In NZ, winter is cancelled … for now

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from Fairfax NZ....

Do forecasts of an extremely warm May
ahead mean 2016 might be winterless?

Unusually warm temperatures predicted for much of May,
but skifield operators are not panicking yet.

By PAUL GORMAN, EMILY SPINK and GEORGINA CAMPBELL | 8:02PM - Monday, 02 May 2016


Mount Hutt ski area manager James McKenzie says milder temperatures will not make “huge
difference” to the ski season. — Photograph: Nick Kerr/Fairfax NZ.

TEMPERATURES are picked to be up to 2 degrees Celsius higher on average this month, threatening weather records.

Weather forecasters say it could be a slow start to the ski season with unusually warm temperatures predicted across the country for much of May.

MetService forecaster Georgina Griffiths said the extended warm, dry spell was due to persistent high-pressure systems blocking to the east. That enabled very mild northerly winds to continue blowing from the north down the country.

The block was likely to be a major feature during the rest of May, although next week there were signs of a rain-bearing low pressure system heading this way. It was possible the last week of the month might bring rain.

“The May forecast is extremely warm. In some places temperature anomalies for the month look between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius higher as an average for the month. If these predictions are correct, we could be close to having record warmth for May,” Griffiths said.

“June will be the key month. If we don't start to see southerlies coming out of the southern ocean then, then we might not have a proper winter this year.”

Surfers were making the most of the warmer temperatures, with Scarborough's Hannah Wilson saying the fine weather was an incentive to keep hitting the waves.

“When it's a bluebird [coloured sky] day of course you are going to want to out there compared to when it's just clouds and you can't see.”


The leaves are falling but it still feels like summer in most parts of New Zealand.
 — Photograph: Joseph Johnson/Fairfax NZ.

The extended dry spell was not good news for farmers though, especially after a tough summer.

Farmer Dan Hodgen, of Hawarden in North Canterbury, said they had experienced severe feed shortages after drought-like conditions in January.

“The warmth is positive because there is a reduced need for feed but we need some rain at some point otherwise are not going to grow grass.”

Rangiora farmer Richard Smith said it was one of the driest autumns he could remember in his 30 years of farming.

“It's not as bad here because we do have irrigation … but the fact that we are irrigating at this time of year is practically unheard of.”

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research forecaster Chris Brandolino​ said some temperature records could fall over the next week to 10 days.

“Our seasonal climate outlook for the whole country says warmer than average for the three-month period May-June-July. That doesn't mean there won't be cold snaps or frosts.”

“People can save money on their power bill but it could be a slow start to the ski season.”


Manganui Ski Area in its prime during the winter of 2015. — Photograph: Charlotte Curd/Fairfax NZ.

Blue Skies Weather forecaster Tony Trewinnard​ said there was little doubt this month would be warm, although he expected rainy conditions might return later in May or next month.

“The Southern Ocean south of New Zealand is significantly colder now and will likely stay that way through the winter. That means when cold southerlies do arrive, and they will eventually, they could be colder than normal — snow-producing southerlies.”

Mount Hutt ski area manager James McKenzie said milder temperatures over the next couple of weeks would not make a “huge difference” to the ski season.

“The key thing will be if we get the precipitation. Temperature-wise we're fine. We're certainly not concerned at this stage.”

Porters Ski Area general manager Uli Dinsenbacher said with two months to go before the season opened, “anything can happen”.

“We've had seasons before where we've had mild temperatures in April and May. It only needs one cold snap and one cold front and it changes all that.”

__________________________________________________________________________

Related stories:

 • NIWA predicts above-average temperatures to start winter

 • Warm weather sees pests booming with 10cm spiders and ‘two-foot rats’

http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/79503291

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

from The Press....

Mount Hutt rues loss of ‘best snow in years’,
but still plans to open Saturday

Norwest winds and hot temperatures have stripped Mount Hutt bare.

By ASHLEIGH STEWART | 10:20AM - Friday, 10 June 2016


Mount Hutt's webcam is a dire picture the day before opening day, but ski area staff
aren't worried. — Photograph: NZSki.

WHAT a difference five days can make.

Despite its ridge line being stripped bare of its “best snow in years”, Mount Hutt staff remain optimistic and are still preparing for opening on Saturday.

Less than two weeks ago, Hutt and its surrounding skifields were celebrating what could be their best opening day in years, after receiving 50 centimetres of snowfall in 48 hours.

However, no snow has fallen since May 30th, and the snow base has depleted from more than one metre to 25cm on the lower mountain and 80cm on the upper.

High temperatures and northerly winds have caused much of the snow on the upper mountain to disappear. Its webcam paints a grim picture of mostly brown rock on the upper trails.

A balmy Friday forecast for a high of 6 degrees Celsius on the mountain could decrease the snow base further.

But ski area manager James McKenzie said there was still plenty of the white stuff around for snow bunnies on Saturday.

“Our main trails are still holding out.”

“You never say never, but at this stage we are good for opening.”

McKenzie said the weather system over the past few days had been “disappointing”, but said they were in a worse position last year.


Mount Hutt looked a lot different after heavy snowfall on May 30th. — Photograph: NZSki.

Hutt had to delay its opening by a day in 2015 too, because of norwest winds.

A massive snow storm that dumped nearly 3 metres of snow on the ski area then caused chaos, triggering avalanches, blanketing the access road and forcing the ski field to close for several days.

“We are in a slightly better place than we were last year. We couldn't open the summit 6 last year.”

McKenzie said groomers would head out onto the trails on Friday night to push up the snow pack.

While they were initially set to have all lifts running on open day this year, only the Summit 6 and quad chairlift would now be operating.

Metservice is forecasting gale westerlies and high cloud for Saturday. However, more snowfall was expected on Sunday.

Staff were not worried about the visible rocks on the upper mountain, because it could change at any moment.

“We've seen it all before — we've seen it when it goes like this and then it all comes back and it's all good again. We're not fretting in any way,” McKenzie said.

__________________________________________________________________________

Read more on this topic:

 • Gale warnings for the North Island, heavy rain for the South Island

 • Mountain snow melts thanks to warm winter morning and a splash of rain

 • Unexpected snow storm welcomed ahead of season start for Canterbury fields

 • Do forecasts of an extremely warm May ahead mean 2016 might be winterless?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/80923834

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

It is currently 20 degrees Celcius at my place, exactly as forecast for today. Further north up the east coast, the temperature forecast for today was for 23°C in both Hawke's Bay and Gisborne. Not bad for winter, eh?

In Wairarapa, it is a mixture of blue skies and clouds, with occasional passing showers, but the nor'wester is blowing. The sky looks pretty dark to the northwest over the Tararua Ranges, though. I'd say it is most likely pissing-down in the mountains.

[ssweetpea]

I was going to pack away my summer clothes today.

Instead I am sitting here in a t-shirt with bare arms and with bare feet.