff49e018-7ded-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-north-koreas-nuclear-test-very-hostile-and-dangerous-scolds-south-korea/2017/09/03/a1429980-90a1-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-north-koreas-nuclear-test-very-hostile-and-dangerous-scolds-south-korea/2017/09/03/a1429980-90a1-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Seoul tries to ignore Trump's criticism:
‘They worry he's kind of nuts,’ one observer says

South Koreans are puzzled by president’s “appeasement” jab and his attitude toward negotiations.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 7:22PM EDT - Sunday, September 03, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_975w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/2017-09-03T112158Z_1695693088_RC18DC183100_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-4564.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Images/2017-09-03T112158Z_1695693088_RC18DC183100_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-4564.jpg)
North Koreans watch a news report showing North Korea's nuclear test on a screen in Pyongyang, North Korea. — Photograph: Kyodo/Reuters.

TOKYO — South Korea's president tried late on Sunday to dismiss talk of a dispute between Seoul and Washington over how to deal with North Korea following its sixth nuclear test, after President Trump criticized the South Korean approach as “appeasement”.

Moon Jae-in's office said that his government would continue to work towards peaceful denuclearization after tweets and actions from Trump that have left South Koreans scratching their heads at why the American president is attacking an ally at such a sensitive time.

As if to underline Seoul's willingness to be tough, the South Korean military conducted bombing drills at dawn on Monday, practicing ballistic missile strikes on the North Korean nuclear test site at Punggye-ri.

The South Korean military calculated the distance to the site and practiced having F-15 jet fighters accurately hit the target, the joint chiefs of staff said on Monday morning.

“This drill was conducted to send a strong warning to North Korea for its sixth nuclear test,” it said.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_750w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Graphics/2300-northKoreanMissileChart-0903.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/03/Foreign/Graphics/2300-northKoreanMissileChart-0903.jpg)

After North Korea conducted its nuclear test on Sunday, Trump tweeted (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/904309527381716992): “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

Trump did not talk to Moon on the phone during Sunday — in stark contrast to the two calls he had with Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan and a leader who has proven much more willing to agree with his American counterpart. This will worsen anxieties in Seoul that Tokyo is seen as “the favorite ally,” analysts said.

Moon, who was elected in May, advocated engagement with North Korea but has also acknowledged the need for pressure to bring the Pyongyang regime back to talks. He has also come around to an agreement (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/south-korea-in-a-shift-wants-more-military-firepower-against-north-korea/2017/07/29/9fe5e678-7427-11e7-803f-a6c989606ac7_story.html) between his predecessor and the U.S. military to deploy an anti-missile system in South Korea.

Trump's tweet was widely reported across South Korean media, and Moon's office responded to the tweet with a measured statement on Sunday night.

“South Korea is a country that experienced a fratricidal war. The destruction of war should not be repeated in this land,” it said. “We will not give up and will continue to push for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through peaceful means working together with our allies.”

Trump's twitter jab came amid news that the U.S. president has instructed advisers to prepare to withdraw from a free-trade agreement with South Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal) — a move that is resolutely opposed by South Korea and one that would undermine the two countries' economic alliance.

Analysts said Trump's actions were puzzling.

“It's strange to see Trump going after South Korea more aggressively than he's going after China, especially since China also thinks that dialogue is central to solving this problem,” said John Delury (https://twitter.com/JohnDelury), a professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

In an earlier tweet, Trump had said that China “was trying to help,” although he added it was “with little success.”

Delury said that the “passive aggressive” tone of Trump's tweets suggested that Moon had been standing up to the American president during their previous phone calls. They spoke on Friday after North Korea sent a missile over Japan.

“It sounds like Moon is saying, ‘We're going to have to talk to these guys’ — which is true — and Trump is frustrated,” Delury said, noting that the latest tweet seemed to address Moon directly, with its “like I told you.”

Trump's tweet was even more puzzling, analysts say, because Trump himself — both as a candidate and as president — had repeatedly suggested he would be willing to talk to North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un.

On the campaign trail, Trump said that he would be happy to have a burger in a boardroom with Kim, and in recent months he has called Kim a “smart cookie” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/05/01/trump-takes-admiration-for-tyrants-to-next-level-says-he-would-be-honored-to-meet-with-kim-jong-un) and has said he would be “honored” to meet him.

South Korea's response overall to Trump's recent pronouncements has been much more muted than its past explosions against its protector — a sign that they know Trump is a different kind of president.

“They think they're dealing with an unreasonable partner and complaining about it isn't going to help — in fact, it might make it worse,” said David Straub, a former State Department official who dealt with both Koreas and recently published a book about anti-Americanism in South Korea (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/1931368384).

“Opinion polls show South Koreans have one of the lowest rates of regard for Trump in the world and they don't consider him to be a reasonable person,” Straub said. “In fact, they worry he's kind of nuts, but they still want the alliance.”

On the Sunday talk shows in the United States, there was plenty of criticism of Trump's words.

“You gotta watch the tweets,” Michael Hayden, a retired Air Force general and former head of the National Security Agency and the CIA who has been critical of Trump, said on CNN's “State of the Union”.

“I think we had an unforced error over the weekend when we brought up the free trade agreement with our South Korea friends on whom we have to cooperate…. It's wrong on the merits, and it's certainly not integrated into a broader approach to northeast Asia,” Hayden said. He served as NSA director from 1999 to 2005 and led the CIA from 2006 until 2009.

Representative Adam B. Schiff (Democrat-California), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, also questioned Trump's decision to admonish South Korea when the nation appears to be facing a growing threat.

“We need to be working hand in hand with South Korea, and with Japan,” he said, also on CNN. “Why we would want to show divisions with South Korea makes no sense at all.”

Even before the nuclear test, Trump's approach to South Korea, an ally since the end of World War II, had been under question. Analysts were asking why Trump would rip up the free-trade agreement with South Korea at all, rather than revising it, let alone at a time when a united front was needed in the region.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that “no decisions” had been made but that trade deals must be in the United States' economic interest.

“The president has made clear that where we have trade deficits with countries, we're going to renegotiate those deals,” Mnuchin said on Fox News.

• Yoonjung Seo in Seoul and Hamza Shaban in Washington contributed to this report.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Trump's tweets include jab at ally South Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-tweets-include-jab-at-ally-south-korea/2017/09/03/5bad6670-90c4-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

• Don’t be surprised by North Korea's missiles. Kim Jong Un is doing what he said he would. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/dont-be-surprised-by-north-koreas-missiles-theyre-doing-what-they-said-they-would/2017/08/31/e2fb9ebc-8e26-11e7-a2b0-e68cbf0b1f19_story.html)

• Priest who's visited North Korea more than 50 times wonders if he can go again (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/priest-whos-visited-north-korea-more-than-50-times-wonders-if-he-can-go-again/2017/08/29/73df6c92-8bd4-11e7-a2b0-e68cbf0b1f19_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-latest-test-north-korea-detonates-its-most-powerful-nuclear-device-yet/2017/09/03/4c5202ea-90b4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-latest-test-north-korea-detonates-its-most-powerful-nuclear-device-yet/2017/09/03/4c5202ea-90b4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea defies predictions — again — with early grasp
of weapons milestone

Many experts thought Kim’s long-sought H-bomb was months, perhaps years, away.

By JOBY WARRICK | 8:15PM EDT - Sunday, September 03, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_985w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/04/National-Security/Images/AFP_S28KU-0730.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/04/National-Security/Images/AFP_S28KU-0730.jpg)
Residents watch a big video screen on Mirae Scientists Street in Pyongyang showing newsreader Ri Chun-Hee as she announces that the country
has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb on September 3rd, 2017. — Photograph: Kim Won-Jin/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

THE DEVICE that shook the mountains over the Punggye-ri test site on Sunday represented a quantum leap for North Korea's nuclear capability, producing an explosion at least five times greater than the country's previous tests and easily powerful enough to devastate a large city.

And if studies confirm that the bomb was a thermonuclear weapon — as North Korea claims — it would be a triumph of a different scale: a major technical milestone reached well ahead of predictions, putting the world's most destructive force in the hands of the country's 33-year-old autocrat.

The feat instantly erased lingering skepticism about Pyongyang's technical capabilities and brought the prospect of nuclear-tipped North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles a step closer to reality, U.S. analysts and weapons experts said. Many predicted that a miniaturized version of the presumed thermonuclear bomb would soon be in North Korea's grasp, and that it probably already exists.

“North Korea has achieved a capability to wipe out a big chunk of any major city,” said Sue Mi Terry, a former senior analyst on North Korea at the CIA and now managing director for Korea at the Bower Group Asia. “If the North didn't test a hydrogen bomb, as they said they did this time around, they will get there very soon.”

The blast, at exactly noon local time in the country's northeastern mountains, produced seismic waves equivalent to a 6.3-magnitude earthquake, or 10 times as strong as the country's last nuclear test, which occurred a year ago this week. A conclusive analysis will take days or weeks, but weapons experts said the sheer force of the explosion is highly suggestive of a thermonuclear bomb. Sometimes called hydrogen bombs or H-bombs, these second-generation nuclear devices entered U.S. and Soviet arsenals in the 1950s, threatening adversaries with a vastly greater destructive force compared with atomic bombs dropped on Japan in the final days of World War II.

Because of the H-bomb's relatively complex two-stage design, many experts thought it would be months, or perhaps years, before North Korea's scientists could master the necessary technology. When Pyongyang boasted last year that it had tested a thermonuclear device, many U.S. experts dismissed the claim as propaganda.

By early Sunday, Washington time, the skepticism had mostly evaporated.

“There's little doubt in my mind,” said James M. Acton, a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. “North Korea has been hinting for a while that it was working on an H-bomb — even apart from the photos it released last night — so this should not come as a huge surprise. But it does represent a significant technological advance.”

The apparently successful test came hours after leader Kim Jong Un appeared on state-run television with what appeared to be a prototype of a new North Korean thermonuclear bomb, in a remarkable display of his confidence in the capabilities of his country's weapons engineers. Given other recent technical gains in producing long-range missiles and miniaturized warheads, U.S. experts said there is little doubt about North Korea's ability to eventually master all the steps needed to send a nuclear-tipped missile halfway around the world.

Although it is not known for certain that North Korea can build a miniaturized thermonuclear warhead that can fit on a missile, Acton said, “I believe we have to assume it can.”

Peter Zimmerman, a nuclear physicist and former chief scientist for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said initial calculations based on seismic readings suggested a device with a yield of up to 200 kilotons — a destructive force 13 times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945, and probably “too big for a pure fission bomb.” Moreover, the prototype displayed by Kim on the eve of the test “pretty well shows they know the essentials of a thermonuclear device design,” he said.

Several other nuclear experts noted that the vaguely peanut-shaped metallic device shown on North Korean television bore features that were broadly consistent with a two-stage hydrogen bomb, although it did not resemble any weapon in past or current U.S. arsenals.

“This was a major step forward for the [North Korean] scientists and engineers,” Zimmerman said. “Their first test was a dud; the next couple were very low yield. Since then, their yields have steadily gone up. But this is a discontinuity indicating the introduction of new technology.”

The technical hurdles appear to be falling at a surprising clip, considering North Korea's economic backwardness and diplomatic isolation. Yet, Pyongyang's progress with nuclear weapons roughly parallels that of other countries that developed the same weapons decades ago, said Jeffrey Lewis, founder of Arms Control Wonk, an influential blog focused on nuclear weapons proliferation.

“If you look at the United States, the Soviet Union and China, by their fifth nuclear tests they were all well on their way to thermonuclear weapons,” Lewis said. “There is no reason to think that North Korea couldn't do this. The materials are pretty straightforward, so that's not a problem. In the past, the trick was the concept. But you also need tests and data to understand how the materials behave.”

For long-time North Korea watchers, Sunday's test was another in a succession of technical surprises. Exactly two months earlier, on July 4th, Pyongyang launched what many experts think was the country's first intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of reaching Alaska and perhaps cities in the Midwestern United States. Weeks later, U.S. intelligence officials formally concluded that North Korea is able to build miniaturized nuclear warheads that can fit inside the country's long-range missiles.

In each case, North Koreans announced the achievement of the new milestone well in advance — often eliciting scoffs from experts — before they offered proof. Given the rapid pace of North Korea's advances, analysts can no longer afford to dismiss Kim's claims as mere propaganda or empty boasts, said Joshua Pollack, an expert on nuclear and missile proliferation.

“What they show us is going to be the real deal, or very true to life,” said Pollack, a senior researcher with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, California. “Given the closeness in time between the exhibition of the device and the actual test, I wouldn't be surprised if that was the actual device” shown on state-run television the day before the blast.

“They have very good reasons to show exactly what they've got, because they're trying to enhance their credibility,” Pollack added. “I give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.”

• Joby Warrick joined The Washington Post's national staff in 1996. He has covered national security, the environment and the Middle East and currently writes about terrorism. He is the author of two books, including 2015's “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS" (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/0804168938), which was awarded a 2016 Pulitzer Prize for non-fiction.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL: Fire, fury — and confusion (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fire-fury--and-confusion/2017/09/03/fedd4d7a-90be-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

• Facing North Korea, Washington and Seoul must avoid war with each other (http://)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions--again--with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions--again--with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Have we reached a point of no return?

With a nuclear battle of nitwits and our attention flitting about at will, it seems worse is yet to come.

By KATHLEEN PARKER | 7:22PM EDT - Tuesday, September 05, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1035w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/05/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Koreas_Tension_War_Games_77206-dcb03-2294.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/05/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Koreas_Tension_War_Games_77206-dcb03-2294.jpg)
A man in Seoul watches a television showing President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. — Photograph: Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press.

IT HAS become axiomatic that when President Trump says or does something over the top or below the belt, beware the unseen.

His cunning use of distraction turns red herrings green with envy.

The template works like this: Trump says something outrageous that drives Washington's Bubble Belt wild. The media leaps to outrage while bookers haul in “experts” to intone the obvious in exchange for makeup and a limo.

Next, the same talking heads, commentators and columnists lament the time wasted on such trivia as, say, first lady Melania Trump's wearing stiletto heels (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2017/08/29/there-was-no-pretense-about-melania-trumps-heels-but-sometimes-a-little-pretense-helps) to visit victims of Hurricane Harvey. Critics and the media itself lament that Important Issues are being ignored while attention is turned on, oh, whether Ivanka and Jared are being snubbed by the D.C. in-crowd (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/08/jared-kushner-ivanka-trump-repelled-by-washington-elite), such as it is. The point is taken, but one should note that nothing is ever being ignored by everyone. Or, rather, everything of import is being monitored and commented upon by someone.

But then, broadcast and cable producers know — and Trump knows deeply — that most Americans don't really care that much about what they insist they care about. A few headlines will get most through the morning. Twitter and Facebook keep the curious plied with updates, and by day's end, who really wants to plunge into tax reform?

It is true, nonetheless, that when Trump needs time to fidget with something that actually matters, he tosses a dead fish into the Dasani tank and waits for the media herdlings to begin their march toward the trough.

Temporarily spared the spotlight, Trump fluffs the thatched nest atop his head and invites his brain to hatch some very bad ideas. Thus, we seem to be on the brink of a nuclear confrontation with North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions--again--with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html). Remember when we used to worry about Trump having his finger on the nuclear launch button? Square that. When the other antagonist is North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, the nightmare can't be dismissed as the twisted hankie of the persistently worried.

Never have two less qualified “leaders” been so endowed with such devastating power without the requisite impulse control upon which living civilizations depend. Not to mention that these two nuke hecklers are unmercifully coifed to resemble cartoon characters so that we, the soberly sane, are left to ponder our face-melting demise as a clown showdown between two renegade circus performers. The horror movie “It” (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1396484), featuring a diabolical clown and opening this week, couldn't pay for better timing.

Meanwhile, one seeks cooler comfort in the memory of the Cuban missile crisis between Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev and President John F. Kennedy. At least these men were capable of finding an alternative to worst-case scenarios. There seems to be no such inclination on North Korea's part or, frankly, on Trump's. Unless our reality star-in-chief holds his sagacity in reserve for special occasions such as this, there's little reason to assume or hope he'll diplomatically temper his counterpart's apparent need to demonstrate his manhood.

In July, Trump was typically eloquent in describing his approach (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/344591-trump-well-handle-north-korea) to thwarting disaster:

“We'll handle North Korea. We'll be able to handle North Korea. It will be handled. We handle everything.”

Whew, that.

As further insult to reason, this isn't even a conflict over something at least historically rational, such as the now nearly charming contest between communism and Americanism. No battle of wits, the U.S.-North Korea stare-down is more accurately a battle of nitwits who seem to think threatening nuclear holocaust and mutual destruction is a contest to see who has bigger hands.

No one would suggest that Trump is responsible for all the nail biting these past few months or that Kim's missile and nuclear tests aren't deadly serious. But Trump surely has exacerbated matters with his “fire and fury” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/08/trump-vows-north-korea-will-be-met-with-fire-and-fury-if-threats-continue) rhetoric. The goading language of ultimatum, more than a bluffing tactic, is an inflammatory agent such that the possible moves inexorably toward the inevitable. U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the president's toughest-talking Cabinet member, recently said (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-claims-h-bomb-test-experts-urge-trump-talks-n798431): “We have kicked the can down the road long enough. There is no more road left.”

Perhaps Kim might argue the same. Meanwhile, a can-kicking strategy (i.e., containment and diplomacy) seems a not-irrational substitute for mutual annihilation. Have we reached a point of no return? Will the president of the United States fire Kim, or will he invent some new distraction (staffers: Watch your backs) while he becomes a stealth, wartime leader?

Stay tuned. But first: What will Melania wear to the presidential bunker?

• Kathleen Parker writes a twice-weekly column on politics and culture for The Washington Post. She received the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary In 2010.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• The Washington Post's View: There are only two ways forward on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/there-are-only-two-ways-forward-on-north-korea/2017/08/11/de8f0cf2-7ea8-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

• Jackson Diehl: Why aren't we talking about regime change in North Korea? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/why-arent-we-talking-about-regime-change-in-north-korea/2017/08/31/d36b0b00-8d9e-11e7-91d5-ab4e4bb76a3a_story.html)

• David Ignatius: In dealing with North Korea, Trump needs allies — not bombast (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-trump-would-mobilize-against-north-korea--and-how-to-avoid-it/2017/08/10/c8667582-7e08-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

• Jennifer Rubin: It's not clear what to do about North Korea. But it's clear what not to do. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/08/09/its-not-clear-what-to-do-about-north-korea-but-its-clear-what-not-to-do)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/have-we-reached-a-point-of-no-return/2017/09/05/22e7bf2a-9272-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/have-we-reached-a-point-of-no-return/2017/09/05/22e7bf2a-9272-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

History shows us how calamitous the North Korea crisis could become

Wars often result from bellicose rhetoric and bad information.

By DAVID IGNATIUS | 7:22PM EDT - Tuesday, September 05, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1000w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/05/Editorial-Opinion/Images/23germansA.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/05/Editorial-Opinion/Images/23germansA.jpg)
German soldiers on the front lines during World War I. — Photograph: Library of Congress/National Audio-Visual Conservation Center.

WHEN today's historians look at the confrontation between the United States and North Korea, they're likely to hear echoes of ultimatums, bluffs and botched messages that accompanied conflicts of the past, often with catastrophic consequences.

“The one thing that's certain when you choose war as a policy is that you don't know how it will end,” says Mark Stoler (https://www.uvm.edu/~history/?Page=faculty/stoler.php&SM=employeesubmenu.html), a diplomatic and military historian at the University of Vermont. This fog of uncertainty should be a caution for policymakers now in dealing with North Korea.

History teaches that wars often result from bellicose rhetoric and bad information. Sometimes leaders fail to act strongly enough to deter aggression, as at Munich in 1938. But more often, as in August 1914, conflict results from a cascade of errors that produces an outcome that no one would have wanted.

World War I is probably the clearest example of how miscalculation can produce a global disaster. As Stoler recounted to me in an interview, each player was caught in “the cult of the offensive,” believing that his nation's aims could be fulfilled in a short war, at relatively low cost.

It was a tragic sequence: After the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand (http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/archduke-franz-ferdinand-assassinated), Austria asked for Germany's support against Serbia; Kaiser Wilhelm foolishly offered a “blank check” (http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-gives-austria-hungary-blank-check-assurance). Russia, Serbia's ally, began mobilizing forces; Germany countered with its own mobilization, as did France, and then Britain.

In the nuclear age, the costs of miscalculation are much greater, but good sense (and luck) have prevailed, so far. Evan Thomas explains in “Ike's Bluff” (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0316091030) that President Dwight D. Eisenhower appeared close to the brink in the Korean War in 1953. “If the Chinese and North Koreans failed to come to terms, American diplomats were to broadly hint, the United States would expand the war with nuclear weapons,” he writes (https://books.google.com/books?id=UAO0NH5hp-wC&lpg=RA1-PT4&ots=V9S1P2MbfD&dq=If%20the%20Chinese%20and%20North%20Koreans%20failed%20to%20come%20to%20terms%2C%20American%20diplomats%20were%20to%20broadly%20hint%2C%20the%20United%20States%20would%20expand%20the%20war%20with%20nuclear%20weapons&pg=RA1-PT4#v=onepage&q=If%20the%20Chinese%20and%20North%20Koreans%20failed%20to%20come%20to%20terms,%20American%20diplomats%20were%20to%20broadly%20hint,%20the%20United%20States%20would%20expand%20the%20war%20with%20nuclear%20weapons&f=false). Whether Eisenhower would have dropped the bomb is anyone's guess; amazingly, it's not clear his ominous messages were even passed on or understood.

Eisenhower played chicken again in 1958, when Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev gave him an ultimatum (https://www.archives.gov/files/research/foreign-policy/cold-war/1961-berlin-crisis/overview/berlin-wall-overview.pdf) that the United States must remove its troops from Berlin. Ike promised his aides that he was “all in” against this threat. But soon after, he invited the Soviet leader to visit the United States, and after an intimate weekend with the president's grandchildren at his farm in Gettysburg (https://www.nps.gov/nr/twhp/wwwlps/lessons/29ike/29ike.htm), Khrushchev backed off.

The Cuban missile crisis is the ultimate moment of nuclear brinkmanship. But this story is murkier than it's sometimes described, says Philip Zelikow, co-author with Graham Allison of “Essence of Decision” (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0321013492), the classic study of the event. President John F. Kennedy made an ultimatum to Khrushchev on October 27th, 1962 (http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct27), that averted war. But that was only after Khrushchev ignored a September 13th warning against putting nuclear weapons in Cuba. Would Kennedy really have gone to war if Khrushchev hadn't backed down? He told a Navy commander later that he would have started combat operations on October 30th.

Modern history shows how wars are interwoven with promises and ultimatums, some honored and others ignored, Zelikow explains. Germany offered the 1916 “Sussex Pledge” (https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/sussex_pledge) that its submarines wouldn't attack American ships and then did so anyway, drawing the United States into war. China warned in 1965 that an American invasion of North Vietnam would bring Chinese intervention, and U.S. troops stayed below the demilitarized zone. America advised Iraq in 1991 that unless its troops left Kuwait, the United States would attack. The Iraqis didn't, and America did. And in a folly whose consequences persist to this day, America invaded Iraq in 2003 because of false intelligence that it had weapons of mass destruction.

How should we apply history to the current standoff with North Korea? First, messaging is critically important. With so much at stake, it's crazy for President Trump to be sending sensitive signals about war and peace in 140-character public tweets. Second, evidence suggests that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is a genuinely dangerous risk-taker. U.S. officials calculate that he has conducted more than 80 missile or bomb tests (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-29/north-korea-japan-missile-launch-there-are-no-easy-options/8852456) since becoming ruler in 2011, compared with just 20 under his father.

Would the impulsive Kim ever be ready for negotiations with Trump? So far, he has spurned peace overtures from the United States, answering American calls for restraint with three more tests. North Korea claims he's acting defensively, provoked by joint U.S. military exercises with South Korea last month.

Is Kim's position a charade? Let's find out. No new U.S.-South Korean exercises are scheduled until next March. That offers a six-month window to push Pyongyang to explore options. As history shows, the consequences of making a mistake in war are calamitous.

• David Ignatius writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column for The Washington Post and contributes to the PostPartisan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan) blog.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• The Washington Post's View: Fire, fury and confusion (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fire-fury--and-confusion/2017/09/03/fedd4d7a-90be-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

• Michael Gerson: A huge question for Trump's North Korea crisis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-huge-question-for-trumps-north-korea-crisis/2017/08/10/f2b1ed4e-7df4-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html)

• Michael Dobbs: What Trump should know about the Cuban missile crisis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jfk-rose-up-to-the-nuclear-challenge-can-trump/2017/08/09/23345e40-7d21-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/history-shows-us-how-calamitous-the-north-korea-crisis-could-become/2017/09/05/a7263d38-9282-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/history-shows-us-how-calamitous-the-north-korea-crisis-could-become/2017/09/05/a7263d38-9282-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Trump's zigzagging approach to North Korea veers
toward military options

U.S. approach to rising threat has included carrots, sticks and lots of tweets.

By ANNE GEARAN | 6:54PM EDT - Wednesday, September 06, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/National-Politics/Images/Trump_North_Korea_80110-6f338-3938.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/National-Politics/Images/Trump_North_Korea_80110-6f338-3938.jpg)
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, left, walks with Joint Chiefs Chairman Joseph Dunford, right, to speak to members of the media
regarding the escalating crisis in North Korea's nuclear threats outside the West Wing of the White House on Sunday.
— Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press.

PRESIDENT TRUMP's approach to the rapidly rising threat from North Korea has veered from empathy for the country's bellicose leader to finger-pointing at China to quick-tempered threats of possible military action.

The administration's goals and tactics have also shifted, from isolating North Korea to reassuring leader Kim Jong Un that the United States won't overthrow him to threats of, as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis put it, “annihilation”.

Before Pyongyang's sixth and largest nuclear test on Sunday, Trump had said U.S. military options were “locked and loaded” should North Korea behave rashly.

On Wednesday, Trump sounded subdued and statesmanlike.

“We're going to see what happens,” Trump said when asked whether he is considering military action against North Korea. “We'll see what happens. Certainly, that's not our first choice, but we will see what happens.”

While Trump has accused his predecessors of not being tough on North Korea, the zigzagging U.S. response and the president's willingness to talk openly about a military attack could be creating its own set of problems by raising the price of an eventual deal and probably making negotiations impossible for now, Asia security analysts said.

“Kim Jong Un is not begging for war,” said Daniel Russel, who was the State Department's top diplomat for Asia until earlier this year. “What he wants is not conflict but some kind of major concession” from the United States and its allies South Korea and Japan.

Kim, in contrast to Trump, has been relentlessly consistent.

During Trump's nearly eight months in office, North Korea's leader has, as promised, accelerated development of a more powerful nuclear weapon and long-range missiles that could deliver a warhead to U.S. shores. The goal, Asia security specialists said, is to cut off U.S. military options and force the United States and the rest of the world to make concessions.

“Kim Jong Un has a very scrutable game plan,” said Russel, now a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Leverage his nuclear threat and monetize it.”

That strategy predates Trump and U.S. officials have long complained about a shakedown for years.

But Trump's response has been far different than recent administrations' and, at times, has seemed more off the cuff than the result of deliberative planning.

He recently mused about cutting off all trade with nations that do business with North Korea, a practical impossibility and a proposal at odds with the U.S. strategy of engaging China and other nations in international economic sanctions against North Korea.

Trump spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday and told reporters that the 45-minute conversation about North Korea was productive.

“President Xi would like to do something. We'll see whether or not he can do it,” Trump said. “But we will not be putting up with what's happening in North Korea. I believe that President Xi agrees with me 100 percent. He doesn't want to see what's happening there, either.”

The muddled U.S. message includes offers of diplomacy from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and threats of additional economic sanctions from U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and of a “massive military response” from Mattis.

Haley told the U.N. Security Council at an emergency session on Monday that Kim is “begging for war”.

Trump had appeared to endorse diplomatic outreach before writing it off as pointless in a Twitter message on August 30th.

“Talking is not the answer!” he wrote then.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_800w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-03/AP/Trump_North_Korea_88792-a8441.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-03/AP/Trump_North_Korea_88792-a8441.jpg)
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis speaks news media outside the West Wing of the White House on Sunday.
— Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press.

Democrats have criticized Trump's handling of the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, arguing a more measured approach is needed.

The president of the United States needs to be on the phone conducting diplomacy, not these hot and cold tweets,” Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat-Maryland) said on Tuesday in an interview with MSNBC. “We want to work with China, and we want to get them to put pressure on North Korea. On one hand, he tweets that his best buddy is President Xi, and the next day he tweets something very different.”

China is the most important partner in making any economic penalties stick. Beijing worked with the United States to approve tough new export bans on North Korea last month, a strong signal of Chinese irritation with a regime it protects but cannot fully control. Beijing has signaled opposition to new penalties, potentially including an oil embargo, that the United States is now seeking through the United Nations.

“The time has come to exhaust all diplomatic means to end this crisis, and that means quickly enacting the strongest possible measures here in the U.N. Security Council,” Haley said on Monday.

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders emphasized pressure and military options.

“Look, we've been clear about what our priorities are: that now is not the time for us to spend a lot of time focused on talking with North Korea, but putting all measures of pressure that we can,” she said. “All options are on the table, and we’re going to continue to keep them on the table until we get the results that we're looking for.”

It is not clear where Tillerson's diplomatic overture stands. A week before North Korea's latest nuclear test, of a hydrogen bomb, Tillerson told Fox News Sunday that the United States hoped Kim would take the “different path” that negotiations could offer.

“We're going to continue our peaceful pressure campaign as I have described it, working with allies, working with China as well to see if we can bring the regime in Pyongyang to the negotiating table,” he said in the August 27th interview.

Tillerson has gone so far as to directly address North Korea, and offer assurances that the United States does not plan to invade.

“We are not your enemy,” he said on August 1st.

Since then, North Korea has twice test-fired missiles and conducted its most powerful nuclear test yet. And at least until Wednesday, Trump had increasingly emphasized military responses.

He referred only to military advisers and White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, a retired Marine general, when tweeting about a White House emergency session on North Korea on Sunday.

“I will be meeting General Kelly, General Mattis and other military leaders at the White House to discuss North Korea,” Trump wrote.

Mattis later told reporters the session was a “small-group national security meeting” with Trump and Vice President Pence.

Any threat to the United States or its allies “will be met with a massive military response — a response both effective and overwhelming,” Mattis said on Sunday.

He advised Kim to heed international warnings to stand down, but he did not call for talks or repeat earlier warnings that he sees no military solution to the North Korean problem.

“We are not looking to the total annihilation of a country — namely, North Korea,” Mattis said. “But, as I said, we have many options to do so.”

• Anne Gearan is a national politics correspondent for The Washington Post.

__________________________________________________________________________

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-zigzagging-approach-to-north-korea-veers-toward-military-options/2017/09/06/44763718-9315-11e7-aace-04b862b2b3f3_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-zigzagging-approach-to-north-korea-veers-toward-military-options/2017/09/06/44763718-9315-11e7-aace-04b862b2b3f3_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Will Trump lower the nuclear bar?

Eisenhower had the wisdom to be appalled by nuclear weapons. Not Trump.

By GEORGE F. WILL | 7:37PM EDT - Wednesday, September 06, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-09-05T024954Z_1445890929_RC1E29663C40_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-ICBM-2326.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-09-05T024954Z_1445890929_RC1E29663C40_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-ICBM-2326.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Reuters.

THE U.S. Air Force “sniffer plane” was collecting air samples off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula on September 3rd, 1949, when it gathered evidence of radioactivity (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc737111/m2/1/high_res_d/807939.pdf), confirming that the war-shattered Soviet Union had tested a nuclear device. The Soviets' August 29th, 1949, test (https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/29-august-1949-first-soviet-nuclear-test) had come faster than expected.

Dating from the detonation at the Trinity Site in New Mexico on July 16th, 1945 (https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/16-july-1945-trinity-worlds-first-nuclear-test), the basic science of nuclear explosions is more than 72 years old (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-is-the-future-of-the-air-force/2017/07/19/ba45d742-6bf0-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html) — three years older than the North Korean nation. Ballistic missile technology is more than 60 years old. The problems of miniaturizing warheads for mounting on missiles, and of ensuring the warheads' survival en route to targets, are not sufficient to stymie a nation — consider Pakistan, whose annual per capita income is less than $2,000 (https://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2017/05/pakistans-per-capita-income-has-seen-growth-and-heres-why) — that is determined to have a nuclear arsenal.

North Korea has one and is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles faster than expected and with ostentatious indifference to U.S. proclamations. On January 2nd, President-elect Donald Trump scampered up the rhetorical escalation ladder, unlimbering his heavy artillery — an exclamation point — to tweet about North Korea's promised ICBM test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-tweets-a-red-line-for-north-korea/2017/02/08/ca2b9c3c-ed74-11e6-9662-6eedf1627882_story.html): “It won't happen!” It did. North Korea's most audacious act, firing a missile over Japan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html), came seven days after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson praised North Korea's “restraint” (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-tillerson/tillerson-sees-possible-path-to-north-korea-dialogue-in-near-future-idUSKCN1B2271).

Pyongyang's “signaling” does not involve abstruse semiotics: It wants a global nuclear reach, and as The Economist magazine says (https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21725768-there-are-no-good-options-curb-kim-jong-un-blundering-war-would-be-worst-how), the world's unpalatable options are the improbable (productive negotiations), the feeble (more sanctions) and the terrifying (military pre-emption). Concerning the latter, there is no bright line, but there is a distinction to be drawn, however imprecisely, between pre-emptive war and preventive war. The former constitutes self-defense in response to a clear and present danger — repelling an act of aggression presumed with reasonable certainty to be imminent. The latter is an act of anticipation — and, to be candid, of aggression — to forestall the emergence of a clear and present danger.

When Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-escalates-rhetoric-on-threat-from-north-korea/2017/08/10/ff49e018-7ded-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html), was he threatening to cross the nuclear weapons threshold? This has been contemplated before regarding North Korea. Former General Douglas MacArthur, who had been fired by President Harry S. Truman for insubordination, handed President-elect Dwight D. Eisenhower a memorandum (https://books.google.com/books?id=dWUD-mi1dCcC&pg=PA271&lpg=PA271&dq=macarthur+eisenhower+memorandum+%E2%80%9Cto+clear+North+Korea+of+enemy+forces%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=4I5jpxcy_x&sig=Hy26DM5HfkhUOu0JQwMuEOEYxqg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi9p6rOo4_WAhUD4iYKHeDVCnQQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=macarthur%20eisenhower%20memorandum%20%E2%80%9Cto%20clear%20North%20Korea%20of%20enemy%20forces%E2%80%9D&f=false) on how “to clear North Korea of enemy forces”: “This could be accomplished through the atomic bombing of enemy military concentrations and installations in North Korea and the sowing of fields of suitable radio-active materials, the by-product of atomic manufacture, to close major lines of enemy supply and communication….”

MacArthur badly misjudged Eisenhower, whose biographer Jean Edward Smith says (https://books.google.com/books?id=_LhouUaI5ecC&pg=PA450&lpg=PA450&dq=%E2%80%9Cwas+the+only+one+at+Potsdam+who+opposed+using+the+bomb.%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=SVkVhq11yR&sig=Nydm5yuW_5ehFpmULt1w0Rx51is&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj1nvvNpI_WAhVCSiYKHakJDAgQ6AEIKzAB#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9Cwas%20the%20only%20one%20at%20Potsdam%20who%20opposed%20using%20the%20bomb.%E2%80%9D&f=false) that during the Potsdam Conference (July 17th to August 2nd, 1945), when Eisenhower was told of the New Mexico test — his first knowledge of the new weapon — “he was appalled” and “was the only one at Potsdam who opposed using the bomb.” Smith says:

“As president, Eisenhower would twice be presented with recommendations from his National Security Council and the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the bomb be used; first, in Vietnam to protect the French at Dien Bien Phu, then against China at the time of the Formosa Strait crisis. Both times Eisenhower rejected the recommendations. As a former supreme commander, Eisenhower had the confidence to do so, where other presidents might not have. And by rejecting the use of the bomb, there is no question that Eisenhower raised the threshold at which atomic weaponry could be employed — a legacy we continue to enjoy.”

But for how long? The non-proliferation regime has been remarkably successful. During the 1960 presidential campaign, John Kennedy cited “indications” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/with-iran-deal-obama-makes-bad-history/2015/07/29/642fdc2a-3553-11e5-adf6-7227f3b7b338_story.html) that by 1964 there would be “10, 15 or 20” nuclear powers. As president, he said that by 1975 there might be 20. Now, however, North Korea, the ninth, might be joined by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, among others, unless U.S. leadership produces, regarding North Korea, conspicuously credible deterrence. The reservoir of presidential credibility is not brimful.

On August 1st, Senator Lindsey O. Graham (Republican-South Carolina) said Trump had told him (https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/1/16075198/trump-lindsey-graham-north-korea-war) that “there will be a war with North Korea” if it continues to develop ICBMs capable of reaching the United States. “We'll see,” said Trump on Sunday (http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/03/politics/trump-north-korea-nuclear/index.html), responding to this shouted question: “Will you attack North Korea?” You?

Are Congress's constitutional powers regarding war so atrophied that it supinely hopes for mere post facto notification? Ten months after November 8th, that day's costs, until now largely aesthetic, are suddenly, although not altogether unpredictably, more serious than were perhaps contemplated by his 62,984,825 voters.

• George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs for The Washington Post. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary in 1977.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• David Ignatius: History shows us how calamitous the North Korea crisis could become (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/history-shows-us-how-calamitous-the-north-korea-crisis-could-become/2017/09/05/a7263d38-9282-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

• Jennifer Rubin: Trump's latest empty threat on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/09/05/trumps-latest-empty-threat-on-north-korea)

• Ted Gup: The world has already seen ‘fire and fury’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-world-has-already-seen-fire-and-fury/2017/08/11/b4d7f98c-7e17-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html)

• Charles Krauthammer: North Korea: The Rubicon is crossed (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/north-korea-the-rubicon-is-crossed/2017/07/06/6645766e-6279-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/will-trump-lower-the-nuclear-bar/2017/09/06/f90bbc2e-926c-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/will-trump-lower-the-nuclear-bar/2017/09/06/f90bbc2e-926c-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

China will back fresh U.N. measures on North Korea
over nuclear tests

But China's foreign minister does not say whether Beijing would back crippling steps
such as cutting oil shipments to the North.

By EMILY RAUHALA | 7:29AM EDT - Thursday, September 07, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/07/Foreign/Images/China_Koreas_Tensions_24354-82e69-4466.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/07/Foreign/Images/China_Koreas_Tensions_24354-82e69-4466.jpg)
Trucks transport goods to North Korea through the Friendship Bridge linking China and North Korea on September 5th.
— Photograph: Minoru Iwasaki/Associated Press.

BEIJING — China’s foreign minister said on Thursday that Beijing would support further U.N.-imposed “measures” against North Korea following its largest nuclear test, but stopped short of saying whether China would back crippling economic sanctions such as halts to fuel shipments.

The comments by Wang Yi suggested possible room for co-operation over U.S.-drafted plans to increase pressures on North Korea after its nuclear test earlier this week.

President Trump has made pressuring China to “do more” on North Korea a priority. After Sunday's missile test, he tweeted that Pyongyang has become a “threat and embarrassment to China”— a rather pointed critique of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China — the main economic lifeline for North Korea — has long been hesitant to completely cut off the crude oil supply to North Korea, wary that economic instability could bring a flood of refugees to the border and U.S. soldiers to its doorstep.

“Given the new developments on the Korean Peninsula, China agrees that the U.N. Security Council should respond further by taking necessary measures,” Wang, the foreign minister, told reporters.

“We believe that sanctions and pressure are only half of the key to resolving the issue. The other half is dialogue and negotiation,” he added.

Wang did not specify what type of measures he had in mind, compounding questions about what the international community can do next.

The United States is seeking the toughest-yet U.N. sanctions against North Korea, according to a draft resolution circulated on Wednesday. The sanctions would stop all oil and natural gas exports and freeze the government's foreign financial assets.

North Korea greeted the proposal with a threat: “We will respond to the barbaric plotting around sanctions and pressure by the United States with powerful counter measures of our own,” read a statement delivered at a summit in Russia on Thursday.

Russia, which has veto power at the United Nations, has also expressed opposition to the plan (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/asia/north-korea-putin-oil-embargo.html).

Russia and China are in favor of a “double suspension” deal that would see North Korea halt nuclear and missile tests if the United States and South Korea stop holding joint military exercises — a plan that the U.S. and South Korea have rejected.

But after a Wednesday night phone call with the Chinese president, Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting that he and Xi were largely in agreement on what to do.

“I believe that President Xi agrees with me 100 percent,” Trump told reporters. “He doesn't want to see what's happening there either.”

“We had a very, very frank and very strong phone call,” Trump continued. “President Xi would like to do something.”

Trump, like Wang, failed to specify what that something might be.

From China's perspective, an oil cutoff would be a major step.

Jin Qiangyi, a professor at the Center for North and South Korean Studies at Yanbian University, said cutting off North Korea's oil supply could mean “trouble” for China.

“What would we do if there was chaos after cutting off oil?” he asked. “Besides, oil is the last card we have.”

Zhang Liangui, a North Korean studies expert at the Communist Party's Central Party School in Beijing, said that Sunday's nuclear test sparked real fear about contamination near the China-North Korea border, a fact that could encourage China to finally play the card.

But even if China went ahead with oil sanctions, Zhang said, Russia could still block the plan.

“Whether North Korea has nuclear missiles or not does not mean as much to Russia as it does to China,” he said. “Therefore, Russia might be seeing things from a very different angle.”

• Luna Lin contributed from Beijing.

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

__________________________________________________________________________

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-will-back-fresh-un-sanctions-on-north-korea-over-nuclear-tests/2017/09/07/afc6ac52-93a9-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-will-back-fresh-un-sanctions-on-north-korea-over-nuclear-tests/2017/09/07/afc6ac52-93a9-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Another North Korean holiday? Time for another missile launch.

North Korea marks its major holidays with parades — and defiant
demonstrations of its military might in the face of global imperialism.

By MICHELLE YE HEE LEE | 4:21AM EDT - Friday, September 08, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/31/Editorial-Opinion/Images/06064609-2327.jpg&w=900) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/31/Editorial-Opinion/Images/06064609-2327.jpg&w=1484)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claps during the Day of the Sun festival in Pyongyang on April 15th.
— Photograph: How Hwee Young/European Pressphoto Agency.

SEOUL — Saturday is the 69th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and neighboring countries are bracing for the rogue country to celebrate in a classic North Korean way: by conducting a test of its nuclear and missile program.

Since earlier in the week, South Korean government officials had reported signs of another missile test in the works, possibly a long-range launch set for this weekend.

Then on Thursday, the South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon announced that the government expects North Korea to launch another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on September 9th, saying the situation is “very grave”. The National Security Council met on Thursday to discuss plans in case of the new missile test.

Like many countries, North Korea likes to celebrate independence or founding days with parades and proclamations, but Pyongyang likes to add dramatic gestures against imperialism, particularly ones that showcase its military might.

For example, in 2015, North Korea turned back its time zone by a half hour (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/08/07/north-koreas-new-time-zone-is-perfectly-bizarre), creating “Pyongyang Time” on its 70th anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese occupation. “The wicked Japanese imperialists committed such unpardonable crimes as depriving Korea of even its standard time while mercilessly trampling down its land,” the official KCNA news agency said at the time.

North Korea's neighboring countries have come to expect the isolated country to conduct regular exercises, particularly to celebrate the Day of the Sun in April, the birthday of its founding president. And on September 9th last year, North Korea marked the anniversary of its founding with an underground nuclear test (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test.html), saying it was building protection against “threats and sanctions”.

Kim Il Sung, the founding president of North Korea and the current leader's grandfather, emerged as a leader under the Communist Party of Korea with the help of the Soviet Union after World War II, and established the Worker's Party of North Korea in 1946.

Over the next two years, Kim formed the northern half of the Korean Peninsula into its own state, and by September 1948, had become the leader of the Supreme People's Assembly. On September 9th, 1948, the Democratic Republic of North Korea was established.

Fast forward 69 years. Predicting exactly what action the rogue nation will take on a given day is a futile exercise, but there's anticipation building up to the weekend — particularly given South Korean intelligence on technical preparations leading up to another test.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_750w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/842102276.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/06/Editorial-Opinion/Images/842102276.jpg)

The significance of another intercontinental ballistic missile test would be more political than practical, said Christopher Green, senior adviser for the Korean Peninsula at the International Crisis Group. There's another holiday around the corner — October 10th, the anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party — so it's not imperative for Pyongyang to conduct a test on September 9th, he said.

Moreover, the shorter the space between each test, the less there is that North Korea's scientists and technicians can learn from them and make improvements to their designs, he said.

“To the degree that North Korea knows that the international community is going to punish it for conducting its sixth nuclear test — or try to punish it, at any rate — there is no incentive not to do something else provocative on September 9th. If one is going to be punished for one's actions anyway, why not go the whole hog?” Green said.

“On the other side of the coin, everyone now seems to expect North Korea to take a provocative step of some kind on September 9th, and it doesn't serve Pyongyang's interests to be too predictable in the short run. They may opt to wait,” Green added.

North Korea has been stepping up its nuclear and missile program significantly in recent months. In July, North Korea conducted two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared capable of reaching the United States mainland.

The United Nations Security Council already has imposed sanctions, including on coal and seafood. Yet they have done little to alter North Korean behavior; less than a week ago, Pyongyang conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test to date. This prompted South Korean President Moon Jae-in to push for even harsher sanctions, including cutting off the critical crude oil supply, but China and Russia — permanent members of the UN Security Council — have yet to come around to that particular idea.

“There's been no diplomatic intervention to stop the continued testing, and the pace has been consistently fast,” said John Delury, associate professor of Chinese Studies at the Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies in Seoul.

It remains unclear what the international community can do next. Meanwhile, North Korea issued a defiant statement on Thursday: “We will reply to U.S. barbarian sanctions and pressure with our powerful countermeasures.”

“North Korea could be playing with us, looking like they're moving stuff around just to keep people on edge,” Delury said. “If there’s nothing on the 9th, there will be a sign of relief — but it's sort of meaningless, because we've set this expectation.”

In Seoul, life is carrying on as normal. Delury's advice to a certain WorldViews reporter trying to figure out whether she can make plans to see her grandmother in Seoul this weekend: “When it comes between your grandma and Kim Jong Un, you should pick your grandma.”

• Michelle Ye Hee Lee normally reports for The Fact Checker (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker) at The Washington Post.

__________________________________________________________________________

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• South Korean president ‘sandwiched’ by the threat from the North (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korean-presidentsandwiched-by-norths-threat/2017/09/07/13ac3ff4-93cb-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

• Has the U.S. actually succeeded with North Korea? A top admiral says so. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/south-korea-calls-for-cutting-north-koreas-oil-supplies-but-russia-is-reluctant/2017/09/06/7f33221c-92de-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

• For Kim Jong Un, nuclear weapons are a security blanket. And he wants to keep it. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/for-kim-jong-un-nuclear-weapons-are-a-security-blanket-and-he-wants-to-keep-it/2017/09/05/d7b7ecb8-9236-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

• In latest test, North Korea detonates its most powerful nuclear device yet (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/08/another-north-korean-holiday-time-for-another-missile-launch (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/08/another-north-korean-holiday-time-for-another-missile-launch)

from The Washington Post....

What should we do about North Korea?
We may be thinking about it all wrong.

Trying to marshal good reasons to adopt a certain strategy can lead policymakers astray.

By BRADLEY DeWEES | 9:31PM EDT - Friday, September 08, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/07/Production/Outlook/Images/AFP_S64JT.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/07/Production/Outlook/Images/AFP_S64JT.jpg)
Korean People's Army soldiers attend a mass celebration on September 6th in Pyongyang for scientists involved in carrying out
North Korea's largest nuclear blast to date. — Photograph: Kim Won-Jin/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

NORTH KOREA's recent nuclear and missile developments — including what it claimed to be a test of a hydrogen bomb, and a missile test that led the Japanese government to advise its citizens to take cover (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html) — have brought Pyongyang and Washington to a level of tension not seen since the Korean War (https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-holding-pyongyang-to-account-1502660253). Options for dealing with the crisis include containment of a nuclear North Korea (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/08/08/why-deterring-and-containing-north-korea-is-our-least-bad-option) as well as military action (https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/what-us-would-use-strike-north-korea) that would set back its nuclear progress. Experts tend to agree that none of the options are good.

The United States does, however, have better and worse ways to decide on a North Korea strategy. Framing the decision in the right way — asking not just “Why should we do this?” but “At what price do other options become more attractive?” — could make the difference between war and peace.

Selecting from options such as containment or military action can take two forms — what decision scientists call “choice” or “matching” (https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~jpayne/ba525_articles/Ssn9_1.pdf). “Choice” requires a decision-maker to separate options from one another, while “matching” requires the decision-maker to equate options with one other.

Choice would lead a decision-maker to ask why containment is better than military action (or vice versa). This “why?” question triggers a search for good reasons to adopt or reject an option. Matching, by contrast, would lead a decision-maker to ask how much (or how little) military action would have to cost before it was as desirable as containment. This “how much?” question triggers a quantification of the dimensions common to each option.

The two processes can lead to different outcomes because choice — and the concomitant search for “good reasons” — can bias a decision-maker in several ways.

Choice pushes people toward the option scoring highest on the most important criterion, even if that option leads to a worse overall outcome. The criteria at stake in this decision include lives, money, living under the risk of a nuclear North Korea and maintaining the credibility of public threats (https://tinyurl.com/ydacu5sd). In the latter category would be statements such as one President Trump made on August 8th: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” If maintaining the credibility of threats like this is the most important criterion to the administration, choice would favor a military option. Choice also would predispose a military option if preventing a nuclear North Korea is the most important criterion to the administration, as recent statements by national security adviser H.R. McMaster (http://www.hughhewitt.com/national-security-advisor-general-h-r-mcmaster-msnbc-hugh) imply: North Korea having “nuclear weapons that can threaten the United States” would be “intolerable from the president’s perspective.” In both cases, acting on one's most important criterion constitutes a good reason.

Matching could lead to a different decision even if the relative importance of each criterion remained unchanged. Using matching, the task would be to say how much, in lives and money, one values avoiding the risk of a nuclear North Korea or maintaining the credibility of public threats. What containment lacks on these criteria it could make up for in saving lives and money. Matching wouldn't predestine the outcome — preventing a nuclear North Korea or maintaining credibility could still be important enough to justify military action, but a decision-maker would have to directly confront the cost of what Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-defense-secretary-james-mattis-on-face-the-nation-may-28-2017) would be the “worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”

Choice based on reasons factors a decision-maker's audience into the decision. What counts as a good reason depends on what a decision-maker's audience thinks is a good reason. This is important in the context of a North Korea strategy, because the decision could change based on who a decision-maker has in mind when deciding. Is a military adviser thinking of troops? A political leader thinking of supporters? Of history? What counts as a good reason for one group may not necessarily be good for another. Matching, on the other hand, is more stable across audiences — the audience is unlikely to affect the numbers underlying the decision.

Choice based on reasons also allows a bigger role for emotions (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53cbcafbe4b06e7bc846e3cb/t/54b436eae4b02c392c7846b4/1421096682499/emotion-and-decision-making.pdf). In the context of national security decisions, this is perhaps the most important difference (http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0951692801013001001). When members of a staff, military or country feel anger, fear or a desire not to appear weak, using those emotions as reasons for acting can be simple and compelling. As Ambassador Nikki Haley argued this past week (https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7954) in trying to get the U.N. Security Council to act: “North Korea basically has slapped everyone in the face in the international community that has asked them to stop.” Such emotions could push us toward a military option. Matching, on the other hand, would limit the effect emotions can have on a decision — stating how many lives and dollars one is angry would be difficult, and even more difficult to defend to others.

I have no inside knowledge of the administration's decision process, but it probably is relying on choice. I say this for two reasons. First, choice is more natural for people (http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=goldstone). In our own lives, we're more likely to reach for good reasons rather than expend extra mental effort on quantification. Second, the administration's most recent national security decision — selecting a strategy for Afghanistan — seemed to rely on choice. As the defense secretary said (https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis) just before the Afghanistan decision was made: “We're sharpening each one of the options so you can see the pluses and minuses of each one…. Now just make the decision.” Reporting of that decision process (http://www.npr.org/2017/08/17/543728992/behind-the-scenes-a-major-choice-looms-on-afghanistan) described a menu of options, and the president chose the one he deemed most desirable.

Importantly, even if the pluses and minuses of each option are quantified, quantification alone does not imply matching. Matching would require senior policymakers themselves to step through the quantification to decide which option is most desirable. It's the act of quantification — of asking oneself “how much?” rather than “why?” — that insulates a decision-maker from bias.

Matching and the quantification associated with it are unnatural and even morally uncomfortable when the stakes include human lives, but when it comes to a situation as dangerous as the standoff with North Korea, it's important to force an unnatural decision process. To be sure, a decision process does not make the decision easier — it cannot change the fact that risk and benefit are positively correlated. What a good process can do, though, is ensure the United States confronts the standoff consistently and with a complete understanding of what is in its best interest. In a turbulent world, consistency and completeness can be achievements of their own.

• Bradley DeWees is a captain in the Air Force and a doctoral student in decision science and public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. The views expressed here are his and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. government or any part thereof.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Escaping North Korea: ‘We … decided to kill ourselves rather than be sent back’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/world/2017/09/09/escaping-north-korea-we-had-already-decided-to-kill-ourselves-rather-than-be-sent-back)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-should-we-do-about-north-korea-we-may-be-thinking-about-it-all-wrong/2017/09/08/6ffd31f0-924f-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-should-we-do-about-north-korea-we-may-be-thinking-about-it-all-wrong/2017/09/08/6ffd31f0-924f-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Why Kim Jong Un wouldn't be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first

The nuclear strategy of weaker powers.

By VIPIN NARANG | 9:45PM EDT - Friday, September 08, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/08/Outlook/Images/2017-09-07T090828Z_271808359_RC1DEF8E8BC0_RTRMADP_3_GLOBAL-MARKETS-NORTHKOREA-0355.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/08/Outlook/Images/2017-09-07T090828Z_271808359_RC1DEF8E8BC0_RTRMADP_3_GLOBAL-MARKETS-NORTHKOREA-0355.jpg)
If Kim Jong Un feels threatened, he may believe he has no other choice. — Photograph: Damir Sagolj/Reuters.

NORTH KOREA's nuclear weapons program is advancing quickly. This year, it has tested a suite of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that can hit neighbors and American bases in East Asia, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, two intercontinental-range ballistic missiles and a purported thermonuclear weapon capable of flattening a city. Soon Kim Jong Un will be able to deliver it to our shores, if he cannot do so already.

This, we are told, is an unfortunate but not an existential problem. Although it will reshape geopolitics, there is no real threat of nuclear warfare, because Kim has no death wish. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says Americans should sleep well at night (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/us/politics/north-korea-nuclear-threat-rex-tillerson.html), and analysts argue that it would be tantamount to national suicide (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/) for Kim to use nuclear weapons against the United States. If his purpose is to ensure his survival (how better to understand his quest for nukes?), why would he risk it by starting a conflict with Washington he can't win? Surely it won't come to war, let alone nuclear war.

Yes, Kim is brutally rational. And that is precisely why he may have to use nuclear weapons, but not in a first strike against American cities. Kim's nuclear arsenal exists to stop his enemies' quest for regime change. If North Korea and the United States wind up shooting at each other, it might make sense for Kim to use nuclear weapons first in a way that increases his chances of survival. The basic idea is to use one set of nuclear devices to stave off the conventional invasion, and hold in reserve longer range, more powerful devices that threaten the enemy's cities to deter nuclear annihilation. It's a doctrine called “asymmetric escalation”, employed by states that are conventionally weak. France articulated it during the Cold War to deter the more powerful Soviet Union, and Pakistan does the same today against a more powerful India.

The strategy turns on Kim's main calculation that the United States will say it's not worth losing a major American city to get rid of him. This would allow him to avoid the fate of Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Libya's Moammar Gaddafi, who did not have nuclear weapons. Deterrence worked uneasily during the Cold War — albeit with close calls and some hair-raising moments — but it worked. Many of the same principles about mutual destruction still obtain today between major powers.

Yet the equation for North Korea, which cannot ensure mutual destruction, is slightly different. Faced with the prospect of a U.S.-led invasion, Pyongyang's conventional inferiority requires it to degrade the United States' ability to sustain the attack against it. This means it essentially has no option but to use nuclear weapons first against targets such as Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, which stations American bombers, and a variety of allied bases in Japan and South Korea. North Korea has to use nuclear weapons there because it does not have enough conventional warheads to damage the bases meaningfully; a conventional response would not slow or stop a U.S. onslaught. It is for these bases that North Korea has tested the medium-range missiles, reportedly developed a compact nuclear fission warhead and honed guidance for the missiles that would carry it.

Wouldn't such an attack mean the retaliatory annihilation of North Korea? Not necessarily. This is why the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and the H-bomb are so important. Kim's survival theory is that North Korea could threaten to destroy an American city with a thermonuclear-tipped ICBM if the United States continued an invasion or retaliated with nuclear weapons. Anytime its cities can be held at risk, the United States' deterrence equation changes, as it did during the Cold War. Are we willing to risk losing millions of civilians in our homeland? Possibly not. And it's unlikely that we could reliably destroy all of Kim's ICBMs on the ground or intercept the warheads in the air, particularly as he builds more. So the prospect of losing San Francisco thanks to our nuclear retaliation may cause us to pause conventional operations and elicit a cease-fire, thereby preserving Kim's regime and rule. Kim may surmise that if he doesn't use nuclear weapons first, he is certain to lose; if he does, he may have a fighting chance of surviving.

This scenario to stave off an invasion with a limited nuclear attack on a U.S. military target is not irrational, although it is clearly risky and terrifyingly tragic. One wrinkle is that North Korea's arsenal is currently small and vulnerable, and U.S. military strategy, reiterated by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, is to try to find and destroy all of Kim's nuclear systems in the event of a war. That gives Kim an incentive to go first, go early and go massively if he is not confident about surviving a U.S. attempt at disarming him. If Kim thinks we are coming after him or his forces, he cannot afford to be wrong, and he cannot afford to launch second.

States with small arsenals that are put under counterforce pressure have itchy trigger fingers. It is what is known as the use-it-or-lose-it dilemma. Prior to World War I, European powers believed they all had to mobilize military forces first or risk massive conventional defeat. The calculation for North Korea is the same today, except with nuclear weapons.

This current risk is amplified by our saber-rattling. How do we assure Kim that the B-1B sorties from Guam that are meant as “shows of strength” are not a prelude to a counterforce surprise attack? We are in a particularly dangerous phase right now, and not because Kim is unpredictable. The more rational he is, the itchier his trigger finger could be.

At the broader political level, Kim has another aim with his nuclear weapons: to break our alliances. The Soviet Union's acquisition of ICBM technology caused panic among our allies. France developed its own nuclear weapons, because Charles de Gaulle was convinced we would not trade Pittsburgh for Paris. Today, the concern among our allies is that with our homeland at risk, we might not trade San Francisco for Seoul, or Toledo for Tokyo. These anxieties are amplified when President Trump accuses South Korea and China of “appeasement” after North Korea's thermonuclear test. Pyongyang probably read that tweet with glee, thinking that its political strategy is already working. With a nuclear security umbrella like the one we maintain in East Asia, it’s always harder to reassure allies than it is to deter the adversary. Right now, we are being outplayed by Kim on both counts.

Dispensing with the notion that Kim is crazy or irrational is important for two reasons. First, it clarifies the military and political strategies he might envision with nuclear weapons. Second, it suggests that he responds to both domestic and international incentives. It means deterrence — which was always coupled with reassurance and diplomacy — can work with North Korea, just as it did with the Soviet Union and China. But deterrence works both ways: We can no longer threaten to attack North Korea without risking a nuclear exchange.

• Vipin Narang is an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, specializing in nuclear proliferation and strategy.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Tillerson says Americans ‘should sleep well at night’ after North Korea threats (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/48f50992-7cf7-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_video.html)

• Diplomacy really can work against North Korea. Here's why. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/31/diplomacy-really-can-work-against-north-korea-heres-why)

• I live on Guam. Here's how we’re coping with the nuclear standoff. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/10/i-live-on-guam-heres-how-were-coping-with-the-north-korea-nuclear-standoff)

• How President Trump could tweet his way into nuclear war. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/how-president-trump-could-tweet-his-way-into-nuclear-war-with-north-korea)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-kim-jong-un-wouldnt-be-irrational-to-use-a-nuclear-bomb-first/2017/09/08/a9d36ca4-934f-11e7-aace-04b862b2b3f3_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-kim-jong-un-wouldnt-be-irrational-to-use-a-nuclear-bomb-first/2017/09/08/a9d36ca4-934f-11e7-aace-04b862b2b3f3_story.html)

Trump presides over 9/11 ceremonies, vows 'America does not bend'

President Trump commemorated the Sept. 11 attacks for the first time as commander-in-chief on Monday, leading a moment of silence and sharing words of strength on the 16th anniversary of that tragic day.

“We can never erase your pain, but we can honor their sacrifice by pledging our resolve to do whatever we must to keep our people safe,” Trump said, speaking to hundreds of family members gathered at the Pentagon.

The president, a New Yorker, was joined by first lady Melania Trump to observe a moment of silence first at the White House in remembrance of the nearly 3,000 American lives lost in the attacks -- when hijackers led by Usama Bin Laden crashed airplanes into New York City’s World Trade Center, the Pentagon and a field near Shanksville, Pa.

The moment of silence at 8:45 a.m. commemorates the moment the first plane, American Flight 11, struck the north tower of the World Trade Center. The second plane, United Flight 175, struck the south Twin Tower at 9:03 a.m. 16 years ago.

The president and first lady then visited the Pentagon to observe another moment of silence led by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford. The president laid a wreath at the Pentagon to honor the victims.

“We never asked for this fight but we are steadfastly committed to seeing it through,” Mattis said at the Pentagon. “We Americans are not made of cotton candy. We’re not seaweed drifting in the current. We are not intimidated by our enemies.”

Mattis added: “Mr. President, your military does not scare.”

Trump took the podium following Mattis’ remarks, honoring the families and the lives lost, and the heroism that day.

“The horror and anguish of that dark day were seared into our national memory forever. Innocent men, women, and children whose lives were taken so needlessly,” Trump said.

The president honored “each family,” ensuring that “no force on earth can ever take away your memories, diminish your love or break your will to endure, and carry on and go forward.”

“On that day, not only did the world change, but we all changed. Our eyes were open to the depths of the evil that we face,” he said.

The president added: “In that hour of darkness, we also came together with renewed purpose. Our differences never looked so small.”

Trump went on to honor the “nearly 5 million” men and women who have joined the ranks in the last 16 years to defend the United States of America. Since 9/11, nearly 7,000 service members have died. The president’s remarks come after the administration announced a renewed Afghanistan policy late last month. A senior U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that the president signed off on sending an additional 4,000 troops to Afghanistan, after apparently listening to appeals from his generals.

“We’re ensuring that they [terrorists] never again have a safe haven to launch attacks against our country,” Trump said. “We are making claim to these savage killers that there is no dark corner beyond our reach, no sanctuary beyond our grasp, and nowhere to hide–anywhere—on this very large earth.”

The president thanked members of the military for their service and said, “America does not bend. We do not waver. And we will never, ever yield.”

Meanwhile, Vice President Pence led the ceremony in Shanksville, where Flight 93 crashed into an open field at 10:03 a.m. 16 years ago. Many believe the passengers on that flight prevented a larger attack by fighting back.

In his remarks, an emotional vice president recalled being on Capitol Hill on 9/11 during what was his first year in Congress. Pence remembered the heroes on Flight 93 that prayed with a phone operator before plummeting to the ground, and assured the family members gathered at the memorial that this was “personal.”

“Among the many lives that were saved by their selfless courage, they might well have saved my own life that day, 16 years ago,” the vice president said, thanking the audience for the “privilege” of speaking. “I will always believe that I and many others in our nation’s Capitol were able to go home that day to hug our families because of the courage and selflessness of the heroes on Flight 93. For me, it’s personal.”

He added: "We will drive the cancer of terrorism from the face of the earth."

As the ceremonies took place in Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania, hundreds gathered at Ground Zero in Manhattan for reading of the names of those who lost their lives 16 years ago.
Fox

from The Washington Post....

Why haven't sanctions on North Korea worked?
Two very different theories.

The differing theories point toward a worrying ambiguity.

By ADAM TAYLOR | 12:35PM EDT - Monday, September 11, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-10/Bloomberg/06195583.jpg&w=900) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-10/Bloomberg/06195583.jpg&w=1484)
Kim Jong Un, second from left, attends a banquet in Pyongyang this month to celebrate North Korea's latest nuclear test.
— Photograph: Yonhap/European Pressphoto Agency/Agencia EFE.

NORTH KOREA has been under United Nations sanctions since 2006. These sanctions have grown significantly stronger over time. Other nations and entities, including the United States and the European Union, also have imposed unilateral measures on Pyongyang in that period.

And yet, North Korea's nuclear weapons program has not only persisted but flourished. The country also remains a dictatorship, with one of the worst human rights records in the world. It seems obvious that sanctions on North Korea have failed — so far, at least.

It's worth asking why, especially with another round of punitive measures on the table. The good news is that there are two clear and logical theories for why existing sanctions on North Korea haven't worked. But there's bad news, too: At their core, the two theories are pretty different — and if both are to be believed, they may imply contradictory policies.

Theory one: Sanctions have not hit North Korea hard enough.

The idea behind this theory is easy to grasp: North Korea hasn't been hit hard enough by sanctions to steer it away from belligerence. Observers note that life in North Korea, in economic terms, appears to have improved significantly since 2006. “The sanctions were perfunctory,” former North Korean official Ri Jong Ho, who defected, told The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/he-ran-north-koreas-secret-money-making-operation-now-he-lives-in-virginia/2017/07/12/4cb9a590-6584-11e7-94ab-5b1f0ff459df_story.html) earlier this year.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the sanctions are not strict — notably, the measures imposed by the United Nations in August (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/07/what-the-new-u-n-sanctions-on-north-korea-mean) did away with precautions against causing humanitarian suffering. And North Korea's apparent economic resilience can't fully be attributed to the economic measures undertaken by Kim Jong Un, either, though those are important, too.

Instead, the biggest problem with the sanctions may be implementation. China and Russia, two of North Korea's most important trading partners, have often balked at fully implementing the sanctions. Even when China finally agreed to meet the U.N. cap on coal imports from North Korea last year, some suspected that Beijing was still dragging its feet (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinese-imports-from-north-korea-fall-sharply-a-sign-that-beijing-is-cracking-down/2017/07/13/1ff1f49a-6787-11e7-83d7-7a628c56bde7_story.html).

Other countries may turn a blind eye, too. A recent U.N. report on North Korea's economy (http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/07/u-n-report-sanctions-arent-stopping-north-koreas-nuclear-program) suggested that there was plenty of blame to go around. For example, when direct coal imports to China began to drop, Pyongyang began rerouting this coal to other countries, including Malaysia and Vietnam. The North Korean regime is also suspected of working on Syria's missile systems and sending military trainers to African nations, including Angola and Uganda.

“As the sanctions regime expands, so does the scope of evasion,” the report's authors noted. But if this problem could be addressed, it might offer hope that sanctions could compel North Korea to change its behavior.

Theory two: North Korea's leadership doesn't care about sanctions.

A less hopeful theory posits that North Korea is impervious to sanctions because … well, basically, because it's North Korea. Consider it this way: Sanctions are designed to change a nation state's behavior through the use of economic pressure. The idea is generally that the country's leaders will ultimately decide that the economic cost of their behavior is too great and switch course.

But North Korea isn't like any other country. Its leadership may not operate the way we would expect it to. North Korea is one of the most closed-off dictatorships the world has seen. Even seasoned observers of autocratic states have expressed shock at the fervent adulation for the Kim dynasty in the country. Under such a system, public opinion seems to have little effect on Kim Jong Un.

“They'd rather eat grass than give up their nuclear program,” one high-profile proponent of this theory, Russian President Vladimir Putin, said recently.

Kim seems to view nuclear weapons as his only option against the United States. These weapons would not only help him avoid being overthrown like Libya's Moammar Gaddafi — a frequent reference point for North Korea — but could also get U.S. forces out of South Korea and perhaps even reunite the peninsula under Pyongyang's terms (sure, the latter scenario is unlikely, but who in North Korea would tell Kim that?).

In fact, after surviving the devastation of the Korean War and the famine during the 1990s, there is a sense among some North Korean officials that the sacrifices imposed by the sanctions — or, worse, war — might be worth it. “A lot of people would die,” one official recently told the New Yorker's Evan Osnos (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/09/18/the-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-north-korea). “But not everyone would die.”

The problem.

Which of these theories is more accurate? It may not be possible to say definitively. Measuring the effectiveness of sanctions in any circumstances is almost always difficult, let alone with regard to a country as secretive and frequently duplicitous as North Korea. Meanwhile, we have little real understanding of how Kim makes his decisions and what his private feelings about sanctions are.

In some ways, both theories may be partially right. China has been reluctant to sign off on an oil embargo against North Korea, in part because it believes Pyongyang may view such a move as an existential threat and react in an unexpected way.

But the differing theories point toward a worrying ambiguity. If North Korea really is impervious to sanctions, imposing more such measures on the country could be a waste of time and perhaps even counterproductive. At the same time, if sanctions could actually change North Korea's behavior, the skepticism of powerful critics like Putin undermines that enterprise and bodes ill for their effectiveness.

• Adam Taylor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. Originally from London, he studied at the University of Manchester and Columbia University.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Does diplomacy stand a chance in North Korea? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/15/does-diplomacy-stand-a-chance-in-north-korea)

• The messy data behind China's growing trade with North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/05/the-messy-data-behind-chinas-growing-trade-with-north-korea)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/11/why-havent-sanctions-on-north-korea-worked-two-very-different-theories (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/11/why-havent-sanctions-on-north-korea-worked-two-very-different-theories)

from The Washington Post....

U.N. agrees to toughest-ever sanctions against North Korea

The U.S. and its allies pushed for a full embargo.

By CAROL MORELLO, MICHELLE YE HEE LEE and EMILY RAUHALA | 5:46PM EDT - Monday, September 11, 2017

THE U.N. Security Council on Monday agreed on its toughest-ever sanctions against North Korea that passed unanimously after the United States softened its initial demands to win support from China and Russia.

The sanctions set limits on North Korea's oil imports and banned its textile exports in an effort to deprive the reclusive nation of the income it needs to maintain its nuclear and ballistic missile program and increase the pressure to negotiate a way out of punishing sanctions.

“Today, we are attempting to take the future of the North Korean nuclear program out of the hands of its outlaw regime,” said Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

“Today, we are saying the world will never accept a nuclear-armed North Korea,” she added. “And today the Security Council is saying if North Korea does not halt its nuclear program, we will act to stop it ourselves.”

The new sanctions come on top of previous ones that cut into North Korea's exports of coal, iron ore and seafood. Haley said that more than 90 percent of North Korea's reported exports are now fully banned by sanctions.

The new sanctions ratchet up the pressure on North Korea, though they are far less sweeping than what Washington originally sought after Pyongyang carried out its sixth and most potent nuclear test on September 3rd. But the United States agreed to drop several key demands, and toned down others, to keep China and Russia from exercising their veto over the measure.

Just a week ago, Haley urged the “strongest possible” sanctions on North Korea. Among the measures Washington pushed in an initial draft were a complete oil embargo and an asset freeze and global travel ban on leader Kim Jong Un. During negotiations last week and through the weekend, the embargo became a cap, and the punitive measures against the leader were dropped.

Though toned down, the sanctions are potentially far-reaching in their ability to shave as much as $1.3 billion from North Korea's revenue.

Under the Security Council resolution, imports of both refined and crude oil will be capped at 8.5 million barrels a year, which Haley said represents a 30 percent cut. Natural gas and condensates also were prohibited to close off possible alternative fuels. In addition, textiles, which last year accounted for $726 million, representing more than a quarter of North Korea's export income, are banned.

In an effort to curb smuggling, the resolution allows countries to demand the inspection of ships suspected of carrying North Korean goods, though a U.S. proposal to allow the ships to be challenged with military force was dropped. But ships proven to be abetting Pyongyang's efforts to evade sanctions are subject to an asset freeze and may be barred from sailing into ports.

And in a separate measure that will not take effect immediately, countries will be required not to renew contracts for an estimated 93,000 North Korean guest workers who labor overseas. According to U.S. assessments, their salaries bring the North Korean government $500 million a year.

In her remarks at the Security Council, Haley evoked the lessons of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon 16 years ago.

“That day, the United States saw that mass murder can come from a clear blue sky on a beautiful Tuesday morning,” she said. “But today, the threat to the United States and the world is not coming out of the blue. The North Korean regime has demonstrated that it will not act on its own to end its nuclear program. The civilized world must do what the regime refuses to do. We must stop its march toward a nuclear arsenal with the ability to deliver it anywhere in the world.”

Haley said the United States is not seeking war with North Korea, which she said had “not yet passed the point of no return.”

“If it agrees to stop its nuclear program, it can reclaim its future,” she said. “If it proves it can live in peace, the world will live in peace with it.”

In recent days, the United States and its allies spent the past several days trying to come up with a resolution that would be acceptable to Moscow and Beijing.

Chinese analysts believe the country will continue to take an incremental approach.

It's not that Beijing is not angry with Kim — it is. But Beijing worries that instability in North Korea will hurt Chinese interests.

Recent weapons tests have literally shaken Chinese border areas, and residents worry about nuclear fallout. Chinese authorities worry conflict could send North Korean refugees streaming across the border or bring U.S. troops closer to their door.

“Beijing has multiple, complex strategic considerations,” said Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group. “It wants to send a message to Kim Jong Un that his nuclear program is unacceptable and to punish bad behavior, but it does not want to trigger North Korea's collapse or turn its neighbor into a permanent enemy.”

Crude oil supply is vital to North Korea, particularly its military. A complete cutoff could be perceived in Pyongyang as an existential threat to the regime, Kovrig said. So China needs to seriously consider the chaos — political and otherwise — that could ensue.

And the timing is key. “Once China employs its economic leverage, it loses it as a further bargaining tool,” Kovrig said. “That's why in the past, China has tried to calibrate sanctions to ‘punish but not strangle’ North Korea.”

Haley praised Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the Security Council resolution would not have happened without the relationship between Xi and President Trump.

Russia, itself the subject of sanctions over Ukraine, has called sanctions against Moscow “illegal”. Russia's ambassador to the U.N., Vasilly Nebenzia, said Moscow believes it would be “wrong” to allow North Korea's nuclear test to go unanswered. But he criticized the United States for not assuring Pyongyang that Washington does not seek war or regime change.

“We're convinced that diverting the menace posed by North Korea could be done not by more sanctions but by political means,” he said.

In Pyongyang, North Korea's Foreign Ministry on Monday issued a statement warning the United States will pay a “due price” if it pursues stronger sanctions.

“The forthcoming measures to be taken by the [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] will cause the U.S. the greatest pain and suffering it had ever gone through in its entire history,” according to the statement released by the Korean Central News Agency.

• Carol Morello is the diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post, covering the State Department.

• Michelle Ye Hee Lee reports for The Washington Post's Fact Checker (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker).

• Emily Rauhala is a China Correspondent for The Washington Post. She was previously a Beijing-based correspondent for TIME, and an editor at the magazine's Hong Kong office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-the-push-for-oil-embargo-on-north-korea-china-is-reluctant-to-sign-off/2017/09/11/3a5b56fe-96e5-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-the-push-for-oil-embargo-on-north-korea-china-is-reluctant-to-sign-off/2017/09/11/3a5b56fe-96e5-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

How Russia quietly undercuts sanctions intended to stop
North Korea's nuclear program

Just as China is finally cracking down, Russian profiteers step in to aid Kim Jong Un.

By JOBY WARRICK | 7:37PM EDT - Monday, September 11, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/11/Foreign/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Sanctions_58409-cafa5-4211.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/11/Foreign/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Sanctions_58409-cafa5-4211.jpg)
A South Korean news magazine with photos of President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un under the headline
“Korean Peninsula Crisis” is displayed at the Dong-A Ilbo building in Seoul. — Photograph: Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press.

RUSSIAN SMUGGLERS are scurrying to the aid of North Korea with shipments of petroleum and other vital supplies that could help that country weather harsh new economic sanctions, U.S. officials say in an assessment that casts further doubt on whether financial measures alone can force dictator Kim Jong Un to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

The spike in Russian exports is occurring as China — by far North Korea's biggest trading partner — is beginning to dramatically ratchet up the economic pressure on its troublesome neighbor in the face of provocative behavior such as last week's test of a powerful nuclear bomb.

Official documents and interviews point to a rise in tanker traffic this spring between North Korean ports and Vladivostok, the far-eastern Russian city near the small land border shared by the two countries. With international trade with North Korea increasingly constrained by U.N. sanctions, Russian entrepreneurs are seizing opportunities to make a quick profit, setting up a maze of front companies to conceal —transactions and launder payments, according to U.S. law enforcement officials who monitor sanction-busting activity.

Such trade could provide a lifeline to North Korea at a time when the United States is seeking to deepen Kim's economic and political isolation in response to recent nuclear and missiles tests. Trump administration officials were hoping that new trade restrictions by China — including a temporary ban on gasoline and diesel exports imposed this spring by a state-owned Chinese petroleum company — could finally drive Kim to negotiate an agreement to halt work on nuclear weapons and long-range delivery systems.

The U.N. Security Council late on Monday approved a package of new economic sanctions that included a cap on oil imports to North Korea, effectively slashing its fuel supply by 30 percent, diplomats said. A U.S. proposal for a total oil embargo was dropped in exchange for Russian and Chinese support for the measure.

“As the Chinese cut off oil and gas, we're seeing them turn to Russia,” said a senior official with detailed knowledge of smuggling operations. The official, one of several current and former U.S. officials interviewed about the trend, insisted on anonymity in describing analyses based on intelligence and confidential informants.

“Whenever they are cut off from their primary supplier, they just try to get it from somewhere else,” the official said.

The increase in trade with Russia was a primary reason for a series of legal measures announced last month by Justice and Treasury officials targeting Russian nationals accused of helping North Korea evade sanctions. Court documents filed in support of the measures describe a web of alleged front companies established by Russian citizens for the specific purpose of concealing business arrangements with Pyongyang.

While Russian companies have engaged in such illicit trade with North Korea in the past, U.S. officials and experts on North Korea observed a sharp rise beginning last spring, coinciding with new U.N. sanctions and the ban on fuel shipments in May by the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation. The smuggled goods mostly are diesel and other fuels, which are vital to North Korea's economy and can't be produced indigenously. In the past, U.S. agencies also have tracked shipments of Russian industrial equipment and ores as well as luxury goods.

Traffic between Vladivostok and the port of Rajin in North Korea has become so heavy that local officials this year launched a dedicated ferry line between the two cities. The service was temporarily suspended last week because of a financial dispute.

China, with its large shared border and traditionally close ties with Pyongyang, remains North Korea's most important trading partner, accounting for more than 90 percent of the country's foreign commerce. Thus, Beijing's co-operation is key to any sanctions regime that seeks to force Kim to alter his behavior, current and former U.S. officials say.

Still, Russia, with its massive petroleum reserves and proven willingness to partner with unsavory regimes, could provide just enough of a boost to keep North Korea's economy moving, allowing it to again resist international pressure to give up its strategic weapons, the officials said.

“Russia is now a player in this realm,” said Anthony Ruggiero, a former Treasury Department official who is now a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank. “The Chinese may be fed up with North Korea and willing to do more to increase the pressure. But it's not clear that the Russians are willing to go along with that.”

The reports of Russian oil smuggling come as Moscow continues to criticize international efforts to impose more trade restrictions on North Korea. Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a joint news conference on Wednesday with South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, pointedly refused to support new restrictions on fuel supplies for the North.

“We should not act out of emotions and push North Korea to a dead end,” Putin said, according to South Korean media accounts of the news conference.

Rare insight into exactly how Russian firms conduct business with Kim's isolated regime can be gleaned from the court papers filed last month to support new sanctions against Russian nationals accused of supplying diesel and other fuels to North Korea. The papers describe in detail how one company, Velmur, was set up by Russian operatives in Singapore to allegedly help North Korea purchase millions of dollars' worth of fuel while keeping details of the transactions opaque.

Velmur was registered in Singapore in 2014 as a real estate management company. Yet its chief function appears to be “facilitating the laundering of funds for North Korea financial facilitators and sanctioned entities,” according to a Justice Department complaint filed on August 22nd. The company has no known headquarters, office space or even a Web address, but rather “bears the hallmarks of a front company,” the complaint states.

According to the documents, Velmur worked with other Russian partners to obtain contracts this year to purchase nearly $7 million worth of diesel fuel from a Russian supplier known as IPC between February and May. In each case, North Korean operatives wired the payments to Velmur in hard currency — U.S. dollars — and Velmur in turn used the money to pay IPC for diesel tanker shipments departing the port of Vladivostok, the documents show.

“The investigation has concluded that North Korea was the destination” of the diesel trans-shipments, the Justice Department records state. “As such, it appears that Velmur, while registered as a real estate management company, is in fact a North Korean financial facilitator.”

Officials for Velmur could not be reached for comment. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, reacting to the U.S. court filing last month, dismissed the sanctions policy as futile, while declining to address specific allegations about sanctions-busting by Russian individuals.

“Washington, in theory, should have learned that, for us, the language of sanctions is unacceptable; the solution of real problems is only hindered by such actions,” Ryabkov said. “So far, however, it does not seem that they have come to an understanding of such obvious truths.”

U.S. officials acknowledged that it may be impossible to physically stop Russian tankers from delivering fuel shipments to North Korean ports, as long as the Putin government grants tacit approval. But the United States enjoys some leverage because of the smugglers' preference for conducting business in dollars.

When Justice Department officials announced sanctions on Russian businesses last month, they also sought the forfeiture of millions of dollars in U.S. currency allegedly involved in the transactions, a step intended as a warning to others considering trading with North Korea. Black-market traders tend to shun North Korea's currency, the won, which has been devalued to the point that some Pyongyang department stores insist on payment in dollars, euros or Chinese renminbi.

“There are vulnerabilities here, because the people North Korea is doing business with want dollars. It was dollars that the North Koreans were attempting to send to Russia,” said Ruggiero, the former Treasury official. “The Russians are not about to start taking North Korean won.”

• David Filipov in Moscow contributed to this report.

• Joby Warrick joined The Washington Post's national staff in 1996. He has covered national security, the environment and the Middle East and currently writes about terrorism. He is the author of two books, including 2015's “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/product/0804168938), which was awarded a 2016 Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: ‘We are not looming for war,’ Haley says about new sanctions against North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/ce3ec778-9741-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_video.html)

• For North Korean leader, nukes are a security blanket he can’t do without (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/for-kim-jong-un-nuclear-weapons-are-a-security-blanket-and-he-wants-to-keep-it/2017/09/05/d7b7ecb8-9236-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

• Some see Russian hand in North Korea’s rapid missile gains (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-secret-to-kims-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-koreas-missiles-advances/2017/07/08/5d4f5fca-6364-11e7-a4f7-af34fc1d9d39_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-russia-quietly-undercuts-sanctions-intended-to-stop-north-koreas-nuclear-program/2017/09/11/f963867e-93e4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-russia-quietly-undercuts-sanctions-intended-to-stop-north-koreas-nuclear-program/2017/09/11/f963867e-93e4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea nuclear test may have been twice as strong as first thought

New analysis of seismic data suggests the bomb’s yield could have been up to 250 kilotons.

By MICHELLE YE HEE LEE | 6:02AM EDT - Wednesday, September 13, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_900w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/13/Foreign/Images/AFP_SC3C5-4129.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/13/Foreign/Images/AFP_SC3C5-4129.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un attending a photo session with teachers who volunteered to work at remote schools, released
on September 12th by the official Korean Central News Agency. — Photograph: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

SEOUL — North Korea's powerful nuclear test earlier this month may have been even stronger than first reported, equivalent to roughly 17 times the strength of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, according to a new analysis by a U.S. monitoring group.

North Korea's September 3rd nuclear test, its sixth and biggest, showed how much progress it has made on its nuclear and missile program.

Preliminary estimates (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-apparently-conducts-another-nuclear-test-south-korea-says/2017/09/03/7bce3ff6-905b-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html) had found the yield, or the amount of energy released by the blast, to have been about 100 kilotons. In comparison, the bomb detonated over Hiroshima in 1945 released about 15 kilotons of energy.

But a new analysis by 38 North (http://www.38north.org/2017/09/punggye091217), run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, found North Korea's test may have been much stronger.

Updated seismic data showed the magnitude of the resulting earthquake was greater than initial estimates — between 6.1 and 6.3. That means the yield of the latest test was roughly 250 kilotons, reported 38 North's Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu.

In other words, the North Korean test may have been almost 17 times stronger than the bomb detonated over Hiroshima. This is close to what 38 North previously calculated as the maximum yield that could be contained at the underground Punggye-ri test site.

This new estimate by 38 North is much higher than those of the U.S. government and its allies at the time. The United States intelligence assessment put the blast at 140 kilotons, Japan at 160 kilotons and South Korea at 50.

Satellite imagery showed the test resulted in many more landslides than after any of the previous five tests, according to the 38 North analysis.

North Korea described the device it had detonated as a hydrogen bomb designed to be carried by a long-range missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. The international community widely condemned the test and within 10 days, the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved its toughest sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/8982bd6c-97c6-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_video.html) on the country to date.

In the wake of the North Korean test, both the United States and South Korea are highlighting their own military readiness.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was traveling Wednesday to Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, the center of American nuclear arsenal, with more than 100 land-based nuclear missiles and aircraft.

Meanwhile, the South Korean Air Force on Wednesday conducted its first live-fire drill to test its pre-emptive strike capability, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry.

• Michelle Ye Hee Lee reports for The Washington Post's Fact Checker (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker).

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• South Koreans now want their own nuclear weapons (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/13/most-south-koreans-dont-think-the-north-will-start-a-war-but-they-still-want-their-own-nuclear-weapons)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea's latest nuclear test was so powerful
it reshaped the mountain above it

New radar images show North Korea's September 3rd nuclear test
was powerful enough to have changed the topography of the
mountain above the tunnel where the test likely took place.

By MICHELLE YE HEE LEE | 3:14AM EDT - Thursday, September 14, 2017

SEOUL — New radar satellite images show the September 3rd nuclear test by North Korea was powerful enough to sink a roughly 85-acre area on the peak of a mountain above the tunnels where the test likely took place.

North Korea carries out its nuclear tests in a complex of tunnels at its Punggye-ri site and images of the mountains, in this case Mount Mantap, above it can give experts a sense of where the device was tested exactly and how powerful it was.

The new Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite images, captured before and after September 3rd, showed “significant changes at Mount Mantap's peak elevation. Prior to the test, Mount Mantap was 2,205 meters high; the mountain has since diminished in height,” wrote Jeffrey Lewis (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1203852/sar-image-of-punggye-ri), head of the East Asia program at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies in California.

“You can see that the explosion visibly displaces the mountain, which demonstrates both how large the explosion was but also that it occurred in the same tunnel complex as the preceding four nuclear tests,” Lewis wrote on the Arms Control Wonk (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com) website. “This is useful because the relationship between the size of the explosion and the magnitude of the seismic signals is sensitive to the overburden — how much rock is above the explosion.”

The images were taken by Airbus, a space technology company that makes earth observation satellites, using its TerraSAR-X satellite, and provided to experts at the center. You can see the change in this animated image Lewis posted on Twitter:

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170914twjl_TwitterJeffreyLewis_zpsnjecpahf.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/908034180407222272)

The device, which North Korea described as a hydrogen bomb capable of being placed on a ballistic missile, was the most powerful tested to date. Original estimates had put its yield in the 100 kiloton range, but updated seismic data analyzed by experts this week put it closer to a whopping 250 kilotons, or nearly 17 times more powerful than the bomb that flattened Hiroshima.

The new images are “additional proof that the September 2017 explosion was much larger than ever before at this site,” said Melissa Hanham, senior research associate at the Center for Non-proliferation. In comparison, radar images of last year's nuclear test did not show a noticeable change in the surface area of the same mountain, she said.

The sunken area corresponds with some of the highest peaks of Mount Mantap, Hanham said.

“It makes sense that they would use their existing tunnel network attached to the North Portal entrance, because this leads to where the overburden is the greatest,” Hanham said. “If they used a tunnel with less overburden, they might have blown the top off the mountain.”

The growing nuclear threat from the north has led to more South Koreans calling for their own nuclear weapons. A Gallup Korea poll conducted after the September 3rd test found 60 percent of respondents supported nuclear weapons for the south.

But in an interview with CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/14/asia/south-korea-moon-nuclear/index.html) on Thursday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in ruled out the idea: "To respond to North Korea by having our own nuclear weapons will not maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and could lead to a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia."

In response to the September 3rd nuclear test, the United Nations on Monday unanimously agreed on its toughest sanctions against North Korea to date, setting limits on its oil imports and banning its textile exports. North Korea condemned the sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-lashes-out-over-vicious-un-sanctions/2017/09/12/88be9caa-97b9-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html), and warned that the United States would “suffer the greatest pain” it has ever experienced for leading the effort to ratchet up economic pressures on the reclusive nation.

On Thursday, North Korea issued another threat, this time targeting both Japan and the U.S. In a statement issued by North Korea's official news agency, Pyongyang said it would use nuclear weapons to “sink” Japan and “reduce the U.S. mainland to ashes and darkness”.

• Michelle Ye Hee Lee reports for The Washington Post's Fact Checker (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/14/orth-koreas-latest-nuclear-test-was-so-powerful-it-reshaped-the-mountain-above-it (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/14/orth-koreas-latest-nuclear-test-was-so-powerful-it-reshaped-the-mountain-above-it)

Why Russia props up the dangerous North Korean regime
By Hollie McKay

Published September 13, 2017
FoxNews.com
As North Korea continues to develop a nuclear-weapons program, threatening the U.S. and neighboring countries while starving and enslaving much of its population, the regime of Kim Jong Un continues to receive an increasing amount of both public and private support from Russia. But why?

“Putin is weakening sanctions against North Korea to weaken the concept of sanctions themselves,” Marion Smith, Executive Director of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, which seeks to illuminate human rights abuses in communist governments, told Fox News. “Russia is under heavy international sanctions and Putin wants to empower naysayers in the West who think sanctions ae either too inefficient or too provocative of the dictatorial regimes they are levied against.”

However, Russia did go along this week in siding with the latest round of U.S.-pushed sanctions, approved by the U.N. Security Council. If properly enforced, the new sanctions would severely limit North Korea’s access to international currency and fuel required for its prohibited ballistic missile and nuclear programs. It won’t be able to export textiles, one of its only export industries. In addition, importing oil and fuel will be a marginally harder, as will propelling its people off to make money in labor jobs abroad.

Nonetheless, the sanctions initially proposed by the U.S. – which included completely cutting off oil imports – were significantly diluted largely at Russia’s behest. Moscow is also one of the biggest food-aid donors to North Korea, which is widely accused of pouring its finances into military and missile spending rather than feeding its impoverished population.

Related Image
In this undated image distributed on Sunday, Sept. 3, 2017, by the North Korean government, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at an undisclosed location. North Koreaâ€™s state media on Sunday, Sept 3, 2017, said leader Kim Jong Un inspected the loading of a hydrogen bomb into a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a claim to technological mastery that some outside experts will doubt but that will raise already high worries on the Korean Peninsula. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)Expand / Collapse
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting the loading of a hydrogen bomb into a new intercontinental ballistic missile. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

Furthermore, experts contend that Russia has long been a prominent recipient of North Korea’s cheap, hard labor trade. For more than fifty years, North Koreans have been sent to do logging in the bitter forests of Siberia. Yet more recently, they are reported to have been used as construction workers in cities such as St. Petersburg which is preparing for the 2018 World Cup, as well as working in private homes across the country.

A brand new ferry system was even set up just four months ago to carry cargo and passengers between Vladivostok, Russia, and Rason, North Korea. But this week, it emerged that U.S. officials now believe Russian smugglers are operating to undercut sanctions by way of these two ports, with Russian entrepreneurs setting up “front” companies to conceal transactions and launder payments, according to the reporting of The Washington Post.

The alleged movements are believed to provide something of a lifeline to Kim Jong Un’s regime, and could effectively keep it from faltering under the hefty and mounting sanctions.

According to Geoff Hellman, Chairman and CEO of the Economic Policy Forum which focuses on business dealings in the Asia-Pacific Region and Russia, it is all an “Asymmetric Hybrid Warfare” (AHW) tactic aimed at promoting Russia’s image at home, as a place of “law and order, peace-loving and devoted to economic prosperity” compared to a more “war-mongering” United States.

“Russia supports actions that benefit Russia. Russia purports to support sanctions against North Korea, but in practice supports North Korea in its effort to evade sanctions,” he said. “Russia employs criminal networks to set up front companies in Singapore, for example, to transship oil.”

Related Image
FILE - In this Feb. 7, 2014 file photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with president of the Presidium of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong Nam at the Olympic reception hosted by the Russian President in Sochi, Russia. The North Korea's nominal head of state, not its absolute leader Kim Jong Un, is to visit Russia in May, 2015 to attend celebrations marking the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany. Pyongyang's state media said Monday, May 4, 2015, that Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, will travel to Russia to take part in the ceremony. (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Alexei Nikolsky, Presidential Press Service, File)Expand / Collapse
Russian President Vladmir Putin with the president of the Presidium of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong Nam. (The Associated Press)

Russia and North Korea indeed share a feeble but consequential 11-mile land border and 12-mile maritime border that functions as supply routes between the two nations. But perhaps more significantly, relations between the two countries have deep roots dating back to the end of World War II when North Korea served the Soviet Union as a potent communist ally on the eastern flank.

The Embassy of Russia in North Korea – officially referred to as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – boasts both historic and future economic and trade ties between the two nations, highlighting that Russian private companies seek to enter the “untapped Korean market” while the government too has grand plans.

“Russia and the DPRK undertake joint efforts to implement bilateral and multilateral economic projects such as the construction of the gas pipeline from Russia to South Korea through the DPRK territory as well as electric power lines using the same route and connection of the Trans-Siberian and Trans-Korean railways,” the embassy states. “If implemented, the projects will be economically beneficial to all the participants.”

In 2012, Russia agreed to discard some 90 percent of North Korea’s $11 billion Soviet-era debt, with the remaining debt fraction to be paid into an account devoted to promoting trade between the two countries.

MILLIONS OF AMERICAN LIVES COULD BE AT STAKE AS NORTH KOREA THREATENS TO ATTACK POWER GRID

And even though Putin recently declared his condemnation of North Korea’s provocative testing exercises, he insisted that a military response would lead to a “global catastrophe.” Putin’s Russia has held a long-running policy of pushing back against U.S.-mandated regime change, and by backing North Korea at the ire of the United States, Russia is able to assert itself as a prominent player in the world of foreign affairs.

“Russia may not like what North Korea is doing, but in taking this stance they get to be a player on the world stage again which is one of their goals,” explained Clint Watts, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Center. “And it is a way to position themselves against the U.S., which hasn’t been complying with their wishes. There hasn’t been the big reset Putin had hoped for with Trump.”

North Korea has undertaken 16 missile tests this year alone – including two intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests and one possible hydrogen-bomb test this month. President Trump has warned the rogue state that the sanctions imposed are “nothing compared to what ultimately will have to happen.”

NORTH KOREA THREATENS 'PAIN AND SUFFERING' IN RETALIATION FOR NEW U.N. SANCTIONS

But, by forging closer ties to a U.S. enemy, Moscow may have greater leverage in getting what it wants from Washington.

“By Putin’s calculation, misbehavior by North Korea makes his stock go up as the U.S. pleads for Russian assistance,” noted Ryan Mauro, national security expert at the Clarion Project. “From a bargaining perspective, it makes sense for Russia to assist North Korea and see what it can get America to offer in exchange for assistance.”

Yet at least for now, the U.S. State Department is formally maintaining that “Russia supports the overall goal of de-nuclearizing the Korean Peninsula,” and is hopeful that “they will follow through on their agreements.”

“Remember, Russia doesn’t see the same degree of problem here as the U.S. and South Korea do. Korean missiles won’t be aimed at Russian soil,” added one Moscow-based official.

The Russian Embassy in Washington D.C. did not respond to a request for comment.

Hollie McKay has been a FoxNews.com staff reporter since 2007. She has reported extensively from the Middle East on the rise and fall of terrorist groups such as ISIS in Iraq. Follow her on twitter at @holliesmckay

from The Washington Post....

North Korea fires another missile from near Pyongyang,
reportedly over Japan

This would be the second launch over Japan in less than three weeks.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 6:40PM EDT - Thursday, September 14, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_925w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Images/06205427.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Images/06205427.jpg)
A photo made available by the North Korean Central News Agency shows the second test-fire of Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic
missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea on July 28th, 2017. Multiple media reported on Friday, September 15th, 2017,
that North Korea has launched another unidentified missile and that it has passed over Japan.
— Photograph: KCNA/European Pressphoto Agency/Agencia EFE.

SEOUL — North Korea fired another missile from the Pyongyang area early on Friday morning, with the Japanese public broadcaster NHK reporting that it flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

South Korea's joint chiefs of staff said that the missile was launched from a site near the capital, Pyongyang, and fired in an easterly direction at about 6:30 a.m. local time. The Japanese government is still assessing the launch, but it immediately triggered emergency alerts in Japan.

The alerts warned residents that a missile had been launched and to seek shelter.

On Thursday, a North Korean state agency had issued an alarming threat to Japan.

“The four islands of the [Japanese] archipelago should be sunken into the sea by [our] nuclear bomb,” the Korea Asia-Pacific peace committee said in a statement carried by the official news agency.

Hokkaido is the northernmost of Japan's four main islands.

“Japan is no longer needed to exist near us,” the committee said.

This is the second time in less than three weeks that North Korea would have fired a missile over Japan.

On August 28th, North Korea fired a Hwasong-12, an intermediate-range ballistic missile technically capable of flying 3,000 miles, enough to reach the U.S. territory of Guam.

But the last missile flew to the east, over Hokkaido and into the Pacific Ocean, rather than on a southward path toward Guam. North Korea was apparently testing its flight on a normal trajectory without crossing a “red line” of aiming at the United States.

But the missile launch, followed by a huge nuclear test, triggered tough new sanctions from the United Nations Security Council.

Following Friday's launch, South Korea's president, Moon Jae-in, convened an emergency meeting of his national security council.

• Anna Fifield is The Post’s bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Economy of deceit: How North Korea funds its nuclear weapons program | Loopholes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/af17285e-aaa7-11e6-8f19-21a1c65d2043_video.html)

• YouTube has shut down more North Korean channels — and researchers are livid (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/14/youtube-has-shut-down-more-north-korean-channels-and-researchers-are-livid)

• For Kim Jong Un, nuclear weapons are a security blanket. And he wants to keep it. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/for-kim-jong-un-nuclear-weapons-are-a-security-blanket-and-he-wants-to-keep-it/2017/09/05/d7b7ecb8-9236-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

U.S. general says size of most recent North Korean test ‘equates to’
a hydrogen bomb

General John Hyten cited the massive size of North Korea's most recent nuclear test.

By DAN LAMOTHE | 6:31PM EDT - Thursday, September 14, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp-content/uploads/sites/33/2017/09/3458521-1024x732.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp-content/uploads/sites/33/2017/09/3458521.jpg)
General John E. Hyten, U.S. Strategic Command commander, stands in front of a flag at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, on June 6th, 2016.
Hyten presented the 5th Bomb Wing with the 2017 Omaha Trophy in the Strategic Bomber category and recognized multiple Team Minot
Airmen for their mission contributions. — Photograph: Senior Airman J.T. Armstrong/U.S. Air Force.

OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, NEBRASKA — The chief of U.S. Strategic Command said Thursday that the size, yield and other indications seen in North Korea's most recent nuclear test “equates to a hydrogen bomb” and that he must now assume Pyongyang can build one.

Air Force General John Hyten, who oversees U.S. nuclear forces and monitors North Korea, told reporters meeting with him at his headquarters on this installation that he cannot confirm a hydrogen bomb was tested but the test was significant “because of the sheer destruction and damage you can use and create with a weapon of that size.” The September 3rd blast is believed to have been at least 100 kilotons in size, large enough to reshape the size of the mountain above the test site that Pyongyang used.

“The change from the original atomic bomb to the hydrogen changed our entire deterrent relationship with the Soviet Union,” Hyten said. “It is significantly of concern not just to Strategic Command, but to everybody in the free world. It should be of concern to people in the neighborhood, which is Japan and Korea, as well as China and Russia.”

Hyten said that if North Korea can mount a bomb of that size on a missile, it could potentially destroy a city. The United States has the ability to deter a nuclear attack on itself or its allies because of the nuclear weapons it maintains, but it's a “different question” whether America can stop North Korea from building them.

“Do I, U.S. Strategic Command, have the ability for the United States to deter an adversary from attacking the United States with strategic weapons,” he said. “Yes, because they know the response is going to be the destruction of their entire nation, and I think that does provide a powerful deterrent.”

Hyten's comments came in an interview with journalists traveling with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who is visiting nuclear weapons sites this week as tensions with North Korea continue to simmer as a result of the nuclear test and an August 29th operation in which Pyongyang launched a Hwasong-12 ballistic missile some 1,700 miles over northern Japan.

Hyten suggested on Thursday that the debate about deterrence in the United States needs to evolve from the 1,550 nuclear warheads it maintains under the New START Treaty it signed with Russia in 2010 to account for other adversaries and other threats, including cyber warfare.

“It is the starting point for any deterrence equation, but it's not the end point,” Hyten said of the treat. “We have to worry not just about attacks that could hurt this country in the nuclear realm, but we have to worry about large-scale conventional attacks as well as space and cyber attacks that could seriously damage this country.”

• Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/14/u-s-general-says-size-of-most-recent-north-korean-test-equates-to-a-hydrogen-bomb (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/14/u-s-general-says-size-of-most-recent-north-korean-test-equates-to-a-hydrogen-bomb)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea fires another missile over Japan,
triggering warnings and condemnation

By ANNA FIFIELD and DAN LAMOTHE | 8:12PM EDT - Thursday, September 14, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_925w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Images/06205427.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Images/06205427.jpg)
A photo made available by the North Korean Central News Agency shows the second test-fire of Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic
missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea on July 28th, 2017. Multiple media reported on Friday, September 15th, 2017,
that North Korea has launched another unidentified missile and that it has passed over Japan.
— Photograph: KCNA/European Pressphoto Agency/Agencia EFE.

SEOUL — North Korea fired another missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido on Friday morning, just a day after Pyongyang threatened that the four main Japanese islands “should be sunken into the sea” by its nuclear bomb.

This was the second time in less than three weeks (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html) that North Korea sent a projectile over Japan, and the missile firing immediately sparked angry reactions in Tokyo and Seoul.

The missile was launched from the Sunan airfield just north of Pyongyang about 6:30 a.m. local time, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said. It flew for 17 minutes, passing over Hokkaido and landing some 1,200 miles to the east in the Pacific Ocean.

The launch immediately triggered emergency alerts in Japan, with text messages and loud speakers telling residents along the missile's potential flight path to seek shelter.

The Japanese government warned people not to approach any debris or other suspicious-looking material, a reflection of the fact that North Korean missiles sometimes break up in flight.

Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, condemned the latest launch and reiterated that Japan would “not tolerate” North Korea's actions. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had asked his government to “prepare for any contingency,” but Japan did not try to shoot down the missile.

In Washington, the White House said President Trump was briefed on the latest North Korean missile launch by his chief of staff, John F. Kelly.

Details were still emerging, but Friday's launch appeared similar to the previous launch, on August 29th.

On that day, North Korea fired a Hwasong-12 — an intermediate-range ballistic missile technically capable of flying 3,000 miles, enough to reach the U.S. territory of Guam — from the Sunan airfield. It flew to the east, over Hokkaido and into the Pacific Ocean, rather than on a southward path toward Guam.

But analysts said that, after testing its missiles by firing them straight up and having them crash into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, North Korea was apparently testing its flight on a normal trajectory without crossing a “red line” of aiming at the United States.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_700w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Graphics/2300-nk-nuclear-timeline.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Foreign/Graphics/2300-nk-nuclear-timeline.jpg)

On Thursday, a North Korean state agency had issued an alarming threat to Japan. “The four islands of the [Japanese] archipelago should be sunken into the sea by [our] nuclear bombs,” the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee said in a statement carried by the official news agency.

Hokkaido is the northern-most of Japan's four main islands.

“Japan is no longer needed to exist near us,” the committee said.

This is the first missile launch since North Korea conducted a huge nuclear test on September 3rd, which analysts say appeared to live up to Pyongyang's claim that it was a hydrogen bomb, exponentially more powerful than a normal atomic device.

The August 29th missile launch, followed by the huge nuclear test, triggered tough new sanctions from the U.N. Security Council.

The Japanese government estimates that the force of that nuclear explosion was 160 kilotons — more than 10 times the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima — but some analysts have said its yield could have been as much as 250 kilotons.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, traveling from Washington to view U.S. nuclear weapons at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, said on Wednesday that the North Korean nuclear test appeared to be “100 kilotons or more.”

“I don't want to talk any further than that right now, okay?” Mattis said. “It's a large one.”

Air Force General John Hyten, the chief of U.S. Strategic Command, agreed with the assessment that North Korea had probably tested a hydrogen bomb.

Speaking just before the missile was launched, Hyten, who oversees U.S. nuclear forces and monitors North Korea, told reporters that the size, yield and other indications seen in North Korea's most recent nuclear test “equates to a hydrogen bomb” and that he must now assume Pyongyang can build one.

He said he could not confirm that a hydrogen bomb was tested but said the test was significant “because of the sheer destruction and damage you can use and create with a weapon of that size.”

“The change from the original atomic bomb to the hydrogen [bomb] changed our entire deterrent relationship with the Soviet Union,” Hyten said. “It is significantly of concern not just to Strategic Command but to everybody in the free world. It should be of concern to people in the neighborhood, which is Japan and Korea, as well as China and Russia.”

Hyten said that if North Korea can mount a bomb of that power on a missile, it could potentially destroy a city. The United States has the ability to deter a nuclear attack on itself or its allies because of the nuclear weapons it maintains, Hyten said, but it's a “different question” whether the United States can stop North Korea from building them.

Hyten said that the United States still has not seen North Korea “put everything together” with a nuclear warhead mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile but that it is only a matter of time before the North Koreans do so.

“Whether they have the ability, I don't have any insight into that,” Hyten said. “I can just look at historic examples and say that it could be within months or it could be within years.”

• Dan Lamothe reported from Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. David Nakamura in Washington contributed to this report.

• Anna Fifield is The Post’s bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

• Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint).

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Economy of deceit: How North Korea funds its nuclear weapons program | Loopholes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/af17285e-aaa7-11e6-8f19-21a1c65d2043_video.html)

• YouTube has shut down more North Korean channels — and researchers are livid (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/14/youtube-has-shut-down-more-north-korean-channels-and-researchers-are-livid)

• For Kim Jong Un, nuclear weapons are a security blanket. And he wants to keep it. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/for-kim-jong-un-nuclear-weapons-are-a-security-blanket-and-he-wants-to-keep-it/2017/09/05/d7b7ecb8-9236-11e7-b9bc-b2f7903bab0d_story.html)

• North Korean missile flies over Japan, escalating tensions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korean-missile-flies-over-japan-escalating-tensions-and-prompting-an-angry-response-from-tokyo/2017/08/28/e1975804-8c37-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953_story.html)

• GRAPHIC: What is North Korea trying to hit? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/north-korea-targets)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Kim Jong Un — smart and strategic?

An imagined interview with the North Korean leader.

By FAREED ZAKARIA | 8:02PM EDT - Thursday, September 14, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_975w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Editorial-Opinion/Images/AFP_SA38Y-2388.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/14/Editorial-Opinion/Images/AFP_SA38Y-2388.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency /Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

LONDON — I am sometimes asked what world figure I most want to interview. For me, the answer is obvious: Kim Jong Un. The general impression around the globe continues to be that the North Korean leader is crazy, provocative and unpredictable, but I think that he might well be strategic, smart and utterly rational. Because I am unlikely to get that interview, I have decided to imagine it instead.

Question: Marshal Kim, why do you keep building and testing nuclear weapons and missiles (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html), even though they result in massive, crippling economic sanctions?

Answer: My nation faces a fundamental challenge — survival. The regime is more threatened than ever before. My forefathers had it easy. The Great Leader, my grandfather, ruled with the support of the world's other superpower at the time, the Soviet Union, as well as our gigantic neighbor, China. The Dear Leader, my father, still had Beijing's help for the most part. But today, the Soviet Union is history and China has become more integrated with the Western system. And the sole superpower, the United States, has made it clear that it seeks regime change in my country. And yet, we have survived with our ideology and system intact. How? Because we have built a protection for ourselves in the form of nuclear weapons.

Question: But China still provides you with crucial supplies of food and fuel. Don't you see it as an ally?

Answer: China is ruthlessly pragmatic. It supports us for its own selfish interests. It doesn't want millions of refugees — or a unified Korea on its border that is a larger version of what South Korea is now, with U.S. troops and a treaty alliance. But I believe that China no longer considers us an ally. It has voted to sanction us in the U.N. Security Council. The current president, Xi Jinping, cultivates close relations with South Korea. He has never met with me (http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/07/asia/north-korea-china-nuclear-test/index.html), the leader of North Korea, something that the leader of China has always done (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/china-dprk-high-level-visits-since-1953-2). Meanwhile, he has had about 10 meetings with the last two presidents of South Korea. At the grand celebrations in Beijing two years ago commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, he placed the president of Russia and the president of South Korea at his side (http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/asia/china-world-war-ii-military-parade/index.html). In North Korea, we pay a lot of attention to ceremonies and what they signal.

Question: Is that why you seem to go out of your way to embarrass China and Xi specifically?

Answer: We will not be pushed around. We heard that senior officials in China and the United States were discussing whether to encourage a coup in North Korea to get a more pliable ruler. So I've taken steps to ensure that this can't happen. The man in our government closest to the Chinese, who could have arranged such a coup attempt, was my uncle (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/world/asia/north-korea-says-uncle-of-executed.html). The man who would have been my natural replacement was my half brother (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/world/asia/kim-jong-nam-assassination-korea-malaysia.html). Both have been liquidated, as have more than 100 disloyal high-level officials (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/29/asia/kim-jong-un-executions/index.html).

Question: So will you come to the negotiating table? Will you agree to denuclearization in return for the lifting of sanctions?

Answer: Yes and no. We will readily come to the table. But we will never give up our arsenal. We're not stupid. It's all that is keeping us alive. Look at Saddam Hussein — and we never forget that North Korea was named as part of the “axis of evil” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/sou012902.htm) a year before the United States invaded Iraq. Look what happened to Moammar Gaddafi in Libya after he agreed to give up his nuclear weapons program. Look at what's happening to Iran right now. After Washington signed a deal and the Iranians have been certified to be adhering to it, President Trump now says (http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/21/trump-assigns-white-house-team-to-target-iran-nuclear-deal-sidelining-state-department) he's going to tear it up anyway. Do you think we would be stupid enough to believe American promises after all this? We are a nuclear power. That is not negotiable. We are willing to talk about limits, test bans, freezes — but we would need to be given something in return, and not just money. We need security, in the form of diplomatic recognition by Washington and guarantees of non-aggression from China, Japan and the United States.

Question: Many Americans worry that you will soon have the capacity and the intention to launch missiles at the United States.

Answer: We will have the capacity. And it serves my purposes to keep you off guard. But why would I strike America and invite a retaliatory counterstrike that would put an end to my regime? Keep in mind, the whole point of this — my entire strategy, all our efforts and the hardships we have borne — is to ensure that my regime and I survive. Why would I risk that? I believe in assassination, not suicide.

• Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Washington Post. He is also the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for The Atlantic.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_975w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/15/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-08-15T094832Z_850889303_RC1795302100_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-2375.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/15/Editorial-Opinion/Images/2017-08-15T094832Z_850889303_RC1795302100_RTRMADP_3_NORTHKOREA-MISSILES-2375.jpg)
North Korean citizens visit the statues of President Kim Il Sung and leader Kim Jong Il. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Reuters.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Here's what a permanent treaty with North Korea might look like (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/heres-what-a-permanent-treaty-with-north-korea-might-look-like/2017/08/15/afe4343c-81f4-11e7-ab27-1a21a8e006ab_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kim-jong-un--smart-and-strategic/2017/09/14/0c28a516-9988-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kim-jong-un--smart-and-strategic/2017/09/14/0c28a516-9988-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html)

from The Washington Post....

Latest North Korea missile launch suggests Guam is within reach

The missile flew 2,300 miles. Guam is 2,100 miles from North Korea.

By ADAM TAYLOR, LARIS KARKLIS and TIM MEKO | 12:14PM EDT - Friday, September 15, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2017/09/wlaunchJAPAN2300-1024x516.jpg&w=925) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2017/09/wlaunchJAPAN2300-1024x516.jpg&w=1484)

ON Friday morning, a North Korean ballistic missile flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido and into the Pacific Ocean (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html). This was the second time in less than three weeks that a missile has flown over Japan; worryingly, it came just a day after Pyongyang said that Japan “should be sunken into the sea.”

However, as sirens sounded in Japan, Americans quickly grew concerned that the real threat revealed by this latest missile test was not just against Japan but also the U.S. territory of Guam.

North Korea's missile, believed to be an intermediate-range Hwasong-12, had flown 2,300 miles in just over 17 minutes, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. That range means that Guam, which lies 2,100 miles from North Korea, is now in reach.

“North Korea demonstrated that it could reach Guam with this missile,” David Wright, co-director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote in a blog post (http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/nk-sept-15-launch-over-japan).

As tensions between North Korea and the United States and its allies have increased in recent weeks, Pyongyang has made a number of threats against Guam, an island territory of 160,000 people. In early August (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/08/09/0200000000AEN20170809001051315.html), a North Korean military spokesman said that the country was considering a plan to fire missiles into the sea around Guam. A propaganda video (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/21/north-koreas-latest-video-tirade-reignites-missile-threat-against-guam) released a few weeks later reiterated this suggestion.

It's an ominous thought. Guam might have only 14 minutes to react if a North Korean missile were about to strike, officials have said.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2017/09/wGuam2300-802x1024.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2017/09/wGuam2300.jpg)

Guam has faced similar warnings from North Korea in the past. The island territory, which is around 4,000 miles west of Hawaii, is an important strategic hub for U.S. power in the Pacific. It is home to both Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam, bases that contain not only 6,000 troops but also long-range bombers, ships and submarines.

“Every time there is some saber rattling in this part of the world, Guam is always part of the occasion,” Robert A. Underwood, president of the University of Guam and a former delegate to the House of Representatives, told The Washington Post in August (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/09/why-north-korea-threatened-guam-the-tiny-u-s-territory-with-big-military-power).

However, rapid advancements in North Korea's missile technology have changed the nature of the threat. Notably, missile tests earlier this year were fired at a lofted trajectory — essentially sending the missile high into space to avoid flying it over other nations. Two Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missiles tested in July (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/north-korea-launch) appeared to be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, but it remains unclear how they would fare on a standard trajectory.

With the past two tests that apparently used Hwasong-12 missiles, Pyongyang appears to have moved away from that cautious strategy and has conducted tests over Japanese territory — a tactic that involves considerable risk.

The increase in range between the August 28th and September 15th launches would appear to show that Guam is in range of the Hwasong-12 — in theory, at least. However, there are still a number of unknown variables in the test, including the size of its payload and how a heavier payload would affect its flight. In his blog post, Wright adds that it is also unlikely that the missile is accurate enough to hit a military base on Guam.

“Even assuming the missile carried a 150 kiloton warhead, which may be the yield of North Korea's recent nuclear test, a missile of this inaccuracy would still have well under a 10 percent chance of destroying the air base,” Wright wrote (http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/nk-sept-15-launch-over-japan).

But North Korea is still likely to proclaim the latest missile test a success. After the August 28th test, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said it was “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.

• Adam Taylor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. Originally from London, he studied at the University of Manchester and Columbia University.

• Laris Karklis has been working at The Washington Post since 2000.

• Tim Meko designs and develops maps, data visualizations and explanatory graphics for The Washington Post. Before coming to The Post he led the visuals team at the Urban Institute and was an infographics artist at the Columbus Dispatch.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Why tiny Guam is in North Korea's crosshairs (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/22b8927a-7d11-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_video.html)

• North Korea's latest nuclear test was so powerful it reshaped the mountain above it (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/14/orth-koreas-latest-nuclear-test-was-so-powerful-it-reshaped-the-mountain-above-it)

• A majority of Americans favor deploying U.S. troops if North Korea attacks South Korea, poll finds (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/07/a-majority-of-americans-favor-deploying-u-s-troops-if-north-korea-attacks-south-korea-poll-finds)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/15/latest-north-korea-missile-launch-suggests-guam-is-within-reach (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/15/latest-north-korea-missile-launch-suggests-guam-is-within-reach)

from The Washington Post....

North Korea wants military ‘equilibrium’ with the U.S., Kim Jong Un says

The country will run “full speed and straight” with its missile program, Kim says.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 9:05PM EDT - Friday, September 15, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1000w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/16/Foreign/Images/AFP_SH1LR.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/16/Foreign/Images/AFP_SH1LR.jpg)
This picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday, September 16th, 2017, shows North Korean leader
Kim Jong-Un inspecting the launching of a medium-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 at an undisclosed location.
— Photograph: KCNA/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

SEOUL — North Korea is seeking military “equilibrium” with the United States as a way to stop American leaders from talking about military options for dealing with Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un said after supervising the launch of another missile over Japan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html).

And North Korea would continue to run “full speed and straight” toward achieving this goal, Kim told his top missile unit, according to the latest statement from his state news agency.

For the second time in three weeks, North Korea on Friday sent an intermediate-range missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. It traveled for 2,300 miles in an easterly direction, landing in the Pacific Ocean. But if it had been launched south-eastward, it could easily have passed the U.S. territory of Guam, some 2,100 miles from the launch site in Pyongyang.

Kim, the North Korean leader who has pressed ahead with alarming speed on his state's nuclear and missile programs, has been threatening to “envelop” Guam with missiles if the United States does not stop its “hostile policy” toward the North.

In the latest statement, Kim said that North Korea's “final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military options.”

He stressed the need for the ability to launch a “nuclear counterattack the U.S. cannot cope with,” according to the Korean Central News Agency. This statement echoed previous assertions that North Korea was not seeking to attack first, but rather aiming to develop the ability to strike back.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1000w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/16/Foreign/Images/North_Korea_Koreas_Tension_24841-5d45f.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/09/16/Foreign/Images/North_Korea_Koreas_Tension_24841-5d45f.jpg)
In this undated photo distributed on Saturday, September 16th, 2017, by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center,
celebrates what was said to be the test launch of an intermediate range Hwasong-12 missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/Associated Press.

North Korea confirmed that the missile launched on Friday was, as analysts thought, an intermediate range ballistic missile that North Korea calls the Hwasong-12. It was launched from a modified truck parked at Sunan airfield, near or at the main international airport in Pyongyang.

The Hwasong-12 “zoomed to the sky with dazzling flash and big explosion,” KCNA reported. The launch was celebrated in the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the Korean Workers' Party, which devoted its first three pages to the launch. Color photos showed Kim watching the missile launch and smiling broadly.

Kim also noted that North Korea had been able to make this astonishing progress on its nuclear and missile programs despite more than a decade of international sanctions aimed at cutting off its ability to produce the parts and funding it needed.

“We should clearly show the big power chauvinists how our state attains the goal of completing its nuclear force despite their limitless sanctions and blockade,” Kim told his elite missile unit. North Korea has historically used the term “big power chauvinist” to refer to China.

China supported the sanctions imposed on North Korea this week in response to its huge nuclear test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html) on September 3rd, and its firing of a missile over Japan on August 29th.

The U.N. Security Council imposed its toughest sanctions to date against North Korea on Monday, setting limits on its oil imports and banning its textile exports. But the new sanctions were a compromise. To win the support of China and Russia, the United States had to tone down its demands, which included a total oil embargo and a global travel ban on Kim.

• Anna Fifield is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• The Latest: UN Security council condemns North Korea's test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/the-latest-us-says-nkorea-missile-was-intermediate-range/2017/09/14/899434a8-99aa-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html)

• North Korea says leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to complete nuclear weapons program despite sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-says-leader-kim-jong-un-has-vowed-to-complete-nuclear-weapons-program-despite-sanctions/2017/09/15/9fceb482-9a63-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-wants-military-equilibrium-with-the-us-kim-jong-un-says/2017/09/15/04f2b22e-9a77-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-wants-military-equilibrium-with-the-us-kim-jong-un-says/2017/09/15/04f2b22e-9a77-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

Hilarious....Trump obviously mistook the long queues for non-existant gasoline in Florida for North Korea.

The idiot Orange Goblin is going senile and getting things confused in his fucked-up mind!

from The Washington Post....

Trump's claim there were long gas lines in North Korea
has residents puzzled

While there are no obvious signs of lengthy lines forming,
there has been evidence of an increase in prices.

By ANNA FIFIELD | 3:49AM EDT - Monday, September 18, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-17/Getty/AFP_SH3PE.jpg&w=925) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/Wires/Images/2017-09-17/Getty/AFP_SH3PE.jpg&w=1484)
People gather to watch footage of the launch of a Hwasong-12 rocket, beside a billboard advertising North Korea's Pyeonghwa Motors,
in Pyongyang on September 16th. — Photograph: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

TOKYO — In his latest Twitter outburst against North Korea, President Trump said that “long gas lines [are] forming in North Korea,” adding an exclamatory “Too bad!” (In the same tweet, he bestowed a new nickname on Kim Jong Un: “Rocket Man” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/09/17/in-a-tweet-trump-sticks-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-with-a-nickname-rocket-man).)

(http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo227/Kiwithrottlejockey/Washington%20Post%20pix/20170918twdjt_TwitterDonaldJTrump_zps7w4odjy2.jpg~original) (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/909384837018112000)

But where is the president getting this information about gas lines from?

Residents in the North Korean capital are scratching their heads. Although there are reports of price increases, they've seen no queues at the few service stations in Pyongyang, a capital of some two million that has more cars than it used to but is still far from congested.

“We are not aware of any long queues at the gas stations,” said one foreign resident of Pyongyang. “At least, I haven't noticed anything. I asked a few Koreans and they haven't seen anything either.”

Another said there had been no obvious change since the last sanctions resolution (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-the-push-for-oil-embargo-on-north-korea-china-is-reluctant-to-sign-off/2017/09/11/3a5b56fe-96e5-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html) was passed by the U.N. Security Council. “Traffic on Friday was as heavy here as I've seen it. Normal on Saturday. Quieter on Sunday.” In other words, the same as every week.

In its effort to punish Kim Jong Un for his continued defiance — repeated missile launches (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-another-missile-from-near-pyongyang-reportedly-over-japan/2017/09/14/9d465988-9999-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html), a huge nuclear test (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-nuclear-test-maybe-have-been-twice-as-strong-as-first-thought/2017/09/13/19b026d8-985b-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html) — the United States has been leading a push to cut off oil to the isolated state. Its efforts to impose a complete oil embargo on North Korea failed, with China and Russia threatening to use their veto powers to block such a resolution.

Instead, the new sanctions measures passed last week cap North Korea's imports of crude oil at the level it's been at over the past year and limits refined petroleum imports — including gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil — to two million barrels a year.

North Korea receives about 4.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products a year and four million barrels of crude. The new sanctions will cut oil exports to North Korea by about 30 percent, the United States mission to the United Nations said (https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7969). Of that, 55 percent of the cut would be in refined products, it said, and the sanctions limit North Korea's ability to import substitutes.

But analysts say there is plenty of wiggle room for China to continue supplying oil to North Korea if it wants to — just as a “livelihood exception” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-is-putting-the-squeeze-on-north-korea-but-for-how-long/2016/11/18/752137a6-a049-11e6-8864-6f892cad0865_story.html) for coal exports previously did.

While supporting the sanctions in principle, China has a patchy record when it comes to implementation, and implementation depends almost entirely on China. About 90 percent of North Korea's trade goes through China.

The sanctions are unlikely to have a significant impact on North Korea's military or nuclear weapons and missile programs, said David von Hippel and Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability.

“These military sectors will have priority access to refined fuels, including likely fuel caches of significant volume that have already been stockpiled and provide a substantial buffer against the sanctions,” they wrote in a recent note. “Primarily, these sanctions will affect the civilian population.”

North Korea was constantly looking for — and finding — ways around the sanctions, making the state more resilient to existing and future sanctions, von Hippel and Hayes wrote.

That means the sanctions will have little effect on the desired goal now — reversing North Korea's missile and nuclear programs — and could diminish the leverage that the international community has over North Korea in the future. For example, when it needs to persuade North Korea to come back to denuclearization talks, the analysts said.

While there are no obvious signs of gas lines forming — no surprise in a country where there is almost no private car ownership — there has been evidence of an increase in prices.

Gasoline prices started to rise in certain parts of the country after North Korea's sixth nuclear test, conducted on September 3rd, apparently in anticipation of shortages.

In Pyongyang, one kilogram (2.2 pounds) of gasoline — that's how it's measured in North Korea — rose from 18,000 to 23,000 North Korean won ($20 to $25.56) during the first week of September, the Daily NK website reported (http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?num=14718&cataId=nk01500), citing individuals in the capital. Diesel prices had also risen, it reported.

There have been blips like this several times this year, but analysts say (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/05/the-messy-data-behind-chinas-growing-trade-with-north-korea) they have seen no other signs of stress in the economy — like rising rice prices or sudden exchange rate fluctuations.

There have been some limitations on filling jerrycans, but this appeared to be a measure to stop reselling and had been in place for some time, one Pyongyang resident said.

Others say it will take time to see whether there is any effect from the sanctions — and certainly longer than the week it took before Trump claimed an impact.

• Anna Fifield is The Post’s bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas. She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney, London and from across the Middle East.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• VIDEO: Tracing Trump's comments on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/54429ade-61b4-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_video.html)

• VIDEO: U.S. and South Korea agree on more sanctions against Pyongyang (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/61c22c24-9b7f-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_video.html)

• Ban on North Korean clothing exports will hurt women the most, experts say (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ban-on-north-korean-clothing-exports-will-hurt-women-the-most-experts-say/2017/09/16/2a6ec716-995c-11e7-a527-3573bd073e02_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/18/trumps-claim-there-were-long-gas-lines-in-north-korea-has-residents-puzzled (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/18/trumps-claim-there-were-long-gas-lines-in-north-korea-has-residents-puzzled)

from The Washington Post....

Securing North Korean nuclear sites would require
a ground invasion, Pentagon says

A Navy admiral sent a blunt assessment of the dangers of military action to lawmakers.

By DAN LAMOTHE and CAROL MORELLO | 10:00PM EDT - Saturday, November 04, 2017

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1025w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/04/National-Security/Images/AFP_TV8G9-0911.jpg) (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/04/National-Security/Images/AFP_TV8G9-0911.jpg)
This file photo taken on October 26th, 2017 shows North Korean soldiers looking south at the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone
on the border between North and South Korea. — Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

THE ONLY WAY to locate and secure all of North Korea's nuclear weapons sites “with complete certainty” is through an invasion of ground forces, and in the event of conflict, Pyongyang could use biological and chemical weapons, the Pentagon told lawmakers in a new, blunt assessment of what war on the Korean Peninsula might look like.

The Pentagon, in a letter to lawmakers, said that a full discussion of U.S. capabilities to “counter North Korea's ability to respond with a nuclear weapon and to eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html) located in deeply buried, underground facilities” is best suited for a classified briefing.

The letter also said that Pentagon leaders “assess that North Korea may consider the use of biological weapons” and that the country “has a long-standing chemical weapons program with the capability to produce nerve, blister, blood and choking agents.”

The Pentagon repeated that a detailed discussion of how the United States would respond to the threat could not be discussed in public.

The letter was written by Rear Admiral Michael J. Dumont, the vice director of the Pentagon's Joint Staff, in response to a request for information from two House members about “expected casualty assessments in a conflict with North Korea,” including for civilians and U.S. and allied forces in South Korea, Japan and Guam.

“A decision to attack or invade another country will have ramifications for our troops and taxpayers, as well as the region, for decades,” Ted Lieu (Democrat-California) and Ruben Gallego (Democrat-Arizona) wrote to the Pentagon. “We have not heard detailed analysis of expected U.S. or allied force casualties, expected civilian casualties, what plans exist for the aftermath of a strike — including continuity of the South Korean Government.”

The Pentagon said that calculating “best- or worst-case casualty scenarios” was challenging and would depend on the “nature, intensity and duration” of a North Korean attack; how much warning civilians would have to get to the thousands of shelters in South Korea; and the ability of U.S. and South Korean forces to respond to North Korean artillery, rockets and ballistic missiles with their own retaliatory barrage and airstrikes.

The letter noted that Seoul, the South Korean capital, is a densely populated area with 25 million residents.

Any operation to pursue North Korean nuclear weapons would likely be spearheaded by U.S. Special Operations troops. Last year, President Barack Obama and then-Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter gave U.S. Special Operations Command a new, leading role coordinating the Pentagon's effort to counter weapons of mass destruction. SOCOM did not receive any new legal authorities for the mission but gained influence in how the military responds to such threats.

Elite U.S. forces have long trained to respond in the case of a so-called “loose nuke” in the hands of terrorists. But senior officials said SOCOM is increasingly focused on North Korea.

Dumont said the military backs the current U.S. strategy on North Korea, which is led by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and focuses on ratcheting up economic and diplomatic pressure as the primary effort to get North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to stop developing nuclear weapons. Tillerson, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, General Joseph F. Dunford Jr., have emphasized that during trips to Seoul this year.

In contrast, President Trump, who goes unmentioned in the Pentagon letter, has taunted Kim as “Rocket Man” and expressed frustration with diplomatic efforts (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-contradicts-tillerson-on-north-korea-the-latest-in-a-series-of-put-downs/2017/10/01/1f11f886-a6bb-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html), hinting that he is considering pre-emptive military force.

“I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man,” Trump tweeted on October 1st, adding, “Save your energy Rex, we'll do what has to be done!”

On October 7th, Trump added in additional tweets that North Korea had “made fools” of U.S. negotiators. “Sorry, but only one thing will work!” he said.

Mattis and other Pentagon leaders have often cited the grave threat faced by Seoul, but the military much less frequently draws attention to its plans for an underground hunt for nuclear weapons.

Air Force Colonel Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said that Dumont and other Pentagon officials had no additional comment about the letter.

A senior U.S. military official in South Korea, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, said that while the 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea maintain a high degree of readiness, he “has to believe” that North Korea does not want a war, given all of the nations aligned against it.

“If you open the history books, this is not the first time that we've been in a heavy provocation cycle,” the official said. On the side of South Korea and the United States, he said, “there is no action taken without extreme consideration of not putting this in a position where a fight is going to happen.”

Dumont's letter also notes that “we have not seen any change in the offensive posture of North Korea's forces.”

A statement by 16 lawmakers, released simultaneously with the Pentagon letter, urged Trump to stop making “provocative statements” that impede diplomatic efforts and risk the lives of U.S. troops.

The Pentagon's “assessment underscores what we've known all along: There are no good military options for North Korea,” said the statement, organized by Lieu and Gallego and signed by 14 other members of Congress who are veterans, all but one of them Democrats.

In a telephone interview, Lieu said that the intent of asking the Pentagon for information was to spell out the cataclysmic consequences of war with North Korea and the aftermath.

“It's important for people to understand what a war with a nuclear power would look like,” said Lieu, citing estimates of 300,000 dead in the first few days alone. More than 100,000 Americans are potentially at risk.

Lieu, who spent part of his time in the Air Force on Guam preparing for military action against North Korea, called the letter a confirmation that a conflict would result in a “bloody, protracted ground war.” The Joint Chiefs, he believes, are “trying to send a message to the American public,” he said.

“This is grim,” Lieu said. “We need to understand what war means. And it hasn't been articulated very well. I think they're trying to articulate some of that.”

Gallego said that he wanted information because of what he sees as a cavalier attitude in the White House about military action in North Korea. The idea that a ground invasion would be needed to secure nuclear weapons is eye-opening, he said, and raises the possibility of the U.S. military losing thousands of troops.

“I think that you're dealing with career professionals at the Pentagon who realize that the drumbeats of war could actually end up leading us to war,” he said. “They want to make sure that there is full transparency and information out there about what can occur if our civilian leaders make wrong calculations.”

The Pentagon letter also notes the possibility of “opposition from China or Russia.”

“The Department of Defense maintains a set of up-to-date contingency plans to secure our vital national security interests,” Dumont wrote. “These plans account for a wide range of possibilities, including third-party intervention, and address how best to ‘contain escalation’.”

The letter says that both “Russia or China may prefer to avoid conflict with the United States, or possibly cooperate with us.”

• Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint).

• Carol Morello is the diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post, covering the State Department.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/securing-north-korean-nuclear-sites-would-require-a-ground-invasion-pentagon-says/2017/11/04/32d5f6fa-c0cf-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/securing-north-korean-nuclear-sites-would-require-a-ground-invasion-pentagon-says/2017/11/04/32d5f6fa-c0cf-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html)

from The Washington Post…

Kim Jong Un has a fleet of ghost ships sneaking
around the high seas to beat sanctions

The vessels use fake names and IDs to trade coal and oil — and some banks and insurers help.

By JEANNE WHALEN | 7:09PM EDT — Wednesday, April 24, 2019

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/s8Yh1VqazWRHxpRBJp7-qHXdGII=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/H2GNMFQ6KQI6RGHVZ3WPVB2BWY.jpg) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/s8Yh1VqazWRHxpRBJp7-qHXdGII=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/H2GNMFQ6KQI6RGHVZ3WPVB2BWY.jpg)
A mound of North Korean coal at Rajin harbor in North Korea's Rason Special Economic Zone in 2017.
— Photograph: Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

IN APRIL 2018, a ship carrying $3 million worth of coal slipped into Indonesian waters with its identification transmitter switched off and its flag hidden from view.

Acting on a tip, Indonesia's navy detained the vessel, which identified itself as the “Wise Honest” from Sierra Leone. When inspectors went aboard, they found two dozen crew members and registration documents indicating a different country of origin — North Korea.

The interdiction, detailed in a March 5 report (https://www.undocs.org/S/2019/171) by U.N. sanctions monitors, is part of a worrying rise in coal exports from the hermit kingdom — exports that violate U.N. sanctions and help finance Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, the monitors said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is likely to seek Moscow's help in easing those sanctions on Thursday as he holds his first summit with President Vladimir Putin (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-russias-far-east-both-kim-jong-un-and-putin-seek-to-send-messages-to-us-/2019/04/23/b8af9220-65d0-11e9-a698-2a8f808c9cfb_story.html) in Russia's Pacific port city of Vladivostok.

Pyongyang is growing bolder in its sanctions evasion in part because many countries — and their banks, insurers and commodities traders — have long failed to properly enforce the measures, North Korea experts said. And some sanctions specialists worry that mixed signals from the Trump administration may further undermine global enforcement.

“It's anarchy,” Hugh Griffiths, the outgoing coordinator of the U.N. monitors, said in an interview. “These massive gaps in maritime and financial governance will provide Chairman Kim with an economic lifeline for months, if not years, to come.”

While Washington has traditionally led the global policing of U.N. and U.S. sanctions, President Trump's recent overtures to Kim (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/he-tells-me-he-didnt-know-trump-defends-kim-over-death-of-otto-warmbier/2019/02/28/722b805c-3b3c-11e9-b786-d6abcbcd212a_story.html) — and his order last month to withdraw new Treasury Department sanctions on North Korea (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-cancels-some-sanctions-aimed-at-north-korea-contradicting-treasury-dept/2019/03/22/6ecb2732-4cd0-11e9-93d0-64dbcf38ba41_story.html) — introduce “a tremendous sense of uncertainty in the global community,” said Elizabeth Rosenberg, a Treasury Department sanctions official from 2009 to 2013. “They don't know whether sanctions will be there the next day.”

The White House and the Treasury Department declined to comment. Trump this month said he did not want to increase U.S. sanctions “because of my relationship with Kim Jong Un” and because he believed “something very significant is going to happen” in his denuclearization talks with Kim (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-kim-downplay-expectations-as-key-summit-talks-begin/2019/02/28/d77d752c-3ac5-11e9-aaae-69364b2ed137_story.html).

North Korea conducts its illicit trading with a fleet of ghost ships that paint false names on their hulls, steal identification numbers from other vessels and execute their trades via ship-to-ship transfers at sea, to avoid prying eyes at ports.

In the case of the Wise Honest, a globe-trotting North Korean salesman arranged the shipment by holding meetings at Pyongyang's embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia — and then paid an Indonesian broker through bank transfers facilitated by JPMorgan Chase, according to bank documents and other evidence gathered by the monitors.

While the interception of the Wise Honest initially looked like a victory for enforcement, Indonesia recently defied U.N. monitors' instructions to seize the coal, allowing it to be transferred to another vessel, which promptly set sail for Malaysia, Griffiths said. He called this a “clear violation” of sanctions and said he has asked Malaysia to investigate. Indonesian and Malaysian officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Many countries agree that a nuclear North Korea represents a grave threat to global security. But enforcing the sanctions requires more time and money than many are willing to spend, Griffiths said.

Stopping Pyongyang's illicit trade would involve keeping close watch on North Korea's embassies and expelling diplomats who facilitate sanctions evasion, he said.

It would also require countries to boost regulation of insurers, banks and commodities traders to ensure they more thoroughly screen the shipments and transactions they support, the monitors said in the report.

Pyongyang's trading partners include criminal networks that knowingly turn a blind eye to sanctions law, Griffiths said. “If they see North Korean coal is cheaper to buy because it's illegal, there's an increased profit margin,” he said. Other traders unwittingly bumble into the transactions because they are not scrutinizing their deals closely enough, Griffiths said. In addition to coal exports, illegal oil imports to North Korea are also soaring.

Most of the ships that trade with Pyongyang sail under a “flag of convenience,” meaning they are registered in countries such as Panama, Togo and Dominica that provide little oversight. But vessels and firms in more-developed countries have also come under suspicion.

In late March, the Treasury and State departments added two oil tankers from South Korea and Singapore (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/dprk_vessel_advisory_03212019.pdf) to a watch list of vessels “believed to have engaged in” illegal trade with North Korea. And the U.N. monitors found that a South Korean company was the intended recipient of the Wise Honest coal.

Singaporean officials said that they were investigating the tanker from their country and that they take their obligations to enforce sanctions “very seriously.” South Korea said it will “conduct a thorough investigation” on possible sanctions violations.

The U.N. Security Council banned North Korean coal exports (https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7924) — the country's largest source of external revenue — in August 2017, after Pyongyang carried out several missile launches. Soon after, the Security Council banned all ship-to-ship transfers (http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/2375) with North Korean vessels and severely restricted North Korea's petroleum imports (https://usun.state.gov/remarks/8238), in part to deprive its military of fuel.

Griffiths and his team of seven is the main monitor of compliance, working out of what Griffiths calls an “undisclosed location” near U.N. headquarters in New York — undisclosed after cyberattacks against the monitors raised concerns about their safety.

The team scrutinizes photos and satellite imagery — some supplied by the United States, Japan, South Korea and Britain — and bombards Pyongyang's trading partners with emails demanding that they explain their activity.

“We don't have subpoena power,” said Griffiths, a Briton who has spent his career investigating international crime for U.N., European Union and U.S. bodies. And the group is woefully understaffed for the size of the task, he said, with the same number of monitors as a U.N. team scrutinizing Somalia sanctions, despite having five times as many measures to track.

Still, the Griffiths team does have some teeth: It can recommend that the Security Council impose sanctions on companies and ships that violate the rules, a punishment that can hamper their ability to trade.

Some of the explanations the monitors receive are far-fetched. After the Shang Yuan Bao oil tanker was photographed transferring cargo through hoses to a North Korean vessel in May 2018, Griffiths contacted a Taiwan-based management company linked to the ship. According to the report, the company replied that it had used the hoses to provide drinking water to the North Korean ship, “based on humanitarian aid.”

Given that the ship's hoses are normally used for petroleum, the explanation was “not credible,” Griffiths said. “Anyone who has tried to drink petroleum-tainted water will tell you, you automatically retch,” he said.

In the case of the Wise Honest, a North Korean man named Jong Song Ho was central to the deal, the monitors said. In late 2017, he turned up for a meeting at North Korea's embassy in Jakarta, where North Korean diplomats introduced him to an Indonesian commodity trader named Hamid Ali.

Jong presented a business card introducing himself as president of Jinmyong Trading Group and Jinmyong Joint Bank in Pyongyang — the latter of which the United States hit with sanctions (https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0165.aspx) in 2017.

In early 2018, Ali and Jong met again in Jakarta and discussed a “trans-shipment of coal,” Ali told the monitors, according to the report. Jong then arranged to send $760,000 to Ali, via a company called Huitong Minerals, the report said. JPMorgan Chase helped facilitate this payment by acting as the correspondent bank in transfers, according to bank-transfer records obtained by the monitors.

Part of that money was a commission payment for helping arrange sale of the Wise Honest coal, Griffiths said.

Ali did not respond to The Washington Post's requests for comment. Jong and Huitong Minerals could not be reached for comment.

On March 11, 2018, a U.N. member state captured a photo of the Wise Honest being loaded with coal at a port in Nampo, North Korea.

After Indonesia detained the ship in April 2018, officials there told the monitors that a South Korean company, Enermax Korea, was the “final destination/recipient” of the coal, according to the report.

Enermax told the monitors it “simply received an offer of Indonesia-origin coal from someone who seemed to be a local broker in Indonesia.” Enermax did not respond to The Post's requests for comment.

Some ships carry on trading even after the Security Council places sanctions on them. In March 2018, the United Nations placed sanctions on a vessel registered in Dominica called the Yuk Tung, along with the Singaporean company that managed it, after the vessel traded with a North Korean ship. That punishment banned the Yuk Tung from all ports worldwide and effectively prohibited other ships from trading with it.

To keep operating in the East China Sea, the Yuk Tung painted a new name and a stolen identification number on its stern and falsely transmitted the stolen number. Meanwhile, the rightful owner of that ID was anchored in the Gulf of Guinea, more than 7,000 miles away, according to the monitors.

These tactics enabled the Yuk Tung to masquerade as the Maika and receive $5.7 million worth of petroleum in October from a Singaporean tanker controlled by one of the region's biggest commodities traders, Hin Leong Trading, Griffiths said. A U.N. member state told Griffiths's team it believed the petroleum was destined for North Korea.

The monitors said Hin Leong Trading, founded by Singaporean billionaire Lim Oon Kuin (https://www.forbes.com/profile/lim-oon-kuin/#7bd5330656ca), cooperated with their investigation and appeared to be an “unwitting party” to an illicit transaction, but Griffiths said the company is not doing all it could to vet its trading partners.

“We shall continue to strive to improve our procedures and operations to ensure that sanctions are never breached,” a spokesman for Hin Leong said by email.

A British insurer and banks from the United States and Singapore were also involved in the deal, the monitors said, declining to name them.

__________________________________________________________________________

• Jeanne Whalen (https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/jeanne-whalen) is The Washington Post's global business reporter. She joined The Post in 2018, after 19 years at The Wall Street Journal, where she reported from New York, London and Moscow. She has also written for the Financial Times and the Moscow Times. Whalen holds a BA degree in English from Cornell University.

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Kim Jong Un vows North Korea will withstand sanctions pressure (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kim-jong-un-vows-north-korea-will-withstand-sanctions-pressure-prove-self-reliance/2019/04/11/82674e82-5abe-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html)

• VIDEO: The Hanoi summit between Trump and Kim, in less than 4 minutes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/the-hanoi-summit-between-kim-jong-un-and-president-trump-in-less-than-4-minutes/2019/02/28/c8720ca1-5ace-4bc1-b910-aecdc5cdeb81_video.html)

• How a North Korean shipping ruse makes a mockery of sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/high-seas-shell-game-how-a-north-korean-shipping-ruse-makes-a-mockery-of-sanctions/2018/03/03/3380e1ec-1cb8-11e8-b2d9-08e748f892c0_story.html)

• How Russia quietly undercuts North Korea sanctions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-russia-quietly-undercuts-sanctions-intended-to-stop-north-koreas-nuclear-program/2017/09/11/f963867e-93e4-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/kim-jong-un-has-a-fleet-of-ghost-ships-sneaking-around-the-high-seas-to-beat-sanctions/2019/04/24/0b12ac56-5563-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/kim-jong-un-has-a-fleet-of-ghost-ships-sneaking-around-the-high-seas-to-beat-sanctions/2019/04/24/0b12ac56-5563-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html)

from The Washington Post…

Fast, low and hard to stop: North Korea's
missile tests crank up the threat level

Kim Jong Un has used a pause in the talks process — and a green light
from Trump — to significantly raise the danger his military poses.

By SIMON DENYER | 4:52AM EDT — Thursday, August 15, 2019

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/l6firDtMfu4jZbSRRzk_2aZkK3c=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/LW2X3JV7G4I6TODTMOWOMNVPBA.jpg) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/l6firDtMfu4jZbSRRzk_2aZkK3c=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/LW2X3JV7G4I6TODTMOWOMNVPBA.jpg)
North Korea test-fires a new weapon, seen here in a picture released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency this month.
— Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/via Kashmir News Service/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

TOKYO — President Trump has brushed off North Korea's resumption of missile launches, but the volley of tests in the past four months has significantly raised the country's military capabilities and the threat they pose to South Korea and U.S. forces on the peninsula, experts say.

On Friday, North Korea fired two “unidentified projectiles” into the sea, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, its sixth test since July 25. It also carried out two tests in May.

The launches have included at least two new types of short-range ballistic missiles and a mobile launcher that can fire multiple rockets. Pyongyang also has shown off a submarine (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-parades-new-submarine-sending-message-to-trump/2019/07/23/a163b210-acf5-11e9-9411-a608f9d0c2d3_story.html) that may be intended to carry nuclear warheads.

Trump says he has been told that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “only smiles when he sees me.” But photos released by North Korean state media show the dictator beaming from cheek to cheek at the successful tests.

“There's no question that the 2019 testing campaign that began in April has showcased some quite serious qualitative advancement in North Korean missile capabilities,” said Ankit Panda, an adjunct senior fellow in the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “The core theme across all of the new weapons seems to be survivability, responsiveness and missile-defense defeat.”

The weapons that North Korea has showcased, including a road-mobile short-range ballistic missile known as the KN-23, with a range of at least 280 miles, appear designed specifically to confound South Korea's missile-defense system.

“The three missiles have several things in common: They are solid fuel, they are mobile, they are fast, they fly low, and at least the KN-23 can maneuver in-flight, which is very impressive,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Any one of the missiles would pose a challenge to regional and [South Korean] missile defenses given these characteristics. Together, they pose a nightmare.”

On Wednesday, South Korea's Defense Ministry announced (https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190814003000325) that it would raise defense spending by an average of more than 7 percent a year for the next five years, with money set aside to improve its radar detection and missile capabilities, to “secure ample interception capabilities against new types of ballistic missiles North Korea has recently test-fired.”

South Korea's missile-defense system was primarily built around the threat posed by North Korea's older, comparatively clumsier Scud-class missiles. It includes U.S.-made mobile Patriot (https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/patriot) and PAC-3 missiles, the sea-based Aegis (https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/aegis) system and the land-based Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/thaad) (THAAD) system.

No system is impregnable, but North Korea's new missiles appear designed to find one of the biggest gaps in Seoul's armor.

Traditional ballistic missiles fly in an arc that takes them out of Earth's atmosphere. But the KN-23, which appears similar to the Russian Iskander missile, took a lower trajectory, spending much of its flight at an altitude of 25 to 30 miles — potentially too high for the Patriot batteries, but too low for THAAD and Aegis systems to easily intercept.

Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, scientist-in-residence at Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, said a ballistic missile flies in a predictable arc defined by gravity, just like a baseball thrown high into the air, making it easier to catch. The KN-23 is like a knuckleball — fast, low, unpredictable and almost impossible to catch.

That the latest missiles are solid-fueled makes them easier to deploy and fire on short notice: Liquid fuel is corrosive and less stable, and it has to be added to a missile just before launch, a process that can give an adversary vital warning. Solid-fuel rockets, mounted as these have been on vehicles, can be hidden, moved around at will and launched quickly, making them almost impossible to take out (https://thebulletin.org/2019/05/north-korean-missiles-size-does-not-matter) before they are fired.

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/iApvmH2ZRrARQuOzyoq3NGLtAyo=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/KRN2RXV7G4I6TODTMOWOMNVPBA.jpg) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/iApvmH2ZRrARQuOzyoq3NGLtAyo=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/KRN2RXV7G4I6TODTMOWOMNVPBA.jpg)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, seated, supervises the test-fire of a new weapon at an undisclosed location, in a photo released by North Korean
state media earlier in August. — Photograph: Korean Central News Agency/via Kashmir News Service/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images.

Although North Korea may not be able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead sufficiently to attach it to a missile such as the KN-23, conventional warheads that hit South Korean nuclear power plants could be devastating, experts say.

“I hope nuclear warheads will never be affixed to the KN-23, but if they are, it will be impossible for a threatened country to discriminate between an incoming nuke or high-explosive,” said Melissa Hanham, a missile expert at the One Earth Future Foundation. “This leads to a very destabilizing dynamic that will likely lead to escalation and pre-emptive action.”

Finally, the fact that North Korea fired off 10 of the KN-23 missiles during the past four months shows it has no shortage of inventory, Narang said, suggesting that Kim has kept a promise (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/14/kim-jong-un-is-doing-what-he-said-he-would) made at the beginning of last year to move to a new phase of mass-producing missiles and nuclear bombs.

Saturday's test appeared to show off a second type of short-range missile, which the state-run Korea Central News Agency described as a new weapon (http://www.kcna.kp/kcna.user.special.getArticlePage.kcmsf) that has an “advantageous tactical character different to the existing weapon systems.”

Jeffrey Lewis, a scholar at the Middlebury Institute, said it was too soon to be sure about this new weapon but said it looked like a different class of short-range missile, similar in shape but larger than the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System or Israel's Long Range Attack (LORA) missile.

But the tests have not only been designed to raise North Korea's military capabilities. They also have helped Kim bolster his reputation at home as a strongman determined to defend the regime's security.

Kim may have come under domestic pressure after not winning many concrete benefits from his engagement with the United States and his moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, experts say. This latest round of tests may have helped shore up that flank.

But the tests have had the added benefit of ramping up pressure on the United States to return to the negotiating table with a better offer than Trump presented in Hanoi in February. They can also help North Korea drive a diplomatic wedge between Washington and Seoul, by threatening South Korea without crossing any red line for Trump.

North Korea has insisted that its launches are merely a response to joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises. It says Trump had promised to halt those exercises when he met Kim. But it has reserved its most bitter vitriol (http://www.kcna.kp/kcna.user.article.retrieveNewsViewInfoList.kcmsf) for the South Koreans, labeling them warmongers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/07/25/north-korea-says-missile-test-was-warning-south-korea-warmongers) and pledging to exclude them from any future dialogue with the United States.

Trump has not leaped to the defense of his ally, nor of the military exercises. Instead, he has sided with North Korea by defending its right to test short-range missiles, boasting that Kim sent him another “beautiful letter” last week and explaining that he has “never been a fan” of the U.S.-South Korea war games because he doesn't like “paying” for them (https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/trump-sides-kim-criticism-us-skorea-war-games-doc-1jf6gx3).

__________________________________________________________________________

Related to this topic:

• Trump again appears to take North Korea's side against his own military, allies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/trump-again-appears-to-take-north-koreas-side-against-his-own-military-allies/2019/08/10/e5e50620-bb6c-11e9-8e83-4e6687e99814_story.html)

• North Korea's missile tests raise stakes for Trump's personal diplomacy with Kim (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-koreas-missile-tests-raise-stakes-for-trumps-personal-diplomacy-with-kim/2019/07/31/9fc6f3e8-b3b4-11e9-951e-de024209545d_story.html)

• North Korea announces firing of tactical guided weapon (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-announces-test-oftactical-guided-weapon/2019/04/17/1f27d682-615f-11e9-9412-daf3d2e67c6d_story.html)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/fast-low-and-hard-to-stop-north-koreas-missile-tests-crank-up-the-threat-level/2019/08/15/adf3f3e4-bdc3-11e9-aff2-3835caab97f6_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/fast-low-and-hard-to-stop-north-koreas-missile-tests-crank-up-the-threat-level/2019/08/15/adf3f3e4-bdc3-11e9-aff2-3835caab97f6_story.html)

from The Washington Post…

North Korea spits out insults, launches missiles and rejects talks with South

The latest volley of vitriol underlines how far from peace the Korean Peninsula is, as diplomatic detente stumbles.

By SIMON DENYER | 4:57AM EDT — Friday, August 16, 2019

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1111w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2019/08/16/Foreign/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Projectiles_55312.jpg-6a1d2-9726.jpg) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2019/08/16/Foreign/Images/South_Korea_North_Korea_Projectiles_55312.jpg-6a1d2-9726.jpg)
People at a Seoul train station on Friday watch a TV news program about Pyongyang's missile tests, showing an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
— Photograph: Lee Jin-Man/Associated Press.

TOKYO — North Korea spat out insults at South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday, rejected the idea of dialogue with Seoul and launched two more missiles into the sea, in the latest display of rage at joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises.

The volley of saber-rattling was another slap in the face for Moon, who spoke optimistically in a Liberation Day speech (http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=147429) a day earlier of his plans to “solidify denuclearization” of North Korea, initiate a “peace economy” and lay the foundations for the unification of the Korean Peninsula by 2045.

While North Korea has not closed the door to dialogue with the United States, its anger dampens expectations that Washington and Pyongyang can make meaningful progress in nuclear talks. Meanwhile, although Moon's relentlessly rosy view of relations with the North has helped smooth the path to dialogue, experts say his approach looks increasingly unrealistic.

“We will advance dialogue and cooperation so that seeds sown together with North Korea in the spring of peace will grow into trees of prosperity,” Moon said on Thursday, gliding over the continued sanctions on North Korea and the absence of steps by the regime to dismantle its nuclear program.

Pyongyang's response: its sixth missile launch in a little over three weeks and a barrage of insults at Moon over the military exercises whose aim, it said, was to annihilate its army.

“His open talk about ‘dialogue’ between the north and the south under such situation raises a question as to whether he has proper thinking faculty,” Pyongyang said in a statement from an unnamed spokesperson for its Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country. “He is, indeed, an impudent guy rare to be found.”

The statement, released by the Korean Central News Agency, also complained about drones and fighters purchased from the United States, and about plans announced this week to upgrade South Korea's missile capabilities.

“What is clear is that all of them are aimed at destroying the DPRK,” the statement said, referring to the country's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Pyongyang says the exercises break promises made by Moon and President Trump.

But experts say its petulance has been encouraged by Trump, who has defended Pyongyang's right to test missiles, denigrated Moon (https://nypost.com/2019/08/09/trump-cracks-jokes-about-rent-control-kamikaze-pilots-at-hamptons-fundraiser) and indicated his own opposition to the military exercises because he believes they are costing the United States too much.

North Korea resumed testing short-range ballistic missiles after the breakdown of the Hanoi summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un at the end of February. Security analysts say the Kim regime has used the tests to significantly improve its ability to attack South Korea and penetrate its missile defense shield. In particular, the North's KN-23 missile is designed to fly fast and low, making it particularly tough to detect and intercept, the analysts say.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it had observed two “projectiles” that flew about 140 miles up to an altitude of nearly 20 miles and appeared to be “short-range ballistic missiles,” although further analysis would be needed to confirm if they were the same as those launched previously.

Pyongyang's message was clear: Moon has no right to talk about peace while conducting military exercises. It called him a “mouse”, a “funny man” who only reads what his junior staff have written for him, and someone who gets “shocked into fright even by the sound of a sporting gun” going off in the North.

In April, Kim warned that the United States needed to change its approach if it wanted to make progress in nuclear talks, and gave Washington until the end of the year to come up with new proposals.

“I think the missile tests are designed to pressure Trump to make a better offer,” said Robert Kelly, a professor of international relations at Pusan National University in South Korea. “And Trump pretty clearly wants to.”

Kelly said Trump wants a deal he can sell to Fox News and his voters as a foreign policy triumph, even if it damages U.S. alliances in Asia, but he is surrounded by people such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton who take harder-line positions.

In an interview with Voice of America (https://www.voanews.com/usa/voa-interview-john-boltons-take-worlds-hotspots) this week, Bolton insisted that Washington would not be fooled. He said the United States wanted to see North Korea make a “clear strategic decision to give up its nuclear weapons and its delivery systems,” and then implement that decision.

“The pattern of North Korea leadership before Kim Jong Un is that they would make modest concessions on their nuclear program in exchange for tangible economic benefits,” Bolton said.

“And then once they had used those economic benefits — rescued their economy, stabilized leadership — they would fail to honor their own commitments on the nuclear side,” he told VOA. “If they think that they can do that again, I think they're making a big mistake.”

__________________________________________________________________________

• Simon Denyer (https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/simon-denyer) is The Washington Post's bureau chief in Tokyo, covering Japan and the Koreas. He served previously as bureau chief in China, and in India; a Reuters bureau chief in Washington, New Delhi, Islamabad and Kabul; and as a Reuters correspondent in Nairobi, New York and London. He is author of “Rogue Elephant: Harnessing the Power of India's Unruly Democracy” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/162040608X), and the co-editor of “Foreign Correspondent: Fifty Years of Reporting South Asia” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/067008204X). He has also made frequent TV and radio appearances, including on BBC, CNN, NPR, PBS, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC and Sky News, as well as India's NDTV, Times Now and CNN-IBN. Denyer holds a MA with honors in economics from Trinity College.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-spits-out-insults-launches-missiles-and-rejects-talks-with-south/2019/08/16/091fb920-bfd0-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-spits-out-insults-launches-missiles-and-rejects-talks-with-south/2019/08/16/091fb920-bfd0-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html)

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